VZCZCXRO2809
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHDR #0074 0351405
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041405Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8242
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 1145
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 3312
RUEHLGB/AMEMBASSY KIGALI 1240
RUEHJB/AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA 2796
RUEHDS/USMISSION USAU ADDIS ABABA

UNCLAS DAR ES SALAAM 000074 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/E FOR JLIDDLE, INR/AA FOR FEHRENREICH 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TZ
SUBJECT: TANZANIA BY-ELECTION: AN EASY WIN FOR RULING CCM 
 
REF: A: Dar es Salaam 31; B: 2008 Dar es Salaam 722 
 
¶1. (U) Ruling CCM party candidate Rev. Luckson Mwanjale cruised to 
victory in the January 25 by-election in Mbeya Rural district (see 
ref a).  Mwanjale captured 75 percent of the votes, slightly down 
from the near 80 percent won by the prior CCM candidate.  Very low 
voter turnout, 34 percent, may have been partly attributable to the 
absence of the CHADEMA candidate, since CHADEMA declined to throw 
its support behind the leading opposition candidate, from the Civic 
United Front (CUF).  As in the Tarime by-election (ref b), 
candidates from smaller parties had negligible impact: the Sauti ya 
Umma candidate earned fewer than 500 votes out of the 44,000 cast. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Accredited diplomatic observers to the election, including 
from the Embassy's Millennium Challenge Corporation office, met with 
election officials, police and party leaders, including the CUF 
candidate and CCM political leader (and former Prime Minister) John 
Malecela.  Before the election, CUF complained of excessive police 
presence, bias on the part of the Returning Officer, and CCM use of 
government equipment, including vehicles, in the campaign.  Malecela 
was dismissive of CUF (and seemingly of multipartyism) and implied 
that CCM would win on the strength of party loyalty rather than the 
character or opinions of its candidate, who was not made available 
to observers.  The Regional Commissioner, who is responsible for 
public security, told of rumors that CUF had brought in youth gangs 
for intimidation; however, there were no reports of violence during 
the polling. 
 
¶3. (U) Observers from the diplomatic community saw a significant 
need for voter education and better organization on the part of 
electoral officials.  Many voters, particularly women, required 
considerable assistance in the voting process.  While some polling 
stations were well run, others had a much more chaotic environment, 
with deficiencies including failure to ink the fingers of voters who 
had cast their ballots and failure to post openly the registration 
list.  In addition, some polling stations had extra clips for 
closing ballot boxes, which could have created the opportunity for 
tampering.  In several cases, voters' names appeared twice on 
registration lists. 
 
¶4. (U) After the initial ballot counting at each polling station, 
the results in favor of CCM were clear.  The National Electoral 
Commission only released the results two days later, however, in 
part because of CUF objections to the process in some polling 
stations.  Even after the announcement of the results, CUF continued 
to complain in the media that the election had not been freely and 
fairly conducted, and threatened to take legal action.  By the end 
of the week, Rev. Mwanjale had been sworn in as Tanzania's newest 
MP. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Comment: Taken together, the Mbeya Rural and Tarime 
by-elections may give a good indication of the shape of the 2010 
election processes in mainland Tanzania.  NEC has the capability to 
run an election with minor disruptions, but may not devote as many 
resources to contests where the outcome is clear in advance 
(especially in CCM's rural strongholds).  Where CCM is sure of 
victory, the real struggle will be within the party to secure the 
nomination.  The tendency of losing candidates and parties to reject 
results, even where election flaws are minor relative to the margin 
of victory, is disturbing, though at least on the mainland any 
unrest will be quickly contained.  It will be important for the U.S. 
to contribute credibly to the election monitoring operation for 
¶2010.  End comment. 
 
ANDRE