VZCZCXRO7755
RR RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHKUK RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLB #0200 0511042
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 201042Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4253
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000200 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO AND NEA/ELA 
ALSO FOR IO/PDAS WARLICK 
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY 
USUN FOR WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER/GERMAIN 
NSC FOR MCDERMOTT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT:  LEBANON:  ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT:  SIDON 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (U) This is the fourth in a series of snapshots we are 
producing on key electoral districts ("qada") in the run-up 
to the June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections. 
 
¶2. (SBU) South Lebanon is divided into two "muhafazas" 
(administrative areas): Nabatieh and South Lebanon.  The heavily 
Sunni city of Sidon comprises one of four electoral districts in the 
South Lebanon muhafaza. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Sidon has two parliament seats, both designated for Sunni 
MPs.  In 2005, the quadripartite agreement of Future Movement, 
Hizballah, Amal, and the Progressive Socialist Party agreed to split 
the district's seats between MP Bahia Hariri  and her political 
rival MP Ossama Saad in an uncontested election.  Analysts say a 
similar arrangement is possible in 2009, but if the election were 
contested, there would be a risk of violent clashes between Hariri 
and Saad supporters.  The presence in Sidon of the large, 
often-tense Ain el-Hilweh Palestinian camp adds to the concern about 
electoral violence. 
 
SIDON:  A BRIEF 
OVERVIEW 
-------------- 
 
¶4. (U) The Sidon electoral district is home to the largest city in 
southern Lebanon.  Lebanon's largest Palestinian camp, Ain 
el-Hilweh, overlaps the city's limits.  The district is 
overwhelmingly Sunni (84 percent of registered voters) and home to 
Sidon political stalwarts MP and Minister Bahia Hariri and MP Ossama 
Saad.  The two rivals agreed to run an uncontested list in 2005. 
Hariri is the aunt of majority leader Saad Hariri and sister of the 
late former PM Rafiq Hariri. 
 
FACTORS AT PLAY 
IN PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS 
---------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Analysts say a similar agreement between Bahia Hariri and 
Ossama Saad is possible in this district in 2009, but no deal has 
been solidified.  For his part, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, a 
Sidon native, hopes a compromise is struck for 2009 elections. 
March 14 Druze leader Jumblatt, on the other hand, has told us he 
supports the idea of Sidon native and current PM Fouad Siniora 
running for a seat, a stance that would lead to March 14 and March 8 
to have competing lists in the district.  Siniora, who is currently 
not an MP, has not commented on the possibility. 
 
¶7. (SBU) In the absence of a pre-determined electoral deal, Sidon 
likely would be the scene of intense campaigning.  Lebanon's Ain 
el-Hilweh Palestinian camp, the largest camp in the country, 
intersects Sidon both physically and socially.  Camp refugees and 
Sidon residents are intertwined through family times and other 
social links; problems from the camp could easily spill into the 
city.  Frequent security incidents in the camp make violence in the 
Sidon area a real concern for upcoming elections. 
 
SISON