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FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3451

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000159 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO AND NEA/ELA 
ALSO FOR IO/PDAS WARLICK 
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY 
USUN FOR WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER/GERMAIN 
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT:  LEBANON:  PALIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT:  THE CHOUF 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) This is the second in a series of snapshots we will produce 
for key electoral districts ("qada") in the run-up to the June 7, 
2009 parliamentary elections. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The Chouf is one of six electoral districts in the Mount 
Lebanon administrative area.  There are eight parliamentary seats in 
this predominantly Druze and Christian district, all of which are 
currently held by MPs allied with March 14 Druze leader Walid 
Jumblatt.  Although Christian voters are significant in numbers, 
Jumblatt remains the most significant player in the district, his 
ancestral homeland. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Analysts predict that a Jumblatt-backed list will win all 
eight seats in the Chouf for March 14.  However, March 14 Christians 
continue to bicker about which parties in the coalition will have 
the right to name candidates for two of the Maronite seats.  End 
summary. 
 
THE CHOUF: A BRIEF OVERVIEW 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Located southeast of Beirut, the Chouf is a narrow  strip 
that touches the coast and includes the predominantly Christian town 
of Damour and the valleys and mountains of the western slopes of 
al-Barouk Mountain.  Its economy depends heavily on agriculture and 
tourism.  Wild fires during the summer of 2008 badly damaged or 
destroyed 5.7 million square meters of precious forests and 
agricultural land.  These fires present a continuing threat to the 
Chouf's environment and economic activities. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The distribution of the Chouf's eight parliamentary seats 
is:  two Druze seats, two Sunni seats, three Maronite seats and one 
Greek-Catholic seat.  Currently, all seats are held by MPs allied 
with March 14 Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. 
 
FACTORS AT PLAY 
IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Analysts predict March 14 will retain all eight seats. 
However, Jumblatt and his Christian and Sunni allies have yet to 
agree on which candidates to run for two of the Maronite slots, with 
Lebanese Forces' George Adwan (incumbent), Liberal Party leader Dory 
Chamoun (Jumblatt's pick) and Hariri advisor Ghattas Khoury all 
vying for the two seats.  Maronite Eli Aoun, representing the 
coastal area, should retain the third Maronite seat to ensure 
geographical balance among Christian candidates. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Jumblatt remains focused on maintaining a calm security 
situation in the Chouf following the May, 2008 clashes there with 
Hizballah.  There is, however, the risk of violence between 
Jumblatt's followers and supporters of the Syrian Socialist National 
Party (SSNP) and former Minister Wiam Wahhab.  In addition, the 
presence of a military base manned by the Popular Front for the 
Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-PC) in Naameh village, 
in the heart of the Chouf, could be a source of tension during the 
election. 
 
SISON