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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000142 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
PLEASE PASS TO H FOR SENATOR MCCAIN AND SENATOR LIEBERMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: AFIN AMGT ASEC OREP PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL MCCAIN/LIEBERMAN TO MUNICH, 
FEBRUARY 6-8 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified 
 
¶1.  (U) Mission Germany is delighted to welcome you to Munich 
for the 45th Munich Security Conference (MSC).  The high 
profile U.S. delegation is eliciting extreme interest from 
the MSC's international participants, among them more than 70 
heads of state or government, and foreign and defense 
ministers -- the most illustrious line-up in the Conference's 
long history. 
 
¶2.  (U) The profile of the MSC continues to rise under 
Wolfgang Ischinger's leadership, and a European and global 
media audience (in broadcast and print as well as YouTube) 
will be eager for insights into the U.S international 
security agenda with a new Administration and Congress.  With 
the April 3-4 NATO Summit in Strasbourg and Kehl (Germany) 
only two months away, there will also be a keen interest in 
the U.S. vision for the Transatlantic Alliance (and for 
U.S.-EU relations). 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Political Overview: Germany increasingly is looking 
toward to the next federal election, which will take place on 
September 27, 2009.  Chancellor Merkel remains highly 
popular, and polls show that her Christian Democrats (CDU) 
and their Bavarian sister party (the Christian Social Union 
-- CSU) currently enjoy narrowly enough support to enable 
them to form a center-right coalition with the Free Democrats 
(FDP). Another "Grand Coalition" (CDU/CSU and the Social 
Democratic Party -- SPD), however, is also a possible 
coalition outcome.  The SPD -- the junior partner in the 
Grand Coalition -- is polling at a post-war nadir, with 
numbers in the 23-26 percent range, and must contend with the 
rising popularity of the relatively new Left Party.  The Left 
Party is focused primarily on returning the welfare state and 
advocates an isolationist foreign policy that would undermine 
the transatlantic relationship.  The Chancellor and her CDU 
hold an imposing lead in the polls over Steinmeier and the 
SPD.  Some observers believe that Steinmeier is trying to 
associate himself in the public eye with the new U.S. 
Administration to boost his popularity. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Russia: Germany's extensive diplomatic, energy, and 
business ties with Moscow make it an important partner in 
meeting the challenge of Russia's renewed assertiveness in 
its neighborhood and beyond.  Germany views itself as a 
bridge between Russia and the West because of historical ties 
and economic interdependence.  While recognizing that Russia 
often tries to divide the West through, for example, policies 
such as President Medvedev,s proposal for a new European 
security architecture, Germany highlights the need to engage 
with Russia and maintain open channels of communication, such 
as through the NATO Russia Council.  Germany will continue to 
highlight the significance of joint U.S.-Russian disarmament 
initiatives, and preserving but reforming the CFE Treaty. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Afghanistan: This is one of the topics that will 
dominate the conference. Germany agrees that success in 
Afghanistan is essential, and the Chancellor has called it a 
litmus test for NATO.  Germans will be hoping to better 
understand the timing and direction of any changes in U.S. 
policy.  Germany is unlikely to raise its 4,500-troop limit 
this year, but can do more on the civilian side and on 
training security forces. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Iran: Germany has supported U.S. efforts to 
increase pressure on Iran, including through UNSC sanctions. 
Germany is eager to learn more about how the U.S. will 
approach Iran, preferring diplomacy and dialogue, while 
enforcing non-negotiable expectations of Tehran: no support 
for terrorism and violence in the region, and no nuclear 
weapons.  Germany supports the IAEA's inspection regime and 
is committed to Israel's security. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) NATO Summit (April 2009): Participants will be 
focused not only on celebrating NATO's 60th anniversary but 
on defining and discussing NATO's core mission in a 
"Declaration on Alliance Security."  Other topics for 
discussion will include how to deal with Russia and 
NATO-Russia relations, missile defense, and Afghanistan.  The 
Summit will represent an opportunity to encourage Germany to 
resume a leading role in a 21st Century NATO confronting 
challenges globally. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Economic Crisis: Germany is experiencing its worst 
recession since World War II, with its export-dependent 
economy expected to shrink by over two percent and 
unemployment on the rise.  In October 2008, the government 
created a 500 billion euro rescue fund to shore up German 
 
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banks and approved a 12 billion euro stimulus plan in 
November.  Parliament is currently debating a second stimulus 
package worth 50 billion euros over two years.  Germany has 
resisted French proposals for a European or international 
regulator, though Merkel recently proposed creating an World 
Economic Council under UN auspices.  The Chancellor,s 
consensus-seeking approach has made it difficult for her 
rival Steinmeier to carve an independent niche within the 
economic debate.  Polls indicate Germans approve of Merkel's 
approach. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Energy Security/Climate: The Russian gas cut-off 
undermined the faith of German officials in Russia as a 
reliable energy provider.  Germany is now more receptive to 
the need to approach the issue of energy security on a 
Europe-wide level.  Linking the need for reliable and diverse 
sources of energy to the Administration's climate change 
initiatives (which are very popular in Germany) may lay the 
groundwork for effective cooperation with Merkel's government. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Mission Germany and I look forward to welcoming 
you in Munich and to supporting you and your CODEL during the 
Munich Security Conference. 
Koenig