VZCZCXYZ0011
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMN #0060/01 0331023
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021023Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8760
INFO RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000060 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: STRUGGLE FOR RULING COALITION 
NOMINATION 
 
REF: A. 08 MONTEVIDEO 704 
     ¶B. 08 MONTEVIDEO 587 
 
¶1. (U) This telegram is sensitive but unclassified, and not 
for Internet distribution. 
 
Summary 
- - - - 
 
¶2. (SBU) For the first time in at least three election 
cycles, Uruguay's ruling Frente Amplio (Broad Front) 
coalition faces an internal struggle for the coalition's 
nomination for president for the October 2009 elections. 
Front-running Senators Jose Mujica and Danilo Astori are 
facing an unexpected and developing challenge from two 
would-be third candidates:  Marcos Carambula, administrator 
of Uruguay's second-largest department; and Daniel Martinez, 
Minister of Industry and Energy.  Polls indicate considerable 
support for allowing a third candidate to compete in June 
primaries.  The identity of that third candidate will likely 
emerge following a Socialist Party congress February 7. 
Polls also show that such a candidate faces an uphill 
struggle to win the primary, and would instead probably play 
a spoiler's role.  End Summary. 
 
There's Space for a Third Candidate 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3. (U) Uruguay's ruling Frente Amplio (FA) coalition is 
slowly whittling down its list of potential candidates for a 
national primary election in June.  Ref A reported on the 
results of December's FA Congress, at which former Tupamaro 
guerrilla and now Senator Jose Mujica received strong support 
and was named the FA's official nominee.  That designation, 
however, did not slam the door on four other hopefuls, listed 
here in order of the level of support each garnered at the 
Congress: Marcos Carambula, governor of Uruguay's 
second-largest department; Danilo Astori, senator and 
President Vazquez's ex-minister of economy; Minister of 
Industry and Energy Daniel Martinez; and GOU planning 
director Enrique Rubio. 
 
¶4. (U) For much of the past year, most local pundits 
considered the quest for the FA presidential candidacy a 
two-man race between Mujica and Astori.  However, Astori's 
poor showing at the FA Congress, where he managed only 22 
percent approval, and a fear among many moderate FA 
supporters that a Mujica candidacy would be too polarizing to 
succeed in a general election (Ref B), have opened the door 
to the other challengers.  Pollsters see space for a third 
candidate, with a significant proportion of FA supporters -- 
almost 30 percent -- either not supporting either Mujica or 
Astori or indicating a willingness to consider other options. 
 Rubio withdrew from consideration soon after the FA 
Congress, so if there is a third FA candidate it will be 
either Carambula or Martinez. 
 
The Path to Possibility 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5. (SBU) The FA is confronting a challenge -- picking a 
candidate -- that it hasn't had to worry about for at least 
the last three election cycles, during which President 
Vazquez was always the undisputed leader going into the 
process (Astori competed in the primary in 1999, but that was 
only a symbolic run).  Gaining the nomination of this 
unwieldy coalition of over twenty political parties is 
therefore a complicated process that will continue to unfold 
over the coming months.  The Socialist Party appears to be 
the key to determining who will emerge as the FA's third 
candidate.  That party will have its party congress February 
7, and the candidacy of whoever emerges with its backing is 
expected to continue, while the loser's will likely be 
stillborn. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Socialist Party itself is hotly divided. 
President Vazquez resigned from the party shortly after the 
Socialists came out in favor of Martinez in November.  Some 
party members still support Martinez, but Carambula has a 
broader base of support outside of the Socialist Party, which 
could lead delegates hoping for a viable third candidate to 
support him.  Further complicating the situation, many 
Socialist leaders previously had declared for Astori. 
 
Who Will Get Hurt? 
- - - - - -  - - - 
 
¶7. (SBU) A third candidate in any race usually ends up taking 
 
a disproportionate amount of votes from one of his two 
opponents.  In this instance, many analysts consider that 
both possible third candidates would siphon more votes from 
Astori than from Mujica.  The reasoning is that Mujica's 
voting base on the far left will stick with him no matter 
what, while Astori's supporters are considered less loyal. 
Astori was also the face behind an unpopular tax reform 
during his tenure as economy minister, so many who favor his 
candidacy only because they see him as a lesser evil compared 
to Mujica will be susceptible to the charms of either 
possible third candidate. 
 
Comment:  A Likely Outcome 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶8. (SBU) These unusual machinations are driven by the FA's 
search for the strongest candidate.  However, Mujica and 
Astori are two of the three most popular politicians in 
Uruguay (the other is President Vazquez), according to local 
polling, so it would be a real surprise for another candidate 
to win the primaries.  It is also unlikely that the usually 
disciplined FA will allow its own to engage in the sort of 
mudslinging that would negatively affect any of its 
candidates in the general election.  Instead, many analysts 
see this working out harmoniously, with the third candidate 
who emerges selected as the eventual running mate of either 
Mujica or Astori, thereby creating a balanced ticket with a 
broader general election appeal.  End Comment. 
 
Bio Notes 
- - - - - 
 
9) (SBU) Marcos Gustavo CARAMBULA Volpi:  Carambula is the 
intendente (a role that combines the responsibilities of 
governor and mayor) of the Department of Canelones, the 
second most populous of Uruguay's nineteen departments.  He 
was a member of the Communist Party for twenty years before 
handing in his membership card in 1994, and subsequently 
joined the FA's Alianza Progresista faction, currently headed 
by Vice President Nin Novoa.  He is a workaholic who enjoys 
interaction with people, and is seen as open-minded, 
tolerant, and understanding. 
 
Apart from politics, Carambula is a medical doctor 
(allergist/immunologist) who studied in Buenos Aires and 
Tokyo.  During Uruguay's years of dictatorship (1973-1985), 
Carambula won a scholarship to Switzerland, but was denied a 
passport to travel.  He was president of the Sindicato 
Medico, Uruguay's largest private health provider, from 
2003-2005. 
 
Carambula is married, and has four sons and a daughter. 
 
10) (SBU) Daniel Carlos MARTINEZ Villamil:  Martinez has been 
Secretary of Industry and Energy since March 2008.  Before 
that appointment, he headed Uruguay's state-run energy, 
alcohol, and cement company (ANCAP) for three years.  He has 
been a member of Uruguay's Socialist Party since 1973, and 
has been a member of that party's executive secretariat. 
 
Martinez earned an engineering degree from Uruguay's 
University of the Republic in 1981.  He has dual citizenship: 
French and Uruguayan.  That circumstance has not yet been a 
factor in his political life.  In addition to Spanish, 
Martinez speaks English, Portuguese, and French. 
 
Martinez is married, and has three daughters. 
Matthewman