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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000246 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: CONGRESS WILL FLY SOLO, NOT AS 
UPA 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  The Congress Party has decided to fight 
coming parliamentary elections mostly alone and not as the 
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) alliance; it will only seek 
case-by-case seat-sharing understandings with allies at the 
state level.  In making this decision, the Congress Party 
objective is to strengthen its position in seat-sharing 
negotiations with its UPA allies, check their growing 
national ambitions, and signal to smaller non-UPA parties 
that it will be ready to deal after the elections if they can 
pick up a few seats.  End Summary. 
 
Going it Alone 
-------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) The Congress Working Committee (CWC), the highest 
decision-making body of the Congress Party, formally decided 
on January 29 to contest the coming parliamentary elections 
without nationwide pre-poll alliances with any other party. 
Instead, it will consider "state-specific" seat sharing 
arrangements with regional allies on a case-by-case basis. 
Congress Party spokesman Janardhan Dwivedi made this 
announcement after a Sonia Gandhi-chaired CWC meeting that 
included the party's top strategists such as Rahul Gandhi, 
Digvijay Singh, and Ahmed Patel. 
 
Poll Positioning 
---------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) The Congress Party announcement came as Indian 
political parties began to fine-tune their election 
strategies ahead of the campaign that will begin in March for 
polls that are expected to take place between mid-April and 
mid-May.  It came only a few days ahead of rallies held by 
the Congress Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to 
kick off the campaigns.  It is one of a steady stream of 
jockeying, feints, maneuvers and deals and counter-deals we 
will see play out as political parties try to position 
themselves for the elections and post-election coalition 
formation in May. 
 
Pushing Back National Aspirations 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) At a January 30 lunch hosted by PolCouns for 
several prominent journalists who cover domestic politics 
there was general agreement that this move was a bid by the 
Congress Party to reassert itself as the "big boy in the 
crowd" and the only "national" party among its dozen plus 
coalition partners.   The journalists felt that the Congress 
Party was forced to publicly announce this strategy in order 
to check the increasing ambitions of regional allies who were 
eyeing parliamentary seats in areas outside their traditional 
strongholds.  In particular Sharad Pawar's Nationalist 
Congress Party (NCP) and Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi 
Party (SP) have been demanding dozens of seats beyond their 
areas of strength in Maharashtra/Meghalya and Uttar Pradesh 
(UP).  The NCP has claimed 45 seats nationwide and projected 
Pawar as its Prime Ministerial candidate. 
 
SP-Congress Tussle Rages On 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The Congress and the SP are locked in long-running 
and often testy negotiations on a pre-poll alliance.  SP 
leader Amar Singh complained to PolCouns that the Congress 
Party is being difficult and unreasonable in its demands in 
UP and what it is willing to give the SP outside of UP.  He 
said he wants to partner with the Congress but is starting to 
look for other allies if the Congress Party maintains its 
rigid position.  In this context, he gloated about inducing 
the defection from the BJP of Kalyan Singh, who served as BJP 
 
NEW DELHI 00000246  002 OF 002 
 
 
chief minister of UP in the 1990s and has a considerable 
following within the small but powerful Lodh caste in the 
state. 
 
UPA Break-up 
------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The journalists were not surprised at the Congress 
Party's announcement.  Aditi Phadnis, who covers domestic 
politics for the Business Times, told PolCouns that this 
marks the "collapse of the UPA."  She said the "break-up" was 
inevitable now that the government had run its full five year 
course and each member of the coalition now feels compelled 
to sharpen its positions which had been dulled and submerged 
as the parties operated in a multi-party coalition with 
partners of many ideological hues. 
 
Comment: Short Term Tactics 
--------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The Congress Party decision to reject any national 
pre-poll alliances with its UPA partners reflects its 
assessment of its short term prospects and long term 
interests.  In the near term, if the Congress chose to fight 
the election as part of the UPA coalition instead of on its 
own, it would in effect be freezing itself at its 2004 
strength.  The party has assessed that it is now far stronger 
than it was in 2004, especially relative to many of its UPA 
partners, especially Karunanidhi's DMK in the south, Lalu 
Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar and Sharad 
Pawar's NCP in Maharashtra.  The decision to go it alone 
allows the Congress Party to play tough with its allies on 
seat-sharing because it knows the allies need the Congress 
Party more than it needs them.  With such pressure, the party 
believes its can get better terms in state-level pre-poll 
alliances and thus improve its chances of defending or 
improving on its current strength in Parliament. 
 
Comment: Long Term Strategy 
--------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The Congress Party also understands that in the long 
term it is vital that its allies be kept in their regional 
boxes.  If any of the allies begin to go "national" by 
gaining strength in areas outside their traditional bases, 
their growth will inevitably come at the expense of the 
Congress Party because it occupies the same ideological space 
as most of its UPA allies. It is logical then for the 
Congress Party to foreclose any nationwide alliances with its 
UPA partners, especially at a point when the partners are 
relatively weaker than the Congress Party itself. 
 
Comment: Opening up the Bazaar 
------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Congress Party decision to keep its allies at 
arms length by rejecting full-grown national alliances is 
also intended to keep its options open in the coalition 
formation maneuvers that will follow the elections.  It is a 
clear signal to the dozens of other smaller non-UPA regional 
parties that doors may be open for them in a new Congress-led 
configuration after the elections if they can win some seats. 
 Many of these regional parties can easily coexist in a 
coalition with the Congress Party but not with one or another 
of the UPA allies with which they battle in the particular 
state or region. 
MULFORD