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PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLBA #0154 0371552
ZNR UUUUU ZZH ZUI (CCY ADX29DF43 MSI3904-623)
P 061552Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4169
INFO ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
ZEN/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000154 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA 
ALSO FOR IO/PDAS WARLICK 
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY 
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER 
NSC FOR MCDERMOTT 
 
C O R R E C T E D   C O P Y  (TEXT) 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: TRIPOLI 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) This is the first in a series of snapshots we will 
produce for key electoral districts ("qada") in the run-up to 
the June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Tripoli, once a vibrant and vital economic hub, is 
one of seven electoral districts in the North Lebanon 
administrative area. There are eight parliamentary seats for 
the district in this Sunni stronghold, all of which are 
currently held by MPs allied with majority leader Saad 
Hariri's March 14 coalition.  However, it is clear that the 
four top political leaders in Tripoli (Hariri, Minister of 
Economy and Trade Mohammad Safadi, and former PMs Najib 
Mikati and Omar Karame) will all play a role in determining 
candidate lists for both the majority and the opposition 
parties for the June 7 parliamentary elections. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Currently, analysts predict that at least one seat 
will be won by an opposition candidate, and potentially one 
other seat could go to an independent candidate.  One of te 
major factors that will affect the elections i Tripoli will 
be how well violence is controlled in the event clashes 
erupt, again, between rival communities.  End summary. 
 
TRIPOLI: A BRIEF 
OVERVIEW 
---------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Tripoli, known in its glory days as the top industrial 
and commercial city of north Lebanon, has experienced 
economic decline after the closure of most factories, the oil 
refinery, the main cargo railway, and airport.  Tripoli's 
population is predominantly Sunni, but significant minorities 
of Alawites and Christians are registered voters there. 
Tripoli is also very near to the Nahr al-Barid and Beddawi 
Palestinian refugee camps. 
 
¶5. (U) The distribution of Tripoli's eight parliamentary 
seats is: five Sunni seats and one each for an Alawaite, 
Maronite, and Greek Orthodox MP.  Currently, all seats are 
held by MPs allied with Sunni majority leader Saad Hariri's 
March 14 coalition. 
 
FACTORS AT PLAY 
IN PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS 
----------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) For the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled 
for June 7, analysts predict that March 14 will likely retain 
six seats, but will either cede or lose one seat to an 
opposition candidate and to an independent.  Interlocutors 
tell us that the candidate lists for Tripoli will be 
determined based on the ability of Tripolis top political 
leaders: Hariri, Minister of Economy and Trade Mohammad 
Safadi (March 14), former Prime Minister Najib Mikati 
(Independent), and former PM Omar Karame (pro-opposition), to 
strike a deal.  The results from Tripoli will be an important 
litmus test of Hariri's effectiveness to reconcile the Sunni 
factions there. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Another factor will be the relative calm in 
Tripoli's Jabel Mohssen and Bab el-Tabbaneh areas, where 
several clashes occurred between the Sunni and Alawite 
communities in the past year.  In addition, worrisome rumors 
abound in Tripoli that "someone" is providing weapons to 
members of the community in exchange for votes and to incite 
violence.  Often, the opposition encourages these rumors in 
an effort to discredit March 14, and Hariri, in particular, 
but the other Tripoli leaders also have been named. 
SISON