VZCZCXRO4014
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0163 0361522
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 051522Z FEB 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2915
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000163 
 
DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/C 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: DARFUR: JEM HEADS NORTH 
 
REF: A) KHARTOUM 152 
B) KHARTOUM 140 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  JEM has fled Muhajarriya and appears to be 
heading north, according to UNAMID and GOS sources.   UNDSS contacts 
told poloff that they now have unconfirmed reports of fighting 
between JEM and the GOS near Shangil Tobaya.  Although the UNAMID 
Team Site did report receiving indirect fire on February 4, 
Muhajarriya has remained relatively calm since the evening of 
February 4, with no reports of aerial bombardment.  END SUMMARY. 
 
JEM MOVES NORTH 
- - - - - - - - - 
¶2.  (SBU)  UNAMID situational reports, UNDSS contacts, and the 
Sudanese Press all stated on February 5 that JEM had left 
Muhajarriya and was moving north.  Both the Governor of South Darfur 
and the local SAF commander were reported to have visited 
Muhajarriya. Sudanese Press reported that the Sudanese Armed Forces 
were "chasing the remaining rebels into the bushes" and added that 
JEM has fled into the direction of Wada'ah, North Darfur. UNAMID 
sources stated that the morning of February 5, JEM was seen around 
the area east of Jebel Marra on the border between North and South 
Darfur.  UNDSS also told poloff at 15:00 local time that they had 
just received unconfirmed reports of fighting between JEM and the 
GOS in Shangil Tobaya.  Other UNAMID sources stated that the 
fighting may have been between a faction of SLA/Unity and JEM, 
although Abdallah Yehia earlier told poloff on February 5 that 
SLM/Unity's areas of control were stabl and calm.  (Note:  As of 
16:30 on February 5, the Zain/mobitel cell phone network in El 
Fasher was not functioning and has made communication with UNAMID 
headquarters and other contacts in North Darfur difficult. The 
Sudanese Government has turned off cellular networks in the past to 
prevent communication between the rebel movements.  End Note.) 
 
MUHAJARRIYA UPDATE 
- - - - - - - - - - 
¶3.  (SBU)  Government of Sudan (GoS) forces maintain their presence 
in Muhajarriya, having gained control of the village on February 5. 
Sudanese Press highlighted that "only one" SAF soldier was killed 
and nine others were injured while, "the losses of our JEM enemies 
are still being counted."  Press reports emphasize that JEM left 
behind "ravaged military assets" and a deteriorated humanitarian 
situation.  SLM leader Minnawi told CDA Fernandez on February 4 that 
JEM had looted many vehicles belonging to his movement in 
Muhajarriya. In other developments, visiting emboffs to South Darfur 
reported that they directly saw a delegation of South Darfur State 
officials (including the Governor and Minister of Finance) board a 
helicopter traveling from Nyala to Muhajarriya. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  UNAMID reporting also stated that on February 4 at 
approximately 13:00 UNAMID's Team site received indirect fire coming 
from Muhajarriya's relocated market.  As the Nigerian troops were in 
a defensive position, they could not determine the source or 
identity of the attackers.  According to UNDSS located in Nyala, 
many of the IDPs seeking refuge around the TS's perimeter fled 
during the firefight and have not returned as of February 5.  UNDSS 
and UNAMID reporting both stated that apart from this incident, the 
situation was relatively calm in Muhajarriya the evening of February 
4 and morning of February 5.  Additionally, since the evening of 
February 4, no air strikes have been reported in the vicinity of 
Muhajarriya. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
¶5.  (SBU)  It appears as though JEM is on the move to the North, and 
likely fleeing to the northwest border with Chad.  SAF appears to 
have stopped bombing the area around Muhajarriya and as a result 
there is relative calm in the village.  This should allow UNAMID and 
UN/OCHA to access Muhajarriya in the coming days to ensure that IDP 
needs are met, and to assess the degree of destruction caused by JEM 
and SAF forces.  JEM's misadventure into South Darfur appears to 
have weakened it both militarily and politically, and it remains to 
be seen whether other rebel groups such as SLA/U, SLA/AW, and SLM/MM 
will allow JEM forces to pass through their areas of control 
unimpeded, or if they will be attacked due to a possible alliance of 
convenience against JEM, as claimed by Minnawi and others. So far, 
the clearest winner of this particular round is the Khartoum regime. 
 Post will continue to closely monitor the situation and report 
septel. 
 
FERNANDEZ