VZCZCXRO9177
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0234/01 0531143
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 221143Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3026
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000234 
 
DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E, DRL 
NSC FOR CHUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ELECTORAL COMMISSION STILL AIMS FOR ELECTIONS IN 
2009 
 
REF: Khartoum 137 
 
1.(SBU) Summary.  UNMIS reports that it continues to develop a good 
relationship with the National Electoral Commission (NEC), and that 
the Commission is intent on holding elections in 2009.  Although 
severely understaffed and without its own operating budget, the NEC 
leadership has begun to make headway in naming some members of the 
twenty-six high-level electoral committees on the state and 
southern-Sudan level.  NCP official Ibrahim Ghandour claims that no 
parties, other than the NCP and the National Umma Party, want 
elections to take place, due to eroding party bases, the economic 
downturn, and internal party strife.  Ghandour said the NCP has 
reached out to the SPLM for a coalition in the upcoming elections, 
but that the SPLM "does not know what it wants to do."  End 
Summary. 
 
ELECTORAL PREPARATION MOVES FORWARD, ALBEIT SLOWLY 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  -  - - - - - - - 
¶2. (SBU) The Electoral Assistance Group, chaired by UNMIS Chief 
Electoral Affairs Officer Ray Kennedy, met in Khartoum on 19 
February to discuss the latest developments on preparation for the 
Sudanese elections.  Kennedy said that the relationship between the 
National Electoral Commission (NEC) and UNMIS Electoral Affairs 
staff continues to develop, but is not "quite where we [UNMIS] want 
it yet."  According to Kennedy, this is partly because the NEC still 
remains "severely understaffed," with only ten employees (nine NEC 
members and the Secretary General).  Kennedy said that the NEC 
submitted a formal budget request for its operating expenses (but 
not yet for the elections) to the Government of National Unity (GNU) 
Presidency only last week.  While Kennedy did not know the amount of 
the NEC's budget request, he did say that there is "no expectation" 
by the NEC that what it requested will be fully funded by the GNU 
Ministry of Finance. [Note:  The NEC is currently working off of 
money left over from the General Election Authority budget.  End 
Note.] 
 
¶3. (SBU) Currently, the NEC is prioritizing the recruitment of staff 
for the twenty-six electoral high committees at the state and 
southern Sudan level.  According to Kennedy, the Commission has 
identified at least five names for each high committee (twenty to 
twenty-five names per committee are needed.)  The NEC members intend 
to travel to each state as part of the high committee identification 
process. 
In terms of constituency delimitation, the Commission has been told 
that it will receive the figures it needs from the final census 
results "within the next few days" in order to start the process. 
[Note:  This process could be delayed if there is ardent 
disagreement between the SPLM and the NCP on the final census 
figures.  End note.] 
 
¶4. (SBU) Kennedy said that the Commission is nearing its completion 
of a notional timetable for the elections and continues to pledge 
that it will deal with obstacles "as they arise."  He reported that 
there is a "very strong desire" by the NEC to hold elections in 
¶2009.  Kennedy also said that the Commission members have indicated 
that a 9 July date for elections "cannot be feasibly reached."  The 
UNMIS Electoral Chief lamented to electoral donors that a 
significant amount of 2009 dry season time has already been lost. 
Kennedy said UNMIS has voiced its concerns to the NEC about the 
constraints of holding key activities, such as voter registration 
and/or elections, during the rainy season. In response, the NEC 
Deputy Chair Abdalla Abdalla (also a Dean of the School of 
Agriculture at University of Khartoum) claimed that the period 
between 15 July and 15 October is the only time when operations 
cannot be conducted.  UNMIS electoral staff in Juba beg to differ, 
saying that the non-operating time in southern Sudan due to the 
rainy season is much longer than what Abdalla is willing to 
acknowledge. 
 
UNMIS ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶5. (SBU) Kennedy told donors that so far UNMIS has provided the NEC 
with:  a voter registration strategy document with various options 
for voter registration, a catalog of electoral rules, regulations 
and procedures that need to be developed by the NEC, fact sheets on 
the basic elements of elections, maps to use for the process of 
constituency delimitation, and communication and civic and voter 
education strategies. 
 
¶6. (SBU) According to Kennedy, the UNMIS electoral affairs unit is 
up to 75 or 80 staff, with a new person joining the team almost 
every day.  Kennedy is working with UNDP to find a way to bring 75 
UN volunteers on board to be posted in northern Sudan during the 
electoral process. [Note: Kennedy currently does not have the budget 
 
KHARTOUM 00000234  002 OF 002 
 
 
to do this, but UNDP may.  End note.]  UNMIS has still not received 
the GNU invitation to assist in the elections that it needs to fully 
carry out its mission.  Kennedy believes this is due to the lack of 
organization at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), where the 
draft invitation was last seen.  The NEC Deputy Chairman has been 
frustrated by the MFA's sluggishness in reviewing, signing off on, 
and sending the invitation to UNMIS.  He told Kennedy that the NEC 
would write another invitation for the MFA's review if need be. 
 
NCP THOUGHTS ON THE ELECTION 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶7. (SBU) Poloff met with NCP lead electoral negotiator Ibrahim 
Ghandour on 19 February.  Ghandour, who is also a National Assembly 
member, the President of the Sudan Workers Trade Unions Federation, 
and a key party financier claimed that most Sudanese political 
parties "still do not want elections."  He said that the SPLM is 
nervous about elections.  He cited as reasons  the current economic 
crisis and the party's resulting lack of resources, internal 
differences within the party, and the SPLM's waning tribal support 
in the South (particularly among the Shilluk.)  Ghandour claimed 
that the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) - Mirghani Sect is 
"shattered" as a party and is no longer receiving significant 
financial or ideological support from Egypt thus is not well-poised 
for elections.  Finally, while the Communist Party currently enjoys 
representation in the National Assembly, it does not have the base 
it needs to get Communist party candidates re-elected to positions 
of power.  Ghandour said that only the NCP and the National Umma 
Party truly want elections.  According to the NCP heavyweight, Umma 
only wants elections because as it currently has no representation 
in the national government, it stands to lose nothing. 
 
¶8. (SBU) If elections don't happen on time, said Ghandour, the 
reason will bd that the parties are not willing to conduct them in a 
timely fashion.  Ghandour said that the NCP has asked the SPLM to 
join it as a partner in "the driver's seat" for elections. 
According to Ghandour, the SPLM responded that the NCP is making the 
same arrangement with the National Umma Party.  Ultimately, said 
Ghandour, "the SPLM doesn't know what it wants to do." 
 
¶9. (SBU) Comment: While preparations move forward slowly, there is 
significant concern that elections could be unnecessarily rushed and 
held by the CPA date of July 2009 (in the middle of the rainy 
season.)  Rushed elections earlier in the year would give the NCP an 
even greater advantage over other parties than it already has, and 
provide much needed political legitimacy to a beleaguered President 
Bashir sooner rather than later.  The problem is that neither the 
NCP nor the SPLM wants to be the party to be blamed for a delay, so 
they are in the midst of tortuous discussions on timing.  The 
referendum also plays into this discussion;  the SPLM is seeking 
guarantees on a firm  referendum date in exchange for reaching an 
understanding with the NCP on timing and a potential lineup for the 
elections which could very well keep the status quo in place. End 
comment. 
 
FERNANDEZ