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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000075 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: AKP GOES TO THE BENCH IN BURSA LOCAL ELECTIONS 
 
¶1.  Summary.  Hikmet Sahin, the current Mayor of the Greater 
Bursa Municipality, Turkey's fourth largest city, never hit 
it off, either with the people of Bursa or with the 
leadership of his party, Turkey's ruling Justice and 
Development Party (AKP).  Accordingly, AKP has decided not to 
renominate him for mayor in March's local elections, choosing 
instead the equally well-known and much more dynamic District 
Mayor Recep Altepe.  Relegated to running as the Democratic 
Party (DP) candidate, Sahin currently lags behind "undecided" 
in local polls.  Sena Kaleli, the nominee of the Republican 
People's Party (CHP), has no political experience and 
inadequate funding, and is notable primarily for being the 
only female candidate for municipal mayor in the entire 
country.  Better organized and funded, and with a long list 
of achievements from his term as district mayor, Altepe is 
heavily favored to secure the municipal mayorship.  End 
summary. 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
60,000 Jobs in Bursa Lost To The Economic Crisis 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶2.  Bursa Greater Municipality, capital of the Turkish 
province of the same name, is situated some 30 miles to the 
southeast of Istanbul, at the eastern end of the Sea of 
Marmara.  The city was founded by Philip of Macedon, became 
the first capital of the Ottoman Empire in 1326, and was for 
centuries the western terminus of the Silk Road.  With a 
population of 2.5 million, it is Turkey's fourth largest 
city.  Its economy revolves around automobile manufacturing 
and parts, textiles, and food.  Closely integrated into the 
world economy, Bursa has suffered significantly in the recent 
global crisis, with some 60,000 jobs lost since the crisis 
hit Turkey late last fall.  However, according to Provincial 
Governor Sahabettin Harput, the effects of these layoffs have 
been alleviated by long-term unemployment insurance and 
additional government benefits to businesses that permit them 
to offer employees part-time work.  In our meetings with 
MUSIAD and BUGIAD, two local affiliates of nationwide 
business organizations, their members uniformly expressed 
confidence in the ability of the city to rebound from the 
crisis, beginning as early as the second half of this year. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Current Mayor Seeks the Silver Lining 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  Hikmet Sahin is ending his first term as greater 
municipal mayor.  According to news reports, AKP decided not 
to renominate him because of bad blood between Sahin and the 
Labor Minister.  A senior business contact in Bursa told us 
he believes one reason the AKP has dumped Sahin is that he 
isn't sufficiently conservative.  Challenger Recep Altepe -- 
who has a covered wife and currently represents one of the 
most conservative districts of Bursa -- offered a different 
explanation: Sahin is not from the Bursa area and never 
ingratiated himself with the locals, did not approach his job 
as a "team player" (a very serious failing within the AKP), 
and did not accomplish much.  Indeed, during our meeting 
Sahin spoke little and vaguely of his own election plans, and 
seemed to have resigned himself to a loss, saying only that 
his campaign would help DP candidates for city council 
(currently controlled y AKP, with 55 percent of the seats). 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
AKP CandidateHas Good Reason to be Confident 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  Recep Altepe i the mayor of Osmangazi, the largest of 
the seve districts within Greater Bursa Municipality, and n 
our meeting he was the exact opposite of Sahin -- voluble, 
energetic and confident.  He claimed hat AKP's choice of him 
as its municipal mayor candidate was due more to current 
mayor Sahin's unpopularity than to his own popularity. 
According to Altepe, polls (commissioned by AKP) show 55 
percent of voters supporting AKP; 16-17 percent supporting 
CHP; 10-12 percent supporting the right-wing National Action 
Party (whose candidate refused to meet with us); 8-9 percent 
undecided; and 5-6 percent supporting Sahin.  These figures 
are in line with AKP's results in the 2004 local elections 
(48 percent) and 2007 general elections (51 percent).  Altepe 
says AKP's target is sixty percent of the vote. 
 
¶5.  Altepe recounted his many accomplishments -- 750 projects 
with a value of 250 million Turkish lira, including municipal 
buildings, health clinics, sports facilities and parks. 
 
ISTANBUL 00000075  002 OF 002 
 
 
Altepe noted with pride that in these efforts he had over 300 
"project partners" -- e.g., NGOs, architects and 
universities.  Altepe said that he intends to make Bursa an 
international conference center competitive with Istanbul, 
and noted that eight luxury hotels are under construction. 
To illustrate his points, throughout the meeting Altepe 
handed us brochures, booklets and hardcover books (one a 300 
page long history of one of Osmangazi's neighborhoods), all 
published by the district government. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
CHP Candidate Attacks the Glass Ceiling 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  CHP candidate Sena Kaleli is the principal owner and 
manager of Kamil Koc, the oldest bus company in Turkey and 
one of the 500 largest companies in Turkey.  She told us that 
while she had in the past been approached by AKP to run for 
office, she had demurred, feeling that she would only be 
"window dressing."  However, when approached last year by CHP 
she decided to act, spurred by its support of individual 
freedoms and women's rights.  (She claims -- somewhat 
surreally -- that a CHP government would "absolutely" be more 
pro-western than an AKP government.)  Although she is a 
champion of women's rights, she said that she was not chosen 
by CHP because she was a woman but because she is well-known. 
 She is the only woman candidate from any party running for 
greater municipal mayor, she said.  Yet, when CHP ran a poll 
asking if voters would vote for a woman, 80 percent said they 
would. 
 
¶7.  Kaleli's strategy will be to "reach out" and be more 
inclusive -- a strategy that AKP has from its inception 
wielded with much success, but one which only recently has 
the notoriously-insular CHP begun to adopt.  She also intends 
(like most opposition candidates to whom we have spoken) to 
hammer away at corruption within the AKP.  She acknowledges, 
however, a severe disparity in financial capabilities between 
CHP and AKP, and says that Altepe is so confident of victory 
that he didn't participate in a candidate's debate sponsored 
by a local television station.  Some measure of the struggle 
CHP will have in being heard is the huge Altepe campaign 
poster decorating the bus stop in front of CHP headquarters. 
Bursa is festooned in those posters -- illegally, says CHP, 
since the official campaign period does not begin until March 
¶9.  Legal or not, they well illustrate the financial 
advantages held by AKP. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Meeting With Saadet: Party Typically Lively 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶8.  Saadet party contacts told us that in past elections 
voters supported AKP because it promised a good economy and 
more religious freedom, both of which it has failed to 
deliver.  Since Saadet can provide what AKP only promises, 
voters will abandon AKP in favor of Saadet.  The party has, 
they claim, been reinvigorated by its new leadership 
(incoming president Prof. Dr. Numan Kurtulmus has a PhD from 
Cornell University) and party leaders expect it will do quite 
well in the local elections -- 13 percent overall in Bursa, 
and possibly even a district mayorship. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Comment:  AKP Bench Too Deep to Overcome 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  Given the current mayor's unpopularity and the economic 
crisis gripping the region, Bursa would seem to be a city in 
play.  Yet, AKP's bench is so deep that even its substitute 
candidate is substantially stronger than those offered up by 
the opposition parties.  This means that, in Bursa, AKP is 
essentially running against itself.  It expects to do better 
than the 51 percent it received in the 2007 elections, and if 
it does not at least come very close to that figure, will 
rightfully be considered to have suffered something of a 
loss.  However, despite a grinding recession, the lack of a 
viable alternative means that AKP is likely to prevail yet 
again. 
Wiener