VZCZCXRO7677
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #0185/01 0510907
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 200907Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1152
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 000185 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM UG
SUBJECT: UGANDAN CABINET RESHUFFLE SETTING STAGE FOR 2011 
 
REF: A. 08 KAMPALA 1484 B. 08 KAMPALA 1170 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni told audiences 
in the opposition stronghold of West Nile that he would not reward 
areas that voted against him as he announced his new cabinet on 
February 16.  There were few significant changes, with old timers 
and south-westerners dominating the cabinet.  Museveni's apparent 
criteria were:  rewarding loyalists, removing National Resistance 
Movement (NRM) members without a political base, and penalizing 
those who opposed Security Minister Amama Mbabazi during the 
National Social Security Fund (NSSF) corruption scandal.  Finance 
Minister Ezra Suruma was demoted to Special Advisor for Finance at 
the Presidency.  The appointment of First Lady Janet Museveni as the 
Minister of State for Karamoja Affairs has raised many eyebrows. 
The President's younger brother, Salim Saleh, was dropped from 
Microfinance for health reasons.  The most important vacant post, 
Internal Affairs, was filled with aged and ineffective Kivunda 
Kivejinja, a sign that Museveni does not want a powerful, 
independent minister in a post that controls the security apparatus 
for the upcoming elections.  Pundits describe the cabinet reshuffle 
as putting in place ministers with "no conscience" who will be 
needed to fight a long, hard, and dirty campaign to win in 2011. 
Unfortunately, the new cabinet comes at the expense of improved 
government efficiency and effectiveness.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------- 
New Cabinet Announced 
--------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On February 16, President Museveni announced a new cabinet 
after a year of speculation.  The most prominent new face is that of 
First Lady Janet Kataha Museveni, appointed as Minister of State for 
Karamoja.  The ministerial post gives Janet Museveni access to more 
resources and more perks, but also may have been made to put her in 
charge of an intractable problem, thereby weakening her growing 
popularity.  (Note: The First Couple's frosty relations are no 
secret in Kampala.  End Note.)  Other new faces in the new cabinet 
include former National Resistance Movement (NRM) Chief Whip, 
Labwoni Matsiko Kabakumba as Minister of State for Information and 
National Guidance, Uganda People's Defense Force (UPDF) Major 
General Jeje Odongo as Minister of State for Defense, and Aggrey 
Awori, one of Museveni's opponents who recently defected to the 
ruling party.  Awori was appointed Minister of Communications and 
ICT despite having no experience in the field. 
 
¶3.  (U) The cabinet retained 60 old faces, including Vice President 
Gilbert Bukenya; Prime Minister Apolo Nsibambi and First Deputy 
Prime Minister, Minister for East African Affairs, Eriya Kategaya. 
Throughout 2008, it was rumored that Nsibambi, a prostate cancer 
survivor, would retire.  However, with the re-introduction of the 
Land Bill Amendments to Parliament, the President reportedly wanted 
Nsibambi, an ethnic Muganda, to remain in place to help negotiate 
with the Buganda Kingdom, which opposes the amendments.  Other 
ruling party stalwarts remain, including Mbabazi, Minister of 
Foreign Affairs Sam Kutesa, and Minister of Defense Crispus 
Kiyonga. 
 
------------- 
Loyalty First 
------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Museveni "put loyalty first" when naming the new cabinet, 
according to Presidency officials.  The real winners in the 
reshuffle were supporters of NRM General Secretary Amama Mbabazi, 
particularly his sister-in-law Hope Mwesigye, who campaigned 
tirelessly on his behalf during the NSSF saga.  A die-hard party 
mobilizer in recent by-election, Mwesigye was named Minister of 
Agriculture despite having no experience or background for the 
position.  Another beneficiary was former Minister for General 
Duties, Adolf Mwesige, the author of the Parliamentary minority 
report that spared Mbabazi and Suruma from impeachment.  During the 
investigation, Museveni came to believe that the attacks against 
Mbabazi and Suruma were aimed at undermining Museveni and the ruling 
party (ref A).  Museveni decided to take steps to preserve Mbabazi 
and other loyalists and intervened to end the corruption 
investigation in order to "save the party". 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Suruma, lost his post as Minister for Finance after the 
publicly embarrassing Temangalo land sale to the NSSF allegedly to 
save his and Mbabazi's bank.  Suruma tried to resign twice in 2008, 
but Museveni refused his resignation because it would make Mbabazi 
look guilty.  Suruma also provided the President with high economic 
growth statistics (9%) that later proved to be incorrect, according 
to an Mbabazi insider.  In addition, Museveni was frustrated that he 
had publicly painted a stronger picture of Uganda's economic 
situation based on data provided by the Ministry of Finance when 
there were increasingly negative economic indicators.  Suruma was 
made a Special Advisor on Finance and Economic Planning, a 
meaningless title for a position with no influence. 
 
¶6.  (U) Critics within the NRM or those who opposed Mbabazi, such as 
General Kahinda Otafiire, Minister of Local Government, were the 
 
KAMPALA 00000185  002 OF 003 
 
 
biggest losers.  Otafiire said he was "demoted" to Minister of Trade 
and Industry for opposing Mbabazi and accused Museveni of picking 
sides in the struggle between historical members of the party.  The 
outspoken minister also never failed to condemn corruption within 
the ruling party and opposed a sweetheart development deal for 
cronies of the President.  Otafiire also may have wielded too much 
power within Kampala, virtually running the Uganda Transport 
Association (UTODA), whose strikes have the capacity to shut down 
Kampala on a moment's notice. 
 
------------------------------- 
Technocrats Out, Loyal Faces In 
------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Some senior NRM personalities in the previous cabinet lost 
their ministerial posts, but were retained as presidential advisors 
and ambassadors.  These posts are considered demotions and have 
little or no role in policymaking.  Technically competent ministers 
in ministries of growing importance to the economy, ICT and Energy, 
were replaced with less capable personalities.  This is of concern 
because ICT, Energy, and Finance ministries are sources of growing 
revenue and patronage opportunities.  Former Minister for 
Communications and ICT Ham Mulira lost his ministerial portfolio 
largely because he did not have an electoral constituency.  Mulira 
single-handedly built a new ministry from the ground up and worked 
tirelessly to improve Uganda's communications infrastructure.  He 
was made a Senior Advisor on ICT. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Minister of Energy Daudi Migereko was moved to be the 
NRM's Chief Whip in Parliament.  He is popular among other 
parliamentarians, but also cannot deliver an electoral constituency. 
 Migereko rescued the country from the serious power shortages 
created by the policies of his predecessor, Syda Bbumba.  However, 
clashes between Migereko and his powerful and corrupt Permanent 
Secretary may have done him in.  Migereko opposed several project 
tenders involving Janet Museveni and Sam Kutesa's firm, Aggrekko. 
We do not expect the new Energy Minister, Hillary Onek, to be as 
straight forward as Migereko.  Onek was selected because he is a 
northerner and the new oil finds in Amuru District in northern 
Uganda are already generating conflict over land ownership in the 
area.  Onek's loyalty will be needed by the regime and its cronies 
as oil exploration promises to bring increased opportunities for 
corrupt contracts. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Bbumba was moved from the Ministry of Energy to Gender, 
Labor, and Social Development in 2006, where she was less dangerous, 
but just as ineffective.  The Ministry languished during her tenure, 
largely because she allowed its budget to be plundered to pay for 
the Commonwealth Heads of State Government meeting in 2007 and other 
regime needs.  Bbumba, who has no apparent substantive economic 
experience but is the wife of a strong party supporter, was moved to 
Finance.  Minister of Trade Janat Mukwaya's lackluster performance 
landed her in the Prime Minister's Office as Minister of General 
Duties.  Mukwaya fought alongside Museveni during the bush war and 
will not likely be dropped from any cabinet, regardless of her 
performance. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) A notable change is the movement of Museveni's younger 
brother, Salim Saleh, from Microfinance.  He was appointed as a 
Senior Advisor on Defense.  Saleh is seriously ill, requiring taxing 
monthly treatments that prevent him from promoting "Prosperity For 
All," the government's microfinance program to extend patronage to 
curry favor with voters.  The program was failing largely because 
Saleh could not travel and do grassroots mobilizing.   Former 
Minister of State for Defense Ruth Nankabirwa will be in charge of 
Microfinance with former Vice President, Specioza Kazibwe, an ethnic 
Musoga, serving as a senior advisor.  The Musoga generally vote NRM 
and the regime is intent on firming up its support in the east. 
Former Minister of State for Lands Kasirivu Atwooki was demoted to a 
Special Advisor on Land Matters.  He reportedly did not do enough 
public sensitization to build support for the Land Bill amendments. 
Opposition to the bill continues to be high, making it difficult for 
Museveni to follow through on previous and future campaign promises 
of land for investors and campaign contributors. 
 
----------------------- 
Vacant Positions Filled 
----------------------- 
 
¶11.  (U) President Museveni appointed Kirunda Kivejinja to the post 
of Minister for Internal Affairs to replace Ruhakana Rugunda, who 
was appointed Uganda's Representative to the United Nations in 
December.  Internal Affairs is a critical post in the run-up to the 
2011 elections because it oversees the police, and serves as the 
Chair of the National Security Committee.  Kivejinja lost his 
parliamentary seat after a court found significant electoral 
irregularities had occurred.  He then lost the by-election.  In his 
previous position as Minister of Information, he called together the 
independent media houses in late 2007 and warned them not to print 
stories critical of the First Family, corruption, or national 
security. 
 
 
KAMPALA 00000185  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶12.  (U)  Alarmingly, Rugunda's departure means there is no 
historical member of the NRM with enough independence and public 
credibility to take a principled stand on issues of rule of law. 
Rugunda, to his credit, stood up to some of the hardliners such as 
Security Czar David Tinyefuza, on arbitrary arrests and detentions 
of parliamentarians and opposition leaders.  Kivejinja, who once 
resigned before being censored by Parliament, does not have the 
backbone, the constituency, or the allies in the security forces to 
do so.  Kivejinja is unlikely to stand up to Museveni, who this 
weekend told West Nile residents that "if you vote for Besigye, you 
will have voted for a civil war.  It is not a joking matter but a 
serious thing that you vote for NRM."  Museveni also told audiences 
that if they voted for the opposition, they would receive no 
development assistance from the government. 
 
¶13.  (U) Former Minister of State for Industry Ephraim Kamuntu was 
appointed Minister of State for Planning to replace Omwony Ojok who 
passed away in November 2007.  A new face, Henry Bagiire, was 
appointed Minister of State for Agriculture to replace highly 
popular, Kibirige Sebunya, who died in October 2008. Bagiire said 
his appointment was due to his agricultural work and his loyalty to 
the party. 
 
------------------------ 
The Race for 2011 is On 
------------------------ 
 
¶14.  (SBU) For most Ugandans, the cabinet reshuffle is business as 
usual:  the same bush war notables and westerners dominating the 
government and key sources of patronage.  The new cabinet has eleven 
full ministers and sixteen junior ministers from the west, the 
regime's home base, despite being a minority of the population. 
These moves were made to stop the fracturing of NRM support in the 
west as well.  The northern region, with a majority of the 
population but a bastion of political opposition, has only two full 
ministers and seven junior ministers.  Eastern Uganda, where the NRM 
is trying to curry favor, bagged six ministerial and fourteen junior 
posts and the politically important Central Region received five 
ministerial posts and eight junior ministers. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶15.  (SBU) The cabinet reshuffle follows other moves Museveni has 
made to strengthen his position for 2011. (ref B).  Museveni remains 
concerned about his diminishing margins of victory over the past 
three elections, which could force him into an electoral run-off. 
To avoid this, he needs to shore up support within the NRM in order 
to change the Constitution to remove the run-off provision.  Some of 
these moves include seeking guidance on the management of one-party 
states in China and North Korea, creation of a think-tank to 
re-educate and re-orient party members, military boot camp training 
for parliamentarians and local government leaders, and reshuffling 
parliamentary committee assignments to punish independent NRM 
voices.  Moreover, the NRM has pulled out all the stops in 
by-elections to ensure its candidates won, sending a strong signal 
to those who want elected office about loyalty.  We are concerned 
about the placement of less competent managers in charge of 
ministries that could become sources of funds for campaigning or 
patronage (ICT, Energy, Lands, and Finance).  The reshuffle does 
little to reach out to disaffected Ugandans, opposition strongholds 
in northern Uganda, or improve government effectiveness.  Museveni 
has sent a clear message to Ugandans that loyalty to him will be 
rewarded in government representation and development aid.  He 
appears prepared to take any measures necessary to win the next 
elections in 2011. 
BROWNING