VZCZCXRO3362
RR RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHKUK RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLB #0229 0571420
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261420Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4295
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000229 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO AND NEA/ELA 
ALSO FOR IO/PDAS WARLICK 
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY 
USUN FOR WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER/GERMAIN 
NSC FOR MCDERMOTT, SHAPIRO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINR LE
SUBJECT:  LEBANON:  PALIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT:  ALEY 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) This is the seventh in a series of snapshots we will 
produce for key electoral districts ("qada") in the run-up to the 
June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Aley is one of six electoral districts in the Mount 
Lebanon administrative area.  There are five parliamentary seats in 
this predominantly Druze and Christian district, all of which are 
currently held by MPs allied with March 14 Druze leader Walid 
Jumblatt.  However, analysts predict that one Druze seat may be lost 
to Youth and Sports opposition Minister Talal Arslan, also a Druze. 
End summary. 
 
ALEY:  A BRIEF OVERVIEW 
----------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) The district of Aley is the only Druze majority district in 
Lebanon (56 percent), with Christians the most significant minority 
(43 percent).  The city of Aley has attracted seasonal tourists 
since the late 1800s when the railroad that linked Beirut to 
Damascus was built.  The railroad provided Beirutis easy means of 
transportation to the mountains, and this made Aley a popular 
destination to spend the summer months.  Attractions today include 
an historic souk, nightclubs, antique shops and a casino. 
 
¶4.  (U) The distribution of Aley's five parliamentary seats is:  two 
Druze seats, two Maronite seats, and one Greek Orthodox seat. 
Currently all seats are held by MPs allied with March 14 Druze 
leader Walid Jumblatt. 
 
FACTORS AT PLAY 
IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
-------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Analysts predict March 14 will retain four seats, but may 
lose one seat to opposition candidate and current Minister of Youth 
and Sport Talal Arslan.  Arslan, a Druze rival of Jumblatt, claims 
that he protected Jumblatt and his allies from harm during the 
Hizballah-led May 2008 clashes in Aley.  Observers say this may lead 
to an "electoral understanding" between Jumblatt and Arslan; 
however, both say that no agreement has been made.  Analysts also 
say that Jumblatt will have to negotiate the names of the March 14 
Christian candidates with his March 14 Christian allies -- i.e., 
Amine Gemayle's Kataeb Party and Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces -- 
and will not be free to decide on those himself. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Another important factor in the parliamentary elections 
will be the security situation in Aley.  Following the May 2008 
clashes, Jumblatt and Arslan are both cautious and urge their 
supporters not to initiate intra-Druze violence.  However, the 
possibility exists that at lower levels, violence could erupt 
between the competing factions. 
 
SISON