R 272154Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY BELMOPAN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1702
WHA CENTRAL AMERICA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS BELMOPAN 000080 
 
 
FOR WHA/CEN - CHRISTOPHER ASHE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINS SOCI BH
SUBJECT:  PREVIEWING BELIZE'S MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 2009: UDP LIKELY 
TO KEEP ITS POLITICAL MOMENTUM 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  Summary:  After a landslide victory in the 2008 general 
elections, the United Democratic Party (UDP) is now preparing for 
the 2009 municipal elections amidst criticism for lacking a clear 
policy agenda and a weakened economy.  The new Peoples United 
Party(PUP) leadership has declared its determination to distance 
itself from the PUP 'old guard', whom most hold responsible for the 
mismanagement of the country's finances.  However, most expect 
little to change during this election on March 4.  End summary. 
 
----------------------------- 
United Democratic Party (UDP) 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  The UDP came to power in February 2008 after campaigning its 
anti-corruption platform.  During its first year in office, however, 
it has encountered several snags in implementing its program.  The 
UDP bundled two proposed constitutional amendments into a single 
piece of legislation.  One amendment, initially floated as part of 
the UDP platform, changes the make-up of the Senate from a rubber 
stamp body (controlled by the ruling party) to a body with the 
majority of seats designated for the opposition and several social 
partners (Council of Churches and others).  It will be a real 
counter-balance to the power of the executive with a majority in 
National Assembly.  The second proposed amendment declares that all 
minerals (including oil) in Belize are the property of the people 
and by extension the government.  The terms of this proposed 
amendment are being contested in the Supreme Court (the second 
highest court in Belize) and a decision is pending.  The litigation 
over mineral rights has put the amendment on the Senate into limbo 
since the two issues were bundled in the legislation.  Additionally, 
highly publicized internal UDP disputes, allegations of corruption 
at the municipal level, and severe flooding in 2008 have not helped 
the UDP. 
 
¶3.  At the UDP party conventions candidate slots for mayoral 
positions have been hotly contested and there seem to be some 
intra-party disputes.  We see cabinet ministers publicly supporting 
different candidates, creating the appearance of a power struggle at 
the ministerial level.  In addition, there have been numerous 
allegations of financial mismanagement and lack of transparency at 
the office of the Belize City Council. 
 
--------------------------- 
People's United Party (PUP) 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4.  Among Belize's nine municipalities, only one has a PUP mayor -- 
Punta Gorda.  Since the general elections, the PUP has emerged as a 
split party.  A new party leader, Johnny Briceno, has been working 
to transform the party's image to that of a more accountable and 
responsible party.  However, there remains a substantial divide 
between the new regime and the old party leadership in the run up to 
election this March 4. 
 
¶5.  Comment:  The results of the municipal elections will be only 
marginally indicative of the Belize public's assessment of the 
performance of the UDP leadership after one year in power. 
Historically, the incumbent party usually garners most of the seats 
after a landslide general election victory.  Additionally, 
dissatisfaction with a new government is usually indicated low voter 
turnout, rather than a vote for the opposition.  We have also noted 
this general lack of interest in the municipal elections in recent 
conversations with members of the Belizean public. 
 
¶6. The Vision Inspired by the People (VIP) Party is running again in 
Belmopan.  Although they received a substantial number of votes in 
the last municipal election, their usual tactic of publicizing 
problems of the incumbent government and offering the VIP as a third 
party alternative has been noticeably less successful.  This time 
around they have less funding and are not expected to have a 
significant impact on this election. 
 
¶7.  The main issues in this election include cost of living, crime, 
government finances, and territorial rights.  Many of the financial 
challenges have carried over from the previous PUP government.  The 
new PUP leadership is determined to distance itself from the 'old 
guard' whom most hold responsible for mismanagement of the country's 
finances.  However, most expect little to change during this 
election on March 4.  End Comment. 
 
DIFFILY