R 191557Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 3354
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
AMCONSUL MUNICH
AMCONSUL HAMBURG

UNCLAS BERLIN 000209 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG EPET ETRD PREL GM RS TU UP
SUBJECT: A REVITALIZED NUCLEAR INDUSTRY MAKES A STRONG CASE FOR 
NUCLEAR POWER IN GERMANY 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Germany's current policy to phase out nuclear 
power by 2021 is coming under fire from leaders of the CDU/CSU and 
FDP, while Germany's nuclear industry is increasingly confident of 
winning an indefinite reprieve from the ban should a 
conservative/liberal coalition form the next government.  German 
nuclear power proponents see themselves as part of a worldwide 
trend, as the economic downturn, scarcity of fossil fuels and the 
threat of global warming make nuclear power a more attractive option 
to secure the nation's energy supply.  End Summary. 
 
Growing Political Support for Nuclear Power 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Nuclear reactors currently provide 22 percent of Germany's 
energy.  Germany's current nuclear policy calls for the phasing out 
of nuclear power by 2021.  Chancellor Merkel has dismissed this 
policy as "unreasonable."  Werner Marnette, a member of the 
Chancellor's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Party and a Minister 
in the state of Schleswig-Holstein on February 11 called for the 
retention of nuclear power plants in his state, saying that "it is 
essential that we allow our three nuclear plants to keep running or 
we won't have enough energy."  Three of Germany's 17 nuclear plants 
are in Schleswig-Holstein. 
 
¶3. (U) Taking their cue from developments in other countries, 
growing numbers of politicians from the CDU, its Bavarian sister 
party the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the Free Democratic 
Party (FDP), have in recent weeks begun to call openly for a 
reassessment of Germany's nuclear power policy.  They point to 
Sweden's recent decision to reverse its ban and allow the 
construction of new nuclear power plants as part of its climate 
protection package.  Speaking on 5 February, CDU spokesman Ronald 
Pofalla welcomed the move, stating "This is a clear signal that 
nuclear energy is still necessary as part of a broadly based mixture 
of energy resources."  Poffala went on to criticize the SPD for "no 
longer being up-to-date with its unconditional commitment to a 
nuclear phase-out policy and meanwhile also being completely 
isolated internationally."  Earlier, Deputy Chairwoman of the 
CDU/CSU Bundestag Group Katherina Reiche told the press that "if 
European countries are planning the construction of new plants, 
Germany must not stand apart." 
 
Putting Opponents on the Defensive 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) In response, Environmental Minister Gabriel (SPD) claimed 
that he and his party are "not afraid" to make nuclear power an 
issue in the upcoming elections.  Gabriel dismissed calls for an 
extension of Germany's nuclear plants or the construction of new 
ones.  Arguing that nuclear power is not practical for Germany in 
the absence of a permanent disposal site for nuclear waste, he 
stated "we have to look for suitable sites throughout Germany." 
(NB. Gabriel is a former Minister President of Lower Saxony the site 
currently favored by industry and science for permanent disposal of 
nuclear Germany's nuclear waste.)  Greens Party co-Chair Cem Ozdemir 
also dismissed any extension of the lifetimes of existing nuclear 
power plants, saying that such a move would only serve the interests 
of the operators and not the consumers.  The Left Party issued its 
own statement calling the construction of new reactors "completely 
uneconomical" as the technology is "not manageable." 
 
Proponents Take Their Cue from the Industry 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) On 5 February, Econoff attended the annual Winter Meeting 
of the Atom Forum, the German nuclear industry's lobbying group.  In 
his opening remarks, Atom Forum President Walter Hohlefelder, a 
member of the Board of E.On, listed a series of arguments in favor 
of nuclear power for Germany. 
 
--Nuclear Energy will prove necessary for Germany's recovery from 
the current economic crisis, as it will provide steady, reliable 
power to the economy at no extra expense to the taxpayers. 
 
--Germany does not have a reliable supply of natural gas because of 
its problematic supply relationship with Russia. 
 
--This has compelled Germany to begin thinking actively about 
alternatives to natural gas. 
 
--Nuclear power is not only more reliable than natural gas, it has 
no CO2 emissions and will help Germany meet its emissions targets 
while keeping energy prices lower. 
 
--Current energy prices will start to increase after the end of the 
recession. 
 
--The current German policy of phasing out nuclear power is 
"unrealistic," as Germany will not be able to find the resources to 
replace the 22 percent of electricity generated by nuclear plants. 
 
--While the nuclear industry has no conflict with renewable energy, 
Germany cannot restrict its sources of supply and must use all 
sources available, including nuclear. 
 
--Popular opinion in Germany has shifted, with 58 percent of 
respondents in current polls favoring the retention of nuclear power 
plants. 
 
--While the storage of nuclear waste is the "Achilles heel" of the 
industry, it is not a "technical problem" but rather a "political 
problem," as the industry already has workable processes. 
 
--In coming years, Germany will only become more reliant on coal if 
it does not retain its nuclear plants.  Without nuclear power, 
Germany would currently be using an additional 150 million tons of 
coal per year. 
 
--Germany plans to put 5 million electric cars on the road by 2030, 
which must have a clean source of power.  This will cause a huge 
surge in demand for electric power. 
 
--Nuclear power is on the increase worldwide, with 68 plants in 
planning and construction, including 26 new projects slated for the 
U.S. 
 
--German companies are constructing many of these plants.  It makes 
no sense for them to build plants outside of Germany while being 
denied the opportunity to build inside. 
 
Views of a German Insider 
------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) On 4 February Econoff met with Christian Wilson, the Press 
Spokesman for the German affiliate of the French nuclear power 
company Areva.  Wilson confirmed that there has been a shift within 
the industry regarding its future prospects.  That same day, the 
German industrial giant Siemens announced that it was ending its 
partnership with Areva and entering into negotiations for a series 
of joint ventures with the Russian public sector nuclear company 
Rosatom.  Wilson pointed out that when Siemens initialled its 
partnership with Areva in the late 1990's, most expected nuclear 
power to go nowhere.  This had now changed, with almost universal 
expectations that nuclear power will be a growth industry around the 
world.  Siemens, he speculated, was hoping that a partnership with 
the Russians would open up new opportunities for expansion. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Wilson confirmed that the nuclear industry has been 
reassured by the leadership of the CDU/CSU and FDP that should they 
form Germany's next government, they would move to indefinitely 
extend the life of the country's nuclear plants.  Similar views were 
aired during the Atom Forum event.  Wilson pointed out that while 
new nuclear plants are not currently part of the agenda, the 
industry was increasingly confident that these could become a 
serious prospect sometime in the future, depending on the outcome of 
the next election. 
 
Conservative Parties More Amenable 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) On February 13, ECONMIN attended the annual closed door 
session of the CDU Economic Council, during which a select group of 
the CDU/CSU leadership held unusually frank discussions with 
environmental/energy experts and business leaders.  The theme of the 
event was "Energy and Environmental Policy." 
 
¶9. (SBU) In his address, Economics Ministry State Secretary Jochen 
Homann stressed that Germany, because of its nuclear ban, must now 
replace nuclear power while facing a "huge increase" in energy 
demand.  Homann lamented that by "going it alone" and dispensing 
with nuclear power, Germany will increase its dependence on oil, 
natural gas and coal.  Homann emphasized that Germany will need to 
reconsider nuclear power as it must diversify energy supply.  With 
other countries turning to nuclear as "clean energy," Germany may 
have to import electricity generated by their nuclear power plants. 
Christa Thoben, the Energy Minister of Nordrhein-Westphalen, pointed 
out that nuclear plants are being constructed all over Europe.  She 
urged Germany to reconsider nuclear plants as part of its climate 
protection policy. 
 
¶10. (SBU) In her remarks to the session, Chancellor Merkel confirmed 
that the CDU would address nuclear policy during the upcoming 
national election campaign, but did not specify what the party's 
position would be.  When asked, she refused to address whether the 
CDU would reconsider the nuclear ban after the election.  She also 
found it likely that Germany would import power generated by nuclear 
plants in France and elsewhere. 
Thinking the Unthinkable 
------------------------ 
 
¶11. (SBU) The public statements of CDU/CSU and FDP politicians and 
the nuclear industry, as represented by its lobbying groups, reflect 
a growing convergence.  It was not too long ago that nuclear power 
was a taboo subject in Germany, and its opponents thought that the 
issue was permanently resolved.  Since then, events such as the 
world economic downturn, spiking energy prices, the increasing 
sophistication of nuclear reactors, research into nuclear waste 
disposal and growing concerns about CO2 emissions have enlivened 
nuclear power proponents.  With conservative political parties more 
amendable, there is a growing sense that the subject must be 
reopened for discussion. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) We expect that nuclear power could be a prominent theme in 
the run-up to this year's national election (September 27).  Nuclear 
power proponents have told us in private that they would view the 
formation of a CDU/CSU/FDP government as a concrete sign that a 
shift in nuclear policy is in the offing.  Even if another 
CDU/CSU-SPD "Grand Coalition" is formed after the September 
election, the nuclear power industry is increasingly confident that 
time is on its side.  Should polls showing a growing shift in 
popular opinion prove correct, the chances for nuclear power in 
Germany could improve. 
Koenig