VZCZCXRO4227
PP RUEHBC RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK
DE RUEHIHL #0015 0471632
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 161632Z FEB 09 ZFF4
FM REO HILLAH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1148
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
RUEHIHL/REO HILLAH 1221

UNCLAS HILLAH 000015 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS IZ
SUBJECT: BABIL PROVINCE  ELECTIONS: BALLOTS OVER BULLETS 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The Babil Provincial Council (PC) election 
was credible and perceived as legitimate by the majority of 
citizens in the province. There were some problems with isolated 
cases of observer misconduct and difficulties with registration 
and problems with getting to the polls but overall the election 
took place in an orderly fashion. Da'wa took first place with 12 
percent, ISCI placed second followed by the Ahrar Independent 
Trend. A Da'wa led coalition will most likely choose the next 
governor and Provincial Council (PC) Chair. Sunnis and Saddrists 
both participated in the election, opting for ballots over 
bullets.  The Sunnis did not vote as a bloc and do not yet have 
an identifiable representative on the PC but the Saddrists fared 
better and will have three to five seats on the PC. Voters have 
high expectations for the new PC, which will have significantly 
reduced budgetary resources. END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (SBU) The post election coalitions forming for the Babil 
Provincial Council (PC) are Da'wa, who garnered the most votes 
(12.5 percent), the Ahrar Independent Trend (Saddrists), in 
third place (6.5 percent). The other parties most likely to form 
an alliance with Da'wa are Dr. Ja'fari's National Reform Trend 
(4.4 percent) and the Iraqi Commission for Civil Society 
Organizations of Iskander Witwit, former Babil Governor (4.1 
percent).  It looks like they will command approximately 17 
seats on the council, a narrower majority than initially 
expected. The ISCI -led opposition includes the Independent 
Justice Group, an ISCI front group, PC Chairman's Al Ansar 
Independent Party (3.4 percent) and Ayad Allawi's slate the 
Iraqi National List (3.4 percent). This would give the putative 
opposition 13 seats. The Da'wa-led coalition will elect a 
Governor and PC Chair, but is not likely to form a cohesive 
bloc. Rather, personal agendas, loyalties and interests will 
prevail over party discipline. Da'wa leader Abu Ahmed Al Basri 
has said there is no chance for Da'wa and ISCI to renew their 
previous coalition. He is also a likely candidate for the 
Governorship, although he has said he does not want it. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The election results suggest some political 
reconciliation is happening in the Saddrist and Sunni 
communities due to their participation in the election process. 
Babil' population is approximately 25 percent Sunni and is 
located primarily in the Northwest corner of the province in the 
areas of Musayib and Mahawheel Districts. No self-identified 
Sunni party won enough votes to win a seat on the PC which 
suggests the Sunnis did not vote as a single block. A slate that 
was popular in the Sunni communities is Ayad Allawi's slate, the 
Iraqi National list, which will most likely have two seats on 
the council. Allawi's intent to form a coalition with ISCI/Badr 
may trouble those in the Sunni Community who gave Allawi's party 
their support. Sheikh Sabah Haji from Jurf Al Sakr has already 
expressed concern that there will be no Sunni representation on 
the new council though the possibility exists for one of the 
political slates to give up a seat and allow a Sunni to be 
seated. 
 
¶4. (SBU) the Saddrists Independent Trend's participation in the 
election process netted from three to five seats on the PC 
depending on which source you use. The Saddrists are pleased 
with their performance, strengthening the moderates' hand. 
 
¶5. (U) The new PC will face high expectations, especially with 
regard to improved essential services. Unfortunately the new PC 
will have reduced budgetary resources due to the reduced oil 
revenues. The new council may not be able to deliver but they 
will have four years to demonstrate some progress. 
 
¶6. (U) The election was viewed as credible by most voters 
although there was a litany of small grievances and complaints. 
The local IHEC director, Hussein Abd Al Khulaif, sent 54 formal 
complaints (mostly concerning party observer's behavior) about 
the election to the central IHEC office in Baghdad for 
adjudication. Da'wa along with eight other parties requested a 
vote recount, believing ISCI was credited with too many votes. 
The Union of Engineers slate suggested that the tally sheets had 
been altered in Baghdad and that tally sheets were improperly 
removed from voting centers and sent to the province's IHEC 
office in Al Hillah.  The most serious problem, however, was the 
confusion at voting centers about voters not registered due to 
problems with their ration cards and the registration system. 
In addition, the Election Day vehicle ban kept numbers of people 
that morning from rural areas from reaching their voting centers. 
HEATH