VZCZCXRO0351
PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHKUK RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLB #0169 0431526
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 121526Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4192
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3458
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3662
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000169 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA 
ALSO FOR I/O PDAS WARLICK 
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY 
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER 
NSC FOR SHAPIRO/MCDERMOTT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: THE METN 
 
REF: A. BEIRUT 91 
     ¶B. 08 BEIRUT 1729 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (U) This is the third in a series of snapshots we are 
producing on key electoral districts ("qada") in the run-up 
to the June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Metn is one of six electoral districts in the 
Mount Lebanon administrative area. There are eight 
parliamentary seats in this Christian stronghold, seven of 
which are currently held by MPs of Michel Aoun's Change and 
Reform bloc. The eighth seat is held by independent 
politician and Metn powerbroker Michel Murr.  The 
parliamentary race in Metn is expected to be one of the most 
hotly contested in Lebanon.  Currently, analysts predict that 
Aoun's bloc will win six seats, Murr will take one, and 
Kataeb's Sami Gemayel will win the seat his brother Pierre 
occupied when he was assassinated in 2006.  Regardless of the 
result, all eyes in Lebanon will be on the behavior of the 
unpredictable Michel Murr, who ran with Aoun's bloc in the 
2005, then pulled out of it in early 2008, as well as on the 
voting patterns of the significant Armenian population of the 
district.  End summary. 
 
METN: A BRIEF OVERVIEW 
---------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) The Metn is a wealthy Christian district north and 
east of Beirut (the U.S. Embassy is located in the Metn), 
with a diverse mixture of Christian sects and a very small 
Muslim minority.  It is the stronghold of independent Greek 
Orthodox politician Michel Murr, who holds great sway over 
its voters, as well as of the Gemayel family, whose home 
village of Bikfaya is located in the district. 
 
¶4. (U) The distribution of the Metn's eight parliamentary 
seats is: four Maronites, two Greek Orthodox, one Armenian 
Orthodox, and one Greek Catholic.  In the 2005 elections, 
Murr ran on a list with Aoun's candidates, and they swept 
seven seats, leaving one open for Kataeb's Pierre Gemayel. 
After Gemayel's assassination in 2006, Murr's support in the 
Metn helped Camille Khoury, the candidate of Aoun's Free 
Patriotic Movement (FPM), defeat Pierre Gemayel's father, the 
former president Amine Gemayel, in the 2007 by-election to 
fill Pierre's seat.  In March 2008, the independent-minded 
Murr withdrew from Aoun's bloc.  Thus currently seven seats 
are held by MPs allied with Michel Aoun's Change and Reform 
bloc, while Murr holds one Greek Orthodox seat. 
 
FACTORS AT PLAY 
IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
-------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Murr's defection from Aoun's bloc changed the 
political calculus of the Metn.  The Armenian Tashnaq party, 
long-time allies of Michel Murr, forged their own political 
alliance with FPM for the 2005 elections, and most Embassy 
contacts see that alliance as stable, barring a change in 
heart from March 14 leader Saad Hariri, who has resisted 
overtures by the Armenians (reftels).  Murr maintains that 
Tashnaq will be part of his independent list, but as of now, 
Tashnaq contacts tell us they will likely support Murr 
himself for a Metn seat, but not the rest of his list, 
preferring to stay with Aoun.  With fifteen percent of the 
Metn electorate, the Armenian community has often swung the 
vote in the Metn, notably in the 2007 by-election. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Meanwhile, Murr announced February 5 that he will 
run on the same list with Sami Gemayel, Pierre's brother. 
Analysts currently predict that Murr and Gemayel will win 
seats, while the other six would go to Aoun's bloc, which 
essentially means no change compared to 2005. 
 
SISON