VZCZCXRO7671
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0223 0510832
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 200832Z FEB 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3003
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000223 
 
DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: ANNOUNCEMENT OF CENSUS RESULTS TO BE DELAYED AT LEAST UNTIL 
MID-MARCH 
 
REF: KHARTOUM 154 
 
¶1. (SBU) On 16 February the Fifth Population Census of Sudan 
Technical Working Group (TWG) met in Khartoum to review the national 
census priority results and make a decision on whether the results 
should be forwarded to the National Population Census Council 
(NPCC).  At the meeting, the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) 
Director Yasin Abdeen indicated that the results should be forwarded 
to the NPCC for its review and endorsement, while Southern Sudan 
Center for the Census and Statistical Evaluation (SSCCSE) Isaiah 
Chol strongly disagreed and explained that the data should be 
properly analyzed and undergo thorough consistency checks by 
technical experts before being delivered to the NPCC.  According to 
Chol and SSCCSE technical experts, the latter have not had enough 
time since the merge of North and South data files in Khartoum 
(which took place in late January and early February) to run 
critical checks and perform data analysis required to  conclude 
whether the data are reasonable or unreasonable.  According to Legal 
Advisor to the Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) Dr. Iris 
Breutz, "time [at the TWG] was wasted on discussions that should 
have taken place between [technical] experts before the meeting." 
 
¶2. (SBU) According to USAIDoff and Breutz, both of whom attended the 
TWG, the SSCCSE contests some of the northern data (gathered and 
data-processed by the CBS) because it shows peculiar trends, such as 
a relatively small number of Southerners living in northern Sudan 
and high population figures for Darfur, despite the fact this region 
was not fully enumerated (reftel).  The SSCCSE has also questioned 
the iethod the CBS used for enumerating nomads because the North's 
nomadic population data were surprisingly high. Both donors and the 
Census Monitoring and Observation Committee (MOC) Chairman urged the 
CBS and the SSCCSE to reach a unified position and technical 
solutions for determining whether the data are sound before moving 
it on to the NPCC for its endorsement.  At the end of the day-long 
TWG, an agreement was reached that the northern and southern census 
bodies, together with international experts currently present at the 
UN Population Fund (UNFPA), will meet to decide upon procedures for 
checking the quality of the merged national data.  They will then 
proceed with running data checks and analysis in order to reach a 
final data set with which both sets of analysts are satisfied.  It 
was also agreed that the TWG will reconvene to review the results of 
the further data analysis during the first week of March (although 
this date may slip if the technical experts deem more time is 
necessary to run data checks in order to reach the determination 
baseline). 
 
¶3. (SBU) USAIDoff told poloff on 17 February that the CBS and the 
SSCCSE have still not exchanged raw, unedited data files.  While the 
SSCCSE is amenable to making an exchange, the Director of the CBS 
refuses to do so, arguing that mutual trust of each side's data 
should be enough.  The absence of a north/south raw data file 
exchange creates a serious lack of transparency in the final merged 
data figures and provides an additional reason for the SSCCSE to be 
skeptical of the North's data.  SSCCSE Director Chol told Consul 
General Datta on 18 February in Juba that the CBS' refusal to 
provide raw data to the SSCCSE is a blatant attempt by the North to 
manipulate the final census numbers.  Chol also said that if the CBS 
continues to refuse to hand over unedited data files for the North, 
it is likely that the SSCCSE will not accept the final census 
results and will refuse to participate in their release. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Comment:  While final census figures were expected to be 
released in February, the lack of agreement between the census 
bodies to submit the data to the NPCC this month means that final 
census figures will not be released until mid-March, at the 
earliest.  Anomalies in the northern data are of serious concern to 
the Southern and international experts and without the CBS' consent 
to hand over its raw, unedited data file to the SSCCSE (and vice 
versa), there is little chance that anomalies will be adequately 
resolved.  It is also unlikely that the CBS and the SSCCSE will 
reach a unified position on whether the data are conclusively 
"reasonable" or "unreasonable" given these anomalies and the lack of 
transparency of the figures.  In the event of a disagreement over 
the census figures and a likely Government of Southern Sudan 
rejection of the official results, the USG should encourage the 
parties to move past this disagreement as quickly as possible and 
continue to prepare in earnest for the upcoming elections (reftel). 
 
 
FERNANDEZ