VZCZCXRO1889
PP RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #0254/01 0341549
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 031549Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7125
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000254 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
KABUL FOR COS USFOR-A 
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR MCGRAW 
CG CJTF-101, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: DECIDEDLY MIXED REACTION FROM POLITICIANS TO 
AUGUST ELECTION 
 
REF: A. KABUL 217 
     ¶B. KABUL 181 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Members of Parliament, political leaders, 
and other political observers had a mixed reaction to the 
Independent Election Commission's (IEC) announcement of 
August 20 for presidential and provincial council elections 
(ref A).  IEC arguments that an earlier date would not allow 
sufficient time to stabilize the security situation and 
mobilize efforts for an open and transparent election appear 
to have swayed many earlier opponents.  Lower House Speaker 
Yunus Qanooni and most of his United Front allies have 
decided not to contest the IEC's authority to set a later 
date, despite earlier threats to dispute the legitimacy of 
any election held after May.  Some MPs will continue to 
protest the IEC's decision, but lack the political clout to 
mount a serious challenge. 
 
¶2. (SBU) With the resolution of the date debate, Qanooni and 
other Karzai opponents will now focus efforts on challenging 
the legality of Karzai remaining in office after May 22, the 
day on which the Constitution suggests the presidential term 
ends.  Qanooni is pushing for Karzai to step aside in favor 
of a transitional government.  If his effort gains momentum 
it could pose a threat to continuity of government and 
introduce political ambiguity in the lead up to elections and 
at the height of the fighting season.  We will report on this 
issue and potential resolutions septel. 
 
Emerging Political Consensus in Support of IEC Announcement 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Members of Parliament, especially in the Lower House 
where Karzai is extremely unpopular, had opposed the IEC's 
efforts to set an election date after the spring timeframe 
outlined in the Constitution.  The IEC's security-based 
arguments convinced many MPs to accept a later election date. 
 Other opposition members, led by Qanooni, decided it was no 
longer politically advantageous to fan the debate.  Lower 
House Deputy Speaker Mirwais Yaseni (Nangarhar, Pashtun) 
expressed reservations that the Constitution was again being 
bent to accommodate political realities, but admitted there 
was no better alternative.  Influential MPs Haji Mohammed 
Mohaqqeq (Kabul, Hazara) and Abdul Rassoul Sayyaf (Kabul, 
Pashtun) supported the IEC's decision. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Poloffs spoke with a group of women MPs soon after 
the IEC's January 29 announcement on the August election 
date.  All eight -- representing a regional and ethnic 
cross-section of Afghanistan -- supported the date.  Rahima 
Jamay (Herat, Tajik) said August would let more women 
register to vote.  Nasima Niazi (Helmand, Pashtun) hoped 
security in her province would improve by the fall.  A spring 
election would have seen many Helmand residents unable or 
unwilling to go to the polls amid threats from the Taliban. 
In a separate conversation, MP Haji Ali Mohammad (Logar, 
Pashtun) said August gives security forces an opportunity to 
stabilize restive districts in his province before the 
election. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Abdul Jabbar Naeemi, a former governor of Wardak 
province, agreed the delay was the only "practical" solution. 
 More time was needed for logistics planning and to wrap up 
voter registration efforts.  Although he supported Karzai's 
re-election, Naeemi pointed out the extra months would give 
opposition candidates more time to campaign and reduce the 
chances they would cry foul over an abbreviated campaign 
season. 
 
Civil Society Groups React Favorably 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission 
(AIHRC) had taken an official position that the election 
should take place in March or April.  However, AIHRC 
Commissioner Nader Naderi said AIHRC recognized security 
conditions precluded holding a fair and free election in the 
constitutionally mandated timeframe. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Laila Langari of the Afghan Women's Network welcomed 
the IEC announcement, saying current security conditions in 
the south would prevent most women from voting.  An August 
election would allow more time to secure voting places and 
give civil society groups greater opportunity to raise public 
 
KABUL 00000254  002 OF 002 
 
 
awareness.  She predicted, however, that fewer people would 
participate in this election than in the 2004 presidential 
election because they were less hopeful and security 
conditions were worse. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Foundation for Culture and Civil Society Director 
Timor Hakimyar echoed many of Langari's points, saying the 
additional time would give government and Coalition Forces 
more time to improve security, expanding Afghan 
participation.  He suggested civil society groups could 
increase public awareness through advertising and educational 
workshops. 
 
Some Holdouts Remain 
-------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Several Lower House MPs spoke out against the IEC's 
decision in Parliament and to the media.  MP Fazal Karim 
Aimaq (Kunduz, Tajik) said the IEC had violated the 
Constitution by moving the date past the spring.  MPs Kabir 
Ranjbar (Kabul, Pashtun), Shukria Barakzai (Kabul, Pashtun), 
and Fawzia Koofi (Badakhshan, Tajik) agreed and said they 
would seek legal means to block the IEC's decision.  Those 
criticizing the new election date, however, did so as 
individuals and did not present a unified plan to challenge 
the IEC.  Without the backing of Qanooni or other United 
Front leaders, these MPs will likely be unable to organize an 
effective opposition or push their complaints through a 
judicial system that has been reluctant to weigh in on 
constitutional matters. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Most independent daily newspapers reported 
negatively on the IEC decision.  Arman-e-Milli (circulation: 
4,600) said the IEC was a tool of Karzai's.  The normally 
pro-government Erada Daily (circulation: 3,000) said the 
government's failure to provide security over the last seven 
years did not bode well for efforts to improve security over 
the next few months.  Nevertheless, like most MPs who oppose 
the August date, the newspapers provided no credible 
alternative nor disputed the IEC's point that a spring 
election would lead to lower turnout. 
WOOD