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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISTANBUL 000081 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OSCE PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: KOCAELI ELECTIONS SHAPING UP AS TWO PARTY RACE 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 118 
     ¶B. ANKARA 125 
 
¶1.   Summary.  A hard-fought and close race for the Mayorship 
of Kocaeli Greater Municipality, the largest city in Kocaeli 
Province, is shaping up between the ruling Justice and 
Development Party (AKP) and main opposition Republican 
People's Party (CHP).  In the last municipal elections, 
Ibrahim Karaosmanoglu, the current AKP mayor of this key 
industrial city, defeated his CHP opponent by a margin of 
more than two to one.  CHP is determined to reverse that 
result in the March election, and has recruited as its 
candidate Sefa Sirmen, who served as Kocaeli's mayor for the 
three terms preceding Karaosmanoglu.  With recession settling 
in and corruption allegations dogging AKP, the race is 
expected to be tight.  End summary. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
A Grinding Recession Ahead for Kocaeli 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  Kocaeli Province, located directly east of Istanbul, is 
home to approximately 1,300,000 people, and is the richest 
province in Turkey.  Kocaeli's wealth comes primarily from 
manufacturing, which is responsible for some 73 percent of 
its GDP.  (Services make up most of the remainder.) 
According to Kocaeli Governor GQkhan SQzer, in 2007 annual 
exports (mostly to Europe) from Kocaeli equaled some 13 
billion USD, and imports to Kocaeli equaled 24 billion. 
Chief among the sectors located in the province is the 
automotive industry (Ref. A), which accounts for 20 percent 
of Turkey's total exports.  Ford, Hyundai, Honda and Isuzu, 
as well as a number of auto parts and tire manufacturers, 
have plants in the city; currently, some 119 local companies 
have foreign investors.  (On the wall of the simple diner 
where we had lunch during a recent visit hung four clocks, 
showing the current time in Kocaeli, London, New York and 
Tokyo.) 
 
¶3.  The AKP leadership has proclaimed that Turkey will be 
able to weather the global economic crisis better than most 
countries, because it is relatively insulated from the global 
economy.  This is not true for Kocaeli, whose economy is 
vitally dependent upon exports.  According to Governor SQzer, 
since the crisis began in June, there has been a 25-30 
percent decrease in industrial output and a concomitant 
increase in unemployment.  Thus, while six months ago an easy 
AKP win was the conventional wisdom, the mayorship must now 
be considered in play. 
 
--------------------------- 
No Worries for AKP's Nominee 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4.  Kocaeli Mayor Ibrahim Karaosmanoglu, although 
acknowledging the problems the local economy faces, was 
resolutely upbeat about winning reelection.  According to 
Karaosmanoglu, Turkey is one of the countries in Europe least 
affected by the crisis.  Nevertheless, while claiming most 
sectors have not been affected as much as the auto industry, 
he acknowledged businesses are concerned, and people are 
avoiding risks and are cautious in their investments. 
Karaosmanoglu claimed there has not been much decrease in the 
retail sector, except for big-ticket items that need credit. 
 
¶5.  When asked about CHP's claim that it can contest the 
Kocaeli mayoral election, Karaosmanoglu said it reminds him 
of the Turkish saying, "Hope is the bread of the poor."  He 
thinks it would be good if the opposition was stronger, as 
this would make AKP more active and alert.  AKP does polling 
in Kocaeli every six months, and so far people seem happy 
with their local government, with support hovering around 
60-70 percent.  The economy may have a "small effect," he 
said, but in local elections voters distinguish between the 
central and local governments.  He predicted that AKP will do 
better in local elections throughout the country than it did 
in 2007 -- garnering as much as 50 percent of the overall 
vote.  Karaosmanoglu said he will rely upon AKP's usual 
get-out-the-vote strategy, claiming AKP grass roots workers 
will contact 100 percent of eligible voters. 
 
---------------------------- 
CHP Nominee Plans a Comeback 
---------------------------- 
 
 
ISTANBUL 00000081  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶6.  The CHP candidate is provincial Party Chair and former 
three-time mayor Sefa Sirmen.  Sirmen did not seek 
re-election in 2004, having won a seat in Parliament in 2002. 
 However, he surrendered that seat in 2007 to run again for 
mayor, explaining that being an opposition party member in 
Parliament "is not much fun."  Sirmen intends to run by 
comparing his record of achievements against those made by 
AKP.  He says that AKP made major mistakes in planning and 
prioritizing projects, as a result of which much money has 
been misspent.  He claims that while AKP has spent 5 billion 
dollars in five years without completing any significant 
projects, CHP spent but one billion dollars over 15 years and 
accomplished much. 
 
¶7.  According to Sirmen, Kocaeli's biggest need is for a mass 
transit system.  He does not, however, plan to run an 
issues-based campaign, claiming that in local mayoral 
elections people focus on a candidate's leadership qualities 
and track record, rather than on the party's platform (Ref 
B).  Sirmen plans to seek contributions from the public (a 
tactic that is almost unknown in Turkey) and to adopt Obama's 
campaign slogan and fund-raising approach, to get "everyone" 
to contribute to his campaign -- "even just one lira" -- so 
that they can feel part of his campaign. 
 
¶8.  In his three prior campaigns, Sirmen received an average 
of 15 percent more support that did his party's municipal 
council candidate list, which he says shows he is more 
popular than his party.  Thus, Sirmen does not view his 
membership in CHP as a handicap; "I will win despite my 
party," he asserted.  (Comment: In the 2004 elections, in 
which Sirmen did not compete, the current mayor bested the 
AKP council candidates by 7 points, perhaps indicating that 
Sirmen's record is not unique.)  When asked why CHP was not 
more popular, Sirmen first pointed to a huge poster of party 
chair Deniz Baykal, then noted that it is "obvious that 
people don't see Baykal and (Nationalist Action Party (MHP) 
chair Devlet) Bahceli as real alternatives." 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Democratic Party Planning A (Lesser) Comeback 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  The Democratic Party's candidate for mayor is businessman 
Tugcu Tezer.  We met with him, DP's Kocaeli party president 
Ercument Sahin, and a number of DP party officials at its 
somewhat run-down party headquarters.  In recent years DP has 
not been a force in Kocaeli (nor nationally) because, 
according to Sahin, the party has "lost its way." 
Nevertheless, local party officials feel that better days are 
ahead.  They point to DP's long history of involvement in 
Turkish politics (the party was formed in 1946); the three 
successive national elections it won in the 1980s under the 
leadership of Suleyman Demirel; and claim that it is the 
"natural home" for center-right voters, both religious and 
secular.  They believe that many DP supporters who turned to 
AKP have been disappointed by AKP's performance, and expect 
(like most observers) that the local elections will be a 
referendum on AKP's nationwide performance -- which they 
claim has been "a big failure" for two years.  They 
acknowledge that CHP is the main op 
position party, but believe CHP has been ineffective and its 
leader Deniz Baykal unconvincing. 
 
¶10.  Tezer said that his platform will focus on "honesty, 
credibility and transparency," and that it will include 
planks for improving the local educational system, providing 
support for the disabled (of which there are many in Kocaeli, 
he said, because of its heavy industry), and developing a 
monorail system.  Yet, the DP officials recognize that they 
have no chance of winning the local mayorship.  (In the 2004 
elections DP received 15 votes.)  Rather, DP believes the 
local elections are a means to a greater end -- its return to 
the national political stage.  Its strategy is to do well 
enough in the local elections to force general elections. 
According to DP's (to us, wildly optimistic) calculations, 
AKP's support in the local elections will drop to about 25 
percent, compelling the party to call elections, in which DP 
hopes to get 10 percent of the vote, thus crossing the 
electoral threshold and earning a position as a coalition 
partner. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Felicity Party Keeping the Faith 
-------------------------------- 
 
ISTANBUL 00000081  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶11.  The Felicity Party ("Saadet" in Turkish) is the most 
openly religious of the major political parties in Turkey. 
It has the same Virtue Party roots as AKP, but, said local 
party officials, considers itself to be the true keeper of 
the faith, which AKP supposedly has abandoned in order to be 
"all things to all people."  The party officials claimed 
Saadet will be one of the strongest parties.  They claimed 
that in the last three elections, Saadet did better in 
Kocaeli than anywhere else in Turkey -- receiving almost 7 
percent of the vote in the province and over 10 percent of 
the vote in the greater municipality (over twice its national 
results in the 2004 election).  They attributed these results 
to good party organization which they, like AKP, learned from 
their Virtue Party antecedents. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12.  The results of local elections will in most cases hinge 
on the personalities and track records of the candidates.  In 
close cases, voters' views of AKP's national performance may 
be the tie-breaking factor.  In Kocaeli, where the AKP and 
CHP candidates are both successful politicians well-known to 
local voters, the results may well boil down to the 
electorate's perception of how well AKP has ruled the country 
these past five years.  An AKP win here despite the grinding 
recession would confirm the AKP philosophy that in politics 
organization is paramount. 
 
WIENER