VZCZCXRO4638
RR RUEHDT RUEHPB
DE RUEHGZ #0076 0370932
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 060932Z FEB 09
FM AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0177
INFO RUEHGZ/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE 0089
RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC 0086
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC 0086
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC 0007
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC//USDP/ISA/AP// 0004
RHMFISS/CJCS WASHINGTON DC//J2/J3/J5// 0002
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI//J00/J2/J3/J5// 0012
RHEFAFM/DIRNCMI FT DETRICK MD

UNCLAS GUANGZHOU 000076 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/CM, OES/IHA, MED, CA/OCS/ACS/EAP 
STATE PASS TO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR ANE AND GH 
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FOR OSD/ISA/AP 
HHS PASS TO OGHA, NIH/FIC, CDC/COGH AND FLU DIV TMOUNTS AND NCOX 
USDA PASS TO APHIS, FAS (OSTA AND OCRA), FSIS 
BANGKOK FOR RMO, CDC, USAID 
BEIJING FOR HHS HEALTH ATTACHE AND RMO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: TBIO KFLU CASC SOCI PREL HK CH
SUBJECT: Guangxi AI Update: Still No Link To Bird Outbreak - 
Possibility of Asymptomatic Strain 
 
REF: Guangzhou 0055 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  Authorities have been unable to link the H5N1-death 
of a Guangxi teen, the 5th fatality of 2009, with an outbreak among 
bird populations.  Some south China health experts suspect that 
recent human AI cases may be associated with birds that carry and 
transmit the virus but do not themselves exhibit symptoms.  Others 
believe that the deaths are likely linked to sick or dead poultry 
that have already been consumed or discarded.   One expert 
emphasized that the recently reported human AI cases remain 
sporadic, showing no signs of a pandemic outbreak.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Pointing to the lack of detected H5N1 avian influenza (AI) 
outbreaks among poultry and water fowl, HE Jianfeng, Deputy Director 
of the Epidemic Disease Prevention Institute of Guangdong CDC, said 
there is a possibility that China's recent human AI cases may be 
caused by exposure to an asymptomatic strain (i.e. birds that carry 
and transmit the virus but do not themselves exhibit symptoms) of AI 
among bird populations.  He noted that all of the recent human AI 
patients had had contact with poultry either directly or at a wet 
market. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Professor ZHONG Nanshan, Director of the Guangzhou Research 
Institute for Respiratory Diseases, and well-known "SARS Doctor," 
acknowledged that the possibility of asymptomatic AI was a key 
consideration, pointing out that birds can carry the virus 
asymptomatically even after receiving vaccinations.  However, he 
emphasized that the recently reported human AI cases remain 
sporadic, showing no signs of a pandemic outbreak.  He believes that 
the high mortality rate is associated with delays in diagnosis and 
treatment, especially in rural areas, and has encouraged health 
officials to be especially careful with pneumonia cases that cannot 
be effectively controlled within 48 hours. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Deputy Director of Guangxi CDC, CHEN Jie, however, 
questioned the likelihood of asymptomatic AI among birds, stating 
that sick and dead poultry are likely the cause of the January 26 
death of a teenager in Guangxi (REFTEL).  He speculated that Guangxi 
authorities had been unable to locate and test the poultry 
responsible for the infection because the birds probably already had 
been consumed or discarded. 
 
 
GOLDBERG