VZCZCXRO7777
RR RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHKUK RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLB #0201 0511054
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 201054Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4254
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000201 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO AND NEA/ELA 
ALSO FOR IO/PDAS WARLICK 
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY 
USUN FOR WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER/GERMAIN 
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT:  LEBANON:  ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT:  WEST BEKAA-RASHAYA 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (U) This is the sixth in a series of snapshots we are producing 
on key electoral districts ("quda") in the run-up to the June 7, 
2009 parliamentary elections. 
 
¶2. (SBU) West Bekaa-Rashaya is the agricultural heartland of 
Lebanon.  No single confessional group dominates this district, 
which lies in southeast Lebanon on the border with Syria.   Although 
Sunnis enjoy a plurality, large Christian, Druze, and Shia 
populations are also present. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The six parliamentary seats in West Bekaa-Rashaya will be 
hotly contested unless an electoral deal to split the seats evenly 
between March 14 and the opposition is solidified before the June 7 
elections.  Analysts differ on projections for results in this 
region if it is contested.  Violence and Syrian meddling are 
wildcards in the confessionally-diverse area.  End summary. 
 
WEST BEKAA-RACHAYA: 
A BRIEF OVERVIEW 
------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) The West Bekaa-Rachaya district, two qadas merged into one 
electoral area, is the agricultural heartland of Lebanon and one of 
its most confessionally diverse districts.  No sect represents a 
majority of registered voters.  Sunnis constitute 47 percent of the 
West Bekaa-Rashaya population, but there are significant Christian 
(25 percent), Druze (15 percent), and Shia (13 percent) communities 
also. 
 
¶5. (U) The distribution of West Bekaa's six parliamentary seats is: 
two Sunni, one Shia, one Maronite, one Druze, and one Greek Orthodox 
seat.  An alliance in 2005 between the Sunni Future Movement, Druze 
Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), Shia Amal Movement, and Shia 
Hizballah led those groups to win the district's six seats. 
 
FACTORS AT PLAY 
IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) In this confessionally diverse district, violence between 
factions in the run-up to elections is possible.  For example, 
scuffles occurred in January between supporters of MP Saad Hariri's 
Future Movement and pro-Syrian Union Party head Abdel Rahim Mrad. 
Although March 14 and March 8 contacts agree that an electoral 
alliance -- that would split the seats evenly between the sides -- 
would help to maintain calm in the region, neither side has made 
strong efforts to reach such a deal. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Analysts differ on the results of the West Bekaa-Rashaya 
district in the absence of a deal.  March 14 candidates, including 
incumbents Maronite Robert Ghanem and Druze Wael Abu Faour, believe 
they can score a victory here.  However, opposition Christian 
figures argue that the large Shia population that voted for Future's 
Christian candidates in 2005 will vote for March 8 Christians in 
¶2009.  Because no eletoral arrangement yet exists, all parties are 
inreasing their campaigning to prepare for a battle at the polls. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Syrian involvement in this area is also a factor.  Our 
contacts say that Lebanese figures from the Bekaa have traveled more 
frequently to Syria since the establishment of diplomatic relations 
in October 2008.  Mrad and his pro-Syrian Union party are 
influential and well-connected in the region.  Communists and other 
leftists are also present. 
 
SISON