R 221546Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1826

UNCLAS BAGHDAD 000462 
 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL ASEC IZ
SUBJECT: This is a Baghdad PRT reporting cable 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Baghdad Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) 
forecasts the emergence in the next Provincial Council (PC) of a 
strong "Nationalist" coalition, which includes PM Maliki's Da'wa 
party, and a weaker, though significant, "Regionalist" coalition, 
which includes the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) party. 
Previously underrepresented Sadrists and Sunnis likely also will 
find themselves with more places at the table.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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A New Look for the Baghdad Provincial Council 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) ISCI dominated the last PC, while the Da'wa presence was 
much smaller.  Preliminary analysis indicates a reversal of the PC's 
political landscape.  Given Da'wa's large plurality and control of 
federal government offices in Baghdad, the next PC Chairman and 
Governor likely will be prominent Da'wa members.  (Note: This 
assessment is driven purely by national party ideology or past 
performance and ignores potential provincial negotiations.  End 
note.) 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Sadrists and Sunnis were represented on the previous PC in 
token only (less than one percent of the 2005-elected PC).  These 
nationalist communities will have significant blocs in the new PC, 
with the Sadrists having won nine percent and the two main Sunni 
blocs, Tawafuq and Mutlak's Huwar, at nine percent and seven 
percent, respectively. (The Kurdistani Alliance and Fadhila, 
represented in the 2005-elected PC at four percent and 12 percent, 
respectively, appear to have fallen below the minimum level in the 
2009 PC.) 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
An Opportunity for Change and New Engagement 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Comment:  Maliki's inner circle has leaked his willingness 
to appoint qualified, non-Da'wa technocrats to high administrative 
posts.  If Maliki uses his victory to raise the level of competence 
of local government, the PRT can expect increased requests for 
governance training and mentoring for the new local officials. 
Baghdad PRT and ePRTs also now have an opening to reach different 
communities through their elected leaders (e.g. Sadr City, Salman 
Pak, Mahmoudiya, Tarmiya).  Further, an alliance between the 
dominant Da'wa and the previously ostracized Sadrists could remove 
an obstacle to improving GOI services in Sadr City and provide an 
opportunity to encourage Provincial investment (and focus QRF and 
CERP funding) on dissident neighborhoods. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Forecasted Coalition Compositions 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The Baghdad PC is comprised of 57 total seats. 
 
Regionalists: 
 
--ISCI (3 seats) 
--Tawafuq (7 seats) 
--Allawi (5 seats) 
 
Nationalists: 
 
--Dawa (28 seats) 
--Sadrist (6 seats) 
--Mutlak (7 seats) 
 
 
BUTENIS