VZCZCXYZ0008
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTO #0320/01 0581134
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 271134Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0070
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0356
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS MAPUTO 000320 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EPET MZ
SUBJECT: FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER ON INTERNAL POLITICS 
 
REF: 08 MAPUTO 1250 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: The Charge d'Affaires met with Dr. 
Leonardo Simao, Executive Director of the Joaquim Chissano 
Foundation and former Minister of Foreign Affairs under 
President Chissano on February 19.  Simao denied press 
reports of any splintering within ruling party Frelimo, 
predicted the imminent demise of Renamo, and anticipated that 
a new political party led by popular mayor of Beira Daviz 
Simango would grow quickly with membership ultimately 
exceeding that of Renamo at its zenith. Dr. Simao also gave 
an overview of a proposed South African-Mozambican project to 
build an $8 billion refinery on the coast of central 
Mozambique.  Simao's in-depth analysis of Frelimo challenges 
and muted denials of party splintering suggest that internal 
problems in the party might be well-founded.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------- 
FRELIMO WILL NOT SPLINTER 
------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Simao said press reports of splintering within the 
ranks of majority party Frelimo were unfounded.  He stated 
that nearly all party members are employees of the government 
and face the loss of their jobs if they dissent, even 
internally; this connection keeps them tightly tied to the 
party in power.  He steadfastly denied that former President 
Chissano and he were planning to break away from Frelimo, 
claiming that rumors to that the effect had been started by 
disgruntled Frelimo members hoping to force former President 
Chissano into just such an action. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
FRELIMO, GOVERNMENT INCREAINGLY CENTRALIZED 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Simao stated that the major challenge facing 
Frelimo is the transition of power to the post-war 
generation.  Frelimo has become more centralized since the 
Chissano presidency, he said, noting that all governing is 
done from the top down, e.g. Ministers receive marching 
orders directly from the President, with little room for 
independence.  Simao described Guebuza as a cold figure with 
whom it was difficult to engage in real debate.  Noting the 
year-long celebrations in 2009 honoring the founder of 
Frelimo Eduardo Mondlane, he argued that Frelimo has shifted 
focus to its history, rather than looking to the future, in 
an attempt to assuage the old guard.  This shift has left 
party intellectuals feeling disenfranchised as they urge a 
focus on the future. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
DEMISE OF RENAMO, EMERGENCE OF A NEW PARTY 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Simao said that he viewed opposition party Renamo 
as a spent force and nearly defunct. He observed that party 
chief Afonso Dhklama is a soldier not a party leader, and 
does not have the leadership or intellectual ability to allow 
for ideas different to his--which has weakened Renamo beyond 
repair. On the other hand, Simao predicted the rapid growth 
of a new party to be led by Beira Mayor Daviz Simango 
(reftel), estimating that it will exceed the size of Renamo 
at its peak.  The party would draw membership, Simango 
suggested, from urban, young, educated, upwardly mobile, 
middle class Mozambicans who are frustrated with the 
government's inflexibility and are looking for a way to 
transition into power. 
 
----------------------------------- 
OILMOZ: ANOTHER PETROLEUM REFINERY? 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Simango, a lead investor in consortium of 
Mozambicans seeking to build an 8 billion USD oil refinery 
along the southern coast of Mozambique, indicated that the 
government recently granted the consortium, known as OILMOZ, 
a 2-year window in which to design and finance the project. 
As currently envisioned, Shell Trade International along with 
Shell Global Solutions would provide the crude oil and agree 
to buy back at least 70% of production, moving the oil to 
South Africa through the Mozambique-South African pipeline 
currently under construction.  By Simao's own admission, 
OILMOZ has little capital; instead it intends to use the 
Shell participation to leverage the funding needed to 
construct the refinery.  OILMOZ aims to present the project 
to financiers in the near future. 
--------------------------------------------- - 
COMMENT: FRELIMO INTERNAL PROBLEMS MAY BE REAL 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Simao remains a close ally of former President 
Joaquim Chissano and is still active in Frelimo politics.  He 
spoke surprisingly freely about the current internal 
situation of the party. While he denied (in muted terms) the 
possible split of the Frelimo party rumored by the press, he 
was quick to critique the current leadership and explain in 
great detail why many would leave Frelimo.   He has clearly 
thought through the transition of power from the old guard to 
the new and the concomitant need for greater opportunities 
for Mozambique's growing, young, educated middle class.  He 
intimated that he believes that Mozambique's continued growth 
as a democracy is contingent on further economic growth, 
which in turn would give voters greater confidence to vote 
against the ruling party.  For a life-long political leader 
of Frelimo to speak so critically about his own party is rare 
indeed, but is reflective of the discontent of some 
factions---especially the Chissano faction---within Frelimo 
about the direction of the country. 
Chapman