VZCZCXRO6420
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0097/01 0401558
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091558Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3432
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000097 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: CNDD ANNOUNCES INTENT TO HOLD ELECTIONS IN LAST 
QUARTER OF 2009 - CENI AND CIVIL SOCIETY PUSH FOR DATE 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY.  During a meeting with Charge, the CENI 
President was confident that Guinea could organize both 
presidential and legislative elections by the end of the 
year.  The CENI planned to present CNDD President Dadis with 
a specific proposal, including a timeline, action plan, and 
budget by February 6.  We have not confirmed that CENI 
delivered its package, but the CNDD announced on February 7 
that elections will be held in the last quarter of 2009. 
Civil society is planning to pressure the CNDD to name a 
specific date.  Although the CENI President was generally 
optimistic, he was careful to emphasize that holding 
elections is technically possible, but that the reality will 
ultimately depend on political will.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U) Charge met with Ben Sekou Syllah, President of 
Guinea's National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI), on 
February 2.  Syllah was joined by one of the CENI vice 
presidents and a Colonel from Mali who is acting as a 
consultant to the CENI for the next two months, courtesy of 
the Francophonie.  The Charge was joined by USAID Director 
and Poloff. 
 
--------------------------------- 
CNDD IS WILLING TO HOLD ELECTIONS 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) According to Syllah, the National Council for 
Democracy and Development (CNDD) has publicly demonstrated 
its willingness to organize elections.  Describing the CNDD's 
rhetoric as "encouraging," Syllah said that the CNDD's 
decision to place the CENI directly under its control 
demonstrates the military junta's commitment.  Syllah added 
that the CENI continues to operate as usual without 
interference from the CNDD. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Referring to the late January retreat funded by 
USAID, Syllah said that the conference provided an 
opportunity for CENI members to review its internal structure 
and strategic plan, in consideration of recent political 
changes.  "We have already finished the timeline and our 
action plan, and we're working to finalize the budget," 
Syllah told the Charge.  He said that he planned to present 
the entire proposal to CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara by 
February 6.  Syllah said the proposal includes election 
dates, but that he could not share the dates with the U.S. 
Embassy since Dadis would ultimately need to make the 
decision and the announcement, although Syllah confirmed that 
the CENI is proposing to hold elections sometime in the last 
quarter of 2009.  (COMMENT.  As of late last week, contacts 
indicated that the CENI had not yet passed the proposal to 
Dadis.  END COMMENT). 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In response to a question about perceived political 
will, Syllah said that the CNDD has been publicly supportive 
of elections, but has delegated decisions over timing and 
logistics to the CENI, political parties, and civil society. 
"Once we propose our timeline, everything will be up to the 
CNDD, and then we will all have a better sense of the 
political will," he said. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Syllah emphasized that despite remaining logistical 
challenges, both presidential and legislative elections could 
be organized before the end of the year.  "We know we (the 
CENI) can organize elections this year," he said, adding "the 
reality is going to depend on everyone else...the overall 
political will."  Later, Syllah said that if things did not 
progress according to the realistic timeline the CENI had 
developed, the fault would not lie with the CENI.  Syllah 
noted that the most time consuming element of the timeline is 
the voter registration process, which he said would be 
finished by the end of August.  "After registration is 
completed, we will be free to hold whatever election we 
want," he said. 
 
---------------------------------- 
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM IS NECESSARY 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) On the question of a civil society push for 
constitutional reform, Syllah said that this process needs to 
advance simultaneously.  He stated that the elections should 
not take place without a newly revised constitution in place. 
 However, he did not see this process as a potential cause 
for delay.  According to Syllah, civil society leaders have 
almost finished a draft of the core necessary revisions, 
which they plan to present to the CNDD.  (COMMENT.  It was 
unclear how these changes would be implemented, i.e. via 
presidential decree, national referendum, etc.  END COMMENT). 
 
CONAKRY 00000097  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
FINANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STUMBLING BLOCK 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Syllah emphasized that budgetary constraints are 
much more of a concern than legal issues.  He said that 
continued funding challenges posed the biggest threat to 
holding elections within the year.  Syllah noted that the 
members of the international community, including France and 
ECOWAS, have indicated that they would be willing to 
contribute additional funds to close the funding gap.  Poloff 
questioned whether the Guinean Government would be putting 
forth any funds to which Syllah replied "yes, yes, yes," 
waving his hand as if to suggest that government funding 
would not be a problem.  At this point, the Malian Colonel 
urged the U.S. Embassy and other donors to offer more 
financing in order to overcome any lack of political will to 
move the process forward. 
 
----------------------------------- 
CENI REMAINS COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) During the course of the discussion, Syllah 
repeatedly stressed that the CENI remains independent and has 
"complete authority" to organize elections.  He noted that 
Dadis would need to approve the date and that the CNDD would 
ultimately need to release budgeted funds, but that the 
electoral process itself will remain completely independent. 
"The CNDD will tell us when to have elections...we will 
determine how they will be conducted," he said. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Explaining how the process would work now that the 
CENI has the lead responsibility for elections organization, 
as opposed to the government through the Ministry of 
Territorial Administration and Political Affairs (MATAP), 
Syllah said that MATAP will be responsible for providing all 
technical and logistical assistance.  "They will need to make 
the system available to us," he said.  Syllah said that the 
election steering committee continues to meet regularly, 
confidently adding that "co-management will not be a 
problem." 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Syllah was generally optimistic about the 
prospects of holding both legislative and presidential 
election within the year.  However, he couched his optimism 
in terms of what the CENI actually has control of, leaving 
the door open to blame others for any delays that might 
occur.  The bottom line seemed to be that it is technically 
possible for Guinea to hold elections in 2009, but whether or 
not elections actually happen will be a reflection of 
political will.  The CNDD announced on February 7 that 
elections will be held in the last quarter of 2009, but did 
not specify which elections or a concrete date.  Civil 
society and political parties reportedly intend to pressure 
the CNDD to pinpoint a date.  For the process to advance 
smoothly, a date should be set soon.  END COMMENT. 
RASPOLIC