VZCZCXRO8881
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #0173/01 0421728
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 111728Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1842
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000173 
 
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PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KDEM ECON SG
SUBJECT: Senegal: Local Elections- A First Look 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Senegal is scheduled to hold twice postponed local 
elections on March 22, 2009.  The ruling Democratic Party of Senegal 
(PDS) and its coalition partners do not seem ready.  Nevertheless, 
they (and most political observers here) are confident that they 
will easily defeat the opposition coalition in most localities. 
Meanwhile, the National Assembly has already passed several 
amendments to the Electoral Code that are clearly designed to favor 
the ruling party.  For its part, the opposition has warned that it 
would not accept another postponement or attempts at electoral 
fraud.  In spite of the conventional wisdom that they are likely to 
lose the local elections, opposition leaders express confidence, 
saying that the time is ripe for them to hand President Aboudlaye 
Wade a major defeat.  End Summary 
 
The Ruling Party Stacks the Deck in Its Favor 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Up for grabs are all of the seats in the country's 530 
regional, municipal and rural government councils across the 
country's 14 regions.  Senegal uses a complicated hybrid 
plurality-wins-all/proportional representation system for assigning 
council seats.  On December 30, the government amended the law for 
apportioning council seats, ostensibly to produce stable councils 
and to reduce the need to form coalitions.  The modified system 
ensures that the party that wins a plurality of the popular vote in 
a district will automatically have a ruling majority of the seats on 
the council, eliminating the possibility of small parties forming a 
coalition after the election to thwart the will of the ruling party 
(although small parties can submit combined lists of candidates 
beforehand).  Mayors are then selected by a majority of council 
members, not voters. 
 
The Ruling Party Is Not Ready 
----------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Because of poor preparation and petty personal politics, 
the PDS and its coalition partners are in disarray.  In several 
cases, local PDS leaders will go to the polls competing against 
dissidents from the party's own ranks.  The most glaring cases are 
in the vote-rich Parcelles Assainies suburb of Dakar and in 
Saint-Louis where two senior leaders who were not selected by the 
party to run under its banner decided to try their luck without the 
party's blessing.  In many other areas, local dissident leaders are 
staying in rank but protesting loudly and publicly against the 
national party leadership.  For example, in the Bignona department 
in the region of Ziguinchor, former Minister of Defense and current 
National Assembly Deputy Youba Sambou, lambasted the Minister of 
Youth, Mamadou Lamine Keita, for betraying a local agreement about 
who would be the party's candidates. 
 
The Opposition Is Back 
---------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) After boycotting the 2007 legislative elections, this local 
election is the first opportunity for Senegal's opposition parties 
to test out their political clout.  In order to avoid what would 
likely have been a massive electoral defeat, the opposition has 
chosen to contest the elections under a united front called "Benno 
Siggil Senegal" (Unity for Senegal's Victory).  However, quarrels 
between the various leaders within this disjointed coalition, 
especially regarding which party is supposed to get how many seats 
in the lists that are presented, have shown early on the limits of 
this venture.  Talla Sylla, leader of the opposition party Alliance 
for Progress and Justice, told Poloff that the Socialist Party, the 
country's largest opposition party, is running roughshod over its 
allies insisting that as the largest opposition party it should have 
the most representatives.  Sylla said that this is why he left the 
coalition to compete under his own banner in the pivotal city of 
Thies.  Deputy Cheikh Bamba Dieye, a young and upcoming leader, told 
Poloff that it was only after he threatened a solo run that the 
coalition accepted, thirty minutes prior to the deadline to present 
the lists, to place him atop the opposition list in his city of 
Saint-Louis. 
 
Disorganized PDS Still Confident 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Abdou Fall, the Second Vice President of the National 
Assembly, and a close political ally of Wade, did not hesitate to 
tell Poloff that, "The PDS's division is problematic and yet despite 
this glaring weakness we will still win because the opposition is so 
weak."  Fall believes that these elections are very important in 
order to gauge the country's political winds in this delicate 
pre-succession period.  In his view, institutional reforms to 
strengthen the legislative branch and local governments, followed by 
early presidential elections before 2012, would be the best course 
to guarantee Senegal's stability after Wade. 
 
Bending the Rules 
 
DAKAR 00000173  002 OF 002 
 
 
------------------ 
¶6. (SBU)  In a recent meeting of the PDS Directorate, President Wade 
told government officials that anybody who lost in these elections 
would be expected to resign from their government positions(Note: As 
in France, Senegalese law allows for the politicians to hold both 
local elected office and positions in the central government 
concurrently.  End note.) As a result of this stark warning many in 
the party have scrambled to do whatever is necessary to make sure 
that they are well placed to win.  For example, in the region of 
Diourbel, where the ruling party missed the deadline to hand in its 
list, instructions were allegedly given by the Interior Minister to 
the Prefect to accept the PDS' lists.  The National Electoral 
Commission appealed the case to the Court of Appeals for 
nullification but lost. 
 
PDS Likely to Win By Default 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Comment: Despite his party's lack of preparedness and the 
budget crisis facing the GOS, Wade has not yet yielded to the 
temptation to postpone the elections.  All things being equal, the 
PDS should lose big in these local elections given the high level of 
discontent that many Senegalese feel regarding Wade's second stint 
as President.  2008 was a difficult year for the government, 
characterized by high food and fuel prices and budgetary problems. 
As a result, these elections should be a heyday for the opposition. 
However, given its lack of unity and creativity and a dearth of 
charismatic leadership, the opposition may again miss the 
opportunity to take advantage of popular disenchantment with Wade's 
rule.  End comment. 
Bernicat