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C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 000646 

SIPDIS 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2019 
TAGS: ELTN PGOV PREL PTER CO
SUBJECT: BOGOTA MAYOR STRUGGLES AS POLO PARTY SEEKS TO SET 
ITS COURSE 

Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer 
Reasons 1.4 (b and d) 

SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1. (C) Bogota Mayor Samuel Moreno of the leftist Polo Party 
has been slammed by the media over a perceived "collapse" in 
the city--especially in mobility and security.  Amidst 
rapidly falling poll ratings, Moreno has also faced tough 
criticism from members of his own party.   Polo Senator 
Gustavo Petro publicly accused Moreno of filling his cabinet 
with party hacks, and Polo President Carlos Gaviria told us 
he was "appalled" at Moreno's bad start.  Gaviria fears 
Moreno's poor performance will damage Polo's prospects in the 
2010 presidential elections and provide "justification" to 
far-left elements in Polo that favor bullets over ballots. 
Moreno expects things to turn around, citing police crime 
data and planned public works projects.  His faction holds 
the balance of power between the Polo's hard-left wing and 
more moderate elements.  End Summary. 

SEMANA:  "DO SOMETHING, SAMUEL!" 
-------------------------------- 
¶2. (U) Leading news weekly "Semana" magazine, responding to a 
growing "sense that Bogota was collapsing," published a 
sensational cover-story on January 25 urging Bogota Mayor 
Samuel Moreno to "do something" to turn the city around.
"Semana" reported that a series of problems--including a 
"gordian knot" of traffic, deteriorating security, and a lack 
of a clearly articulated vision for the city--had led to the 
perception that Bogota was in a downward spiral.  The article 
noted that Moreno's approval ratings have fallen from 60% to 
32% since taking office.

¶3. (U) Moreno, born in Miami, Florida (1960), following the 
controversial presidency of his grandfather General Gustavo 
Rojas Pinilla, is a former three-term senator from the 
leftist Polo Democratico Party.  He won the Bogota mayor's 
seat--widely considered the second most important elected 
office in Colombia after the presidency--in 2007 with a 
record vote count over former center-right Mayor Enrique 
Penalosa.  He took office in January, 2008.  Moreno's mother 
Maria Rojas was a presidential candidate in the 1970s, and 
his brother Ivan Moreno is a Polo Party senator.  Moreno 
comes from his grandfather's populist, patronage-based 
political tradition and is not known for strong ideological 
positions.  Ivan's tenure as mayor of Bucaramanga was marked 
by numerous corruption scandals. 

SECURITY AND TRAFFIC 
-------------------- 
¶4. (U) Complaints against Moreno center on worsening traffic 
and security, and Moreno's lack of action to fix the 
problems.  The city has seen a 50% increase in the number of 
privately owned vehicles since 2005 (to nearly 1.4 million), 
while few major road projects have been completed.  A recent 
poll showed that 55% percent of Bogota residents do not feel 
secure in the city, compared to 39% in January 2008. 
Thirty-nine percent report being a victim of crime, compared 
to 26% in 2007.  Respondents said they are most fearful of 
organized crime, common crime, youth gangs, and the 
socioeconomic factors (unemployment) that lead to crime. 

CRITICISM MOUNTS 
---------------- 
¶5. (C) Political leader from across the spectrum --especially 
within Moreno's own Polo Party--have sharpened their 
criticism of the mayor as attacks from the media continue. 
Polo Party President Carlos Gaviria told us that he was 
"appalled at how bad" Moreno,s term has begun.  He said he 
told Moreno in November him that, as party president, he 
would continue to support him, "but you need to give me 
something to work with!"  Gaviria said he was hearing 
increasing rumors of corruption in Moreno's cabinet.  He said 

that if solid information emerged on corruption, his support 
for Moreno would end.  Gaviria said he was especially worried 
about Moreno's Secretary of Government, Clara Lopez (and her 
husband), who managed the city's contracts. 

¶6. (C) Polo Senator Gustavo Petro, a potential Polo 
presidential candidate, publicly criticized the mayor for not 
embracing common sense policies on democratic security and 
for allowing government corruption.  He called on Moreno to 
use his power in the Polo to reform the party.  Liberal Party 
Senator Juan Fernando Cristo, a close Moreno friend, told us 
separately that Moreno was too nice a guy to keep his people 
on task and out of the public coffers.  He said he recently 
advised Moreno to "get tough" and make bold moves to break 
the negative perception trend. 

MORENO'S DEFENSE 
---------------- 
¶7. (C) Moreno told us over lunch on February 18 that he 
recognizes that he has a major perception problem, but 
claimed the facts showed a more positive picture.  He said 
the "Semana" article was published on orders of managing 
director Alejandro Santos after Santos was stuck in a traffic 
jam following a rainstorm and flash flood.  Moreno conceded 
the growing traffic problems, but said his government was 
launching a record number of construction projects and would 
have final designs for a planned Metro system ready by the 
end of 2009.  He had also tightened restrictions on the use 
of private vehicles. 

¶8. (C) The mayor also asserted that the facts do not support 
public perceptions of worsening security.  Bogota Police 
reported a small fall in homicides in Bogota for 2008 
(reftel), and other common crimes (robbery, car theft) 
dropped nearly 15%.  Moreno said the recent FARC bombing of a 
Blockbuster video store and the murder of a young journalism 
student in Bogota's main night-life district created a media 
frenzy.  He responded by increasing security in the areas, 
banning open alcohol consumption, and instituting curfews for 
minors.  The media, Moreno complained, reported on the 
student's murder for days after the event, but ignored the 
fact that at the same time Bogota saw its first three day 
stretch without a murder in decades.  Moreno said he 
maintains solid relations with President Uribe and key GOC 
security officials despite highly-publicized run-ins with 
Defense Minister and presidential contender Juan Manuel 
Santos. 

MAYOR AS POWER BROKER ON THE LEFT 
--------------------------------- 
¶9. (C) Polo Senator Gustavo Petro told us Moreno's "populist" 
group holds the balance of power in the Polo between the 
hard-core left (Communists and Maoists) and the center-left 
(Petro, former-Bogota Mayor LuchoGarzon, and former Foreign 
Minister Maria Emma Mejia).  The Moreno brothers continue to 
talk to both Petro and the hard left, but Petro said the 
problem was that Moreno's group consists of opportunists who 
are in government only to make money.  Petro added that 
former President Ernesto Samper--who named four members of 
Moreno's original cabinet--is also influential with Moreno, 
making him even more unreliable. 

¶10. (C) Carlos Gaviria told us Moreno's performance as mayor 
and his role as king maker in the Polo could determine the 
fate of the Party and impact its performance in the 2010 
presidential elections.  The Polo will hold its party 
congress February 27-29, and center-left leaders including 
Garzon and Petro told us they would leave the Party if hard 
core leftists --opposed to forming moderate coalitions with a 
chance to win elections--take control.  Moreno's group 
controls the balance, and Gaviria fears that the Polo could 
split if the far left and centrist camps cannot come 
together.  Former-President Cesar Gaviria told us separately 
that his Liberal Party would take a "big tent" approach in 

2010, and would welcome the Polo's center-leftists. 

¶11. (C)  CarlosGaviria said a failed Moreno Administration 
in Bogota--which represents up to 25% of all voters in the 
country--could help lead to a "devastating" result for any 
Polo presidential candidate.  He also fears a poor Polo 
showing could give ammunition to far-left elements who argue 
for the continued need to use "all forms of struggle" 
(violence) instead of the ballot box. 

BROWNFIELD 

=======================CABLE ENDS============================