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O 091106Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2935
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000182 
 
DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, DRL 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EAID KDEM KPKO UNSC SU
SUBJECT: 40th AEC Plenary:  Legislation, Census, Abyei, and Foreign 
Exchange 
 
REF:  KHARTOUM 129 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: At the Assessment and Evaluation Commission's (AEC) 
40th plenary session on February 3, the NCP and SPLM provided status 
reports on pending CPA-related legislation (notably the southern 
referendum law), and plans to announce census results by the end of 
February.  The SPLM refused to commit itself to accepting the census 
results when released.  An abbreviated discussion of Abyei focused 
on the need to rapidly disburse revenues to the Abyei 
administration, and the AEC chairman and the U.S. highlighted their 
as yet unsuccessful efforts to schedule a Wealth Sharing Working 
Group meeting to focus on that issue.  CPA partners urged the GNU 
and GoSS to resolve the dispute over foreign exchange reserves as 
rapidly as possible, to avoid it escalating into a political crisis 
between the parties.   END SUMMARY. 
 
Chairman's Introduction 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶2. (U) AEC Chairman Derrick Plumbly remarked that there is a full 
CPA-implementation agenda in 2009.  Of immediate concern, he noted 
continued tensions in Southern Kordofan as an important issue that 
deserves special attention.  He reported that Southern Kordofan's 
governor is discussing developments there with both the SPLM and NCP 
and he noted the need for transparency and for UNMIS proactivity in 
the area.  Plumbly also acknowledged the upcoming Juba roundtable 
that will launch the Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration 
program in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile states.  He ended his 
introduction by noting that the AEC also is awaiting a response to 
its offer of assistance to the National Election Commission. 
 
Pending Legislation 
- - - - - - - - - - 
¶3.  (U) In an extended discussion of pending legislation, 
SPLM-appointed State Minister for Justice Wek Mamer Kuol reported 
that draft laws on the criminal courts, the Human Rights Commission 
and the Land Commission have been agreed to by the two CPA parties, 
approved by the Council of Ministers and are now before the National 
Assembly.  The parties continue to disagree about points in the key 
Security Bill, notably regarding the power of arrest.  He stated 
that the SPLM also has shared with the NCP drafts of laws on the 
2011 referendum on southern self-determination, the Abyei 
referendum, and popular consultations in Southern Kordofan and 
Southern Blue Nile states.  Responding to a question, SPLM 
representative Kosti Manibe affirmed that the National Assembly will 
remain in session until all of the legislation is adopted. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Speaking for the NCP, legal expert Abdel Rahman El Khalifa 
argued the need to involve other players besides the two CPA parties 
in discussions of legislation in order to avoid "bilateral" 
agreements.  Specifically, while the SPLM draft of the 
southern-referendum law might be acceptable to the NCP, an issue of 
such national importance requires a general consensus by all 
political groups.  El Khalifa also argued that that the law needs to 
address specifically what will be the options presented on the 
ballot, to ensure that voters clearly understand what (i.e., 
continued national unity or southern independence) they are 
choosing.  The NCP also wants the law to address the manner in which 
whatever choice the voters make will be implemented.  The NCP 
expressed skepticism on the need for any laws on the Abyei 
referendum or popular consultations in Nuba and Blue Nile. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The SPLM expressed its view that additional laws are 
required to organize the Abyei referendum and the popular 
consultations, and indicated that it agreed in principle on the need 
for the southern referendum law to state precisely what options 
would be offered the voters.  However, the SPLM argued that 
discussion how a decision on unity or independence would be 
implemented should wait until after the referendum. 
 
¶6. (SBU) International partners all emphasized the importance of the 
pending legislation, especially the media, security and referendum 
laws, in implementing the CPA and urged their adoption as soon as 
possible.  Chairman Plumbly concluded the discussion by noting that 
both parties are clearly engaged on the issues and that the 
meeting's discussion had helped move things forward. 
 
Census Results to be Released in February 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶7.  (U) The NCP reported that the census results from north and 
south have been merged and are being checked.  When this is complete 
the technical committee will meet, then the National Council on the 
Census will convene to submit the final results to the Presidency 
for public release by the end of February. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Italian Ambassador Catoni (Power Sharing Working Group 
Coordinator) stated that, while not perfect, the census was the best 
 
KHARTOUM 00000182  002 OF 003 
 
 
that could be done under the circumstances and noted that its 
results will provide important data for other CPA issues, including 
power sharing and civil service representation.  Dutch Ambassador 
Braakhuis (Three Areas WG Coordinator) noted the extreme sensitivity 
of the census results in Southern Kordofan's Nuba Mountains, which 
will need to be addressed specifically.  African Union Ambassador 
Kane said he was glad to hear that release of the results is on 
track and stated that it is important that the parties commit 
themselves to accept the results.  He asked the NCP and SPLM if they 
were prepared to do so. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Speaking for the SPLM, Kosti Manibe described the 
technical aspects of the census as very professionally done, but 
said the GOSS has the same reservations as in May, when it had 
sought a delay in census enumeration.  He noted a number of concerns 
the SPLM has about census coverage and said that many people in the 
south report they were not counted.  Manibe wondered whether there 
are procedures that can adjust for this. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) NCP representative Idriss Abdelgadir responded that this 
was Sudan's first census carried out in peacetime, and with the full 
cooperation of the GoSS and the participation of the UN.  He noted 
that no census achieves 100 percent coverage and that adjustments 
already are included in the process to compensate for this. 
Abdelgadir agreed that political adjustments may be necessary after 
the results are released, but urged that these should be kept 
separate from the technical process now underway.  He noted that the 
CPA calls for power sharing quotas to be reviewed based on census 
results, but said that whether and how to do so is a political 
decision that the parties can approach later. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Chairman Plumbly summed up by saying that while there are 
problems with the census, it is a significant technical achievement. 
 There will be a need for discussion and consultation, particularly 
on the release of results and on power sharing.  He concluded by 
saying that it will be important to avoid contentious discussions. 
 
Abyei 
- - - 
¶13.  (SBU) The Chairman said that, due to the inability of the UN 
Head of Office in Abyei to attend, it would be impossible to have 
the planned briefing on the security situation there; however, he 
described it as "fragile."  He added that the core issue is the lack 
of funding for the Interim Administration's (AIA) budget.  Dutch 
Ambassador Braakhuis noted that the Three Areas WG had visited the 
area in January and observed that the lack of revenues have left a 
"vacuum" in Abyei.  The AIA has been unable to hold a planned Ngok 
Dinka-Misseriya reconciliation conference and, as a result, the 
annual migration is at a standstill and the Misseriya are rapidly 
running out of fodder for their cattle.  He said that the 
international community has done little to assist the Misseriya, 
adding that the situation in Southern Kordofan is almost as dire as 
that north of Abyei.  The European Commission concurred that 
financing the AIA is crucial and wondered whether donors should step 
in.  He also criticized the UN and implementing NGOs there as too 
cautious. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) The NCP expressed the view that this issue would be 
better discussed at the Working group level and sought to place 
responsibility for the delays on actions that the AIA needed to 
take.  He reported that seed money would be released to the AIA that 
day.  He said that the Presidency would consult with the Ngok Dinka 
and Misseriya on how they will receive the two percent of revenues 
due to each, but that this must be organized by the AIA.  He added 
that the Presidency had instructed the Unity Fund to give priority 
to funding the AIA's headquarters. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Chairman Plumbly and the U.S. described their efforts to 
arrange a Wealth Sharing WG meeting in January to discuss the issue. 
 The U.S. noted that the NCP had proposed such a meeting and that 
the Director of the Unity Fund had made himself available to brief 
the WG.  However, the NCP so far had been unable to attend on any of 
the proposed dates. 
 
Foreign Exchange Dispute Festers 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶16.  (SBU) Chairman Plumbly noted that the GNU-GoSS dispute on 
foreign exchange reserves continues to fester (reftel) and could 
turn into a political crisis if not resolved.  The U.S. agreed, 
noting the danger that the dispute could escalate and become the 
subject of mutual recrimination at a time when Sudan faces multiple 
other challenges.  He urged the two sides to resolve the matter as 
quickly as possible.  The NCP stated that the issue needs to be 
addressed between the Central Bank of Sudan and the bank of Southern 
Sudan. 
 
 
KHARTOUM 00000182  003 OF 003 
 
 
Working Group Updates 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
¶17.  (U) Italian Ambassador Catoni reported that the Power Sharing 
WG plans a February meeting focused on border demarcation and 
elections issued.  The U.S. stated that it would continue to try to 
arrange a meeting of the Wealth Sharing WG on the Abyei revenues 
issue during February.  The NCP proposed that the Wealth Sharing WG 
schedule a discussion of the impact of the global financial crisis 
on Sudan's economy. 
 
Other Business 
- - - - - - - - 
¶18.  (U) Chairman Plumbly stated that the AEC had prepared its 
annual report to the GNU and GoSS on its 2008 activities and would 
circulate the draft for clearance by February 14. 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
¶19.  (SBU) The 40th Plenary highlighted the many pitfalls lurking in 
the busy 2009 agenda.  The SPLM and NCP remain at loggerheads over 
key legislation required both for the national election and the 2011 
referendum, the SPLM is unlikely to accept the census results, and 
both Abyei and the foreign exchange dispute continue to simmer 
beneath the surface as unresolved issues that could blow into full 
blown crises if the overall relationship between the CPA partners 
deteriorates. 
 
FERNANDEZ