VZCZCXRO6470
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0107/01 0500916
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 190916Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2078
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000107 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL EAID ECON CN
SUBJECT:  Former Comoran President Azali Watching, Waiting 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Former Comoran President Azali told Comoros 
Officer February 17 he is concerned about President Sambi's 
"dangerous and unconstitutional" actions.  He believes Sambi cares 
too much about foreign friends (like Iran) and is losing touch with 
the Comoran people; especially Imams who view Sambi's Shi'ism as an 
affront to Comoran Sunni Islam.  Azali said the African Union, 
United Nations, France, and others were naove in their dealings with 
Sambi; he called on the United States to talk bluntly to the 
President about the dangers of his referendum.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) Former President Azali explained to Comoros Officer 
February 17 a litany of offenses by his successor, President Sambi, 
that he said endanger the unity and stability of the Comoros.  By 
naming four of seven judges to the Constitutional Court, Azali said 
Sambi had already co-opted the judicial branch.  Elections have 
still not been held for island assemblies in Anjouan and Moheli; 
Azali fears Sambi will similarly allow the mandates of the National 
Assembly and Grande Comore deputies to lapse, thus freeing himself 
of the checks of a legislative branch.  Even while the National 
Assembly still exists, Azali said, Sambi works around them, as he 
did by promulgating the "economic citizenship law" without -- in his 
view --  proper approval. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Azali emphasized key proposed constitutional revisions 
contained in Sambi's referendum, most notably an extension of his 
term of office one year to 2011.  "How can Mohelians (whose turn is 
in 2010) be expected to react?"  He further noted Sambi would have 
the power to dissolve the National Assembly and reestablish the 
Comoros as "an Islamic state."  Azali said many changes, 
rationalizing the power structures and even diminishing the role of 
island presidents, were reasonable but untenable when the 12-year 
experiment of rotating presidency was in mid-course.  Many Comorans 
have said it, but as the architect, Azali's comment carries weight, 
"the Fomboni and Beit-Salaam agreements and 2001 constitution are 
about unity and reconciliation - Sambi is jeopardizing that." 
 
¶4. (SBU)  While welcoming the role of the international community in 
the Comoros (African Union and United Nations, especially the United 
States, even France), Azali said they were naove in their dealings 
with Sambi.  AU S/E Madeira breezes into town, negotiates 
commitments from everyone to dialogue, then leaves - only for Sambi 
to break his word.  Azali asked that the United States, either in 
private or public, apply more pressure to Sambi or at least 
encourage him to consider the consequences of his actions.  Echoing 
the opposition leaders, Azali accused Sambi of being detached from 
the Comoran reality and alienating a growing number of influential 
Comorans. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Without intentional irony, Azali concluded that "Comorans 
must take matters into their own hands."  He said Sambi's referendum 
contained changes he was not allowed to make, including interrupting 
the rotating presidency.  Azali did not believe Comoran political, 
civic or religious leaders would allow the referendum to take place. 
 Nor, he thought, would they tolerate Sambi's assumption of greater 
power if he did force his referendum through. 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Azali said he has three personal political choices to 
make, as he also already decided to remain in the Comoros since 
leaving office.   One, he could offer advice to the current 
government, but President Sambi, General Salimou, and other leaders 
have never called on him - not even during the Anjouan crisis.  Two, 
he could join the political opposition, but he feels they are 
fragmented and powerless.  His political party colleagues would 
participate, for example, in the expected February 18 meeting, but 
Azali would not appear in person.  The third option is to watch and 
wait.  Azali remains popular as the President who reunited the 
Comoros and the first leader to voluntarily leave power 
 
¶7. (SBU) Note:  Colonel Azali Assoumany took power in a coup d'etat 
in 1999, eventually ending Anjouan's secession and reuniting the 
country.  He negotiated the Fomboni and Beit-Salam agreements, 
passed a new constitution in 2001, and was elected president in 
¶2002.  Respecting the constitution and rotating presidency, he 
handed power to President Sambi in May; 2006, the only peaceful and 
democratic transition in Comoran history.  Azali's government was 
reportedly rife with corruption and several officials were briefly 
imprisoned in 2006.  He founded the University of the Comoros in 
2005 to create opportunity for young Comorans.  Azali was, and 
remains, eager for close ties with the United States, evidenced by 
his cooperation in counterterrorism efforts, including expelling the 
"Al-Haramain" Islamic charity, which was suspected of ties to 
terrorism.  End Note. 
 
COMMENT: 
- - - - - 
 
¶8. (SBU) The February 18 rally, at which opposition, religious, and 
traditional "notables" leaders are expected to stand together to 
denounce Sambi as illegitimate, will be telling in this tense 
 
ANTANANARI 00000107  002 OF 002 
 
 
environment.  The President is out of the country in Marseille 
(where the diaspora reportedly booed him) and Senegal.  AU S/E 
Madeira is due back February 24 to moderate the dialogue February 
27, but unless he has another ace up his sleeve, there are going to 
be a lot of empty seats.  Azali made no suggestion he would step in, 
though he hinted at the risks of returning to power when peoples' 
expectations are higher (citing Ratsiraka's last gQound in 
Madagascar in Q late 1990s). Q there referendum leads toward 
renewed crisis, as the opposition are promising, another option 
would be for Azali to change his stance.  END COMMENT. 
 
MARQUARDT