VZCZCXRO3714
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0102/01 0480451
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 170451Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2068
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000102 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL EAID ECON CN
SUBJECT: Comoran Dialogue Finished Before It Begins (Again) 
 
REF:  A) 08 ANTAN 821 
   B) 08 ANTAN 683 
  C) 08 ANTAN 620 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  African Union Special Envoy Madeira obtained 
agreement early this month from all Comoran stakeholders to convene 
an Inter-Comoran Dialogue February 27 to March 4.  A few days later, 
President Sambi announced a date for his constitutional referendum 
(March 22), at which point all the opposition leaders backed out of 
the Dialogue.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) AU S/E Madeira appeared to have scored a major mediation 
victory earlier this month when he obtained agreement from Comoran 
President Sambi, the island presidents, and other stakeholders to 
hold a long-awaited "Inter-Comoran Dialogue" (REF C) February 27 to 
March 4 to discuss the constitution, institutions, and governance 
(the modalities are outlined below in para 7).  The United Nations 
and La Francophonie were buying plane tickets for their mediators to 
come help the AU team. 
 
¶3. (SBU) A few days later, President Sambi announced his 
(controversial) constitutional referendum would be held March 22 
(REFS A AND B); and signed a procedurally questionable decree to 
organize the vote before departing on his latest overseas trip.  The 
political opposition - Grande Comore Island President Abdouwahabi, 
National Assembly President Bounou, Mayor's Association President 
Mchamgama, former Foreign Minister Maecha - told Comoros Officer 
February 16 that now they will boycott the Dialogue.  A 
representative of Moheli's island president Ali Said (the island 
next up for the rotating presidency in 2010) agreed, noting that 
Sambi's referendum includes a proposed extension of his term by one 
year to 2011, which would delay Moheli's turn. 
 
¶4. (SBU) By setting the March 22 referendum date, opposition leaders 
believe, President Sambi has made clear the Dialogue would serve no 
purpose.  They also note the President's insistence that he will 
have "the last word" and conclude the Dialogue's recommendations 
would not be binding or respected.  They said Sambi's referendum 
threatens national unity and stability by prolonging his mandate in 
office and denying Moheli its turn in the rotation. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The same opposition leaders went further to argue many of 
Sambi's revisions are unconstitutional, his leadership of the 
country is dangerous, and that he is illegitimate.  Among the 
proposed revisions, they said, includes language calling for 
imprisonment for actions or statements in favor of secession.  They 
believe Sambi would use this "vague" provision to silence all 
opponents.  Island president Abdouwahabi again criticized Sambi for 
his "illegal" promulgation of the economic citizenship law.  The 
"pro-Sambi" Anjouanese president Toybou recently criticized Sambi 
publicly, saying "the 400,000 euros spent on the referendum is 
wasted when poor Anjouanese still suffer." 
 
¶6. (SBU) Mchamgama, Maecha, and supporters told Comoros Officer they 
would actively block the constitutional referendum from taking 
place.  While Sambi has the right to revise the constitution, they 
said, he cannot ignore procedure, extend his mandate, diminish 
island autonomy, and consolidate "dictatorial powers."  They believe 
Sambi will use the military to organize the election.  In response 
to Comoros Officer's question, they acknowledged the possibility of 
violence, adding, "we will not be intimidated." 
 
Dialogue Format 
- - - - - - - - 
 
¶7. (U)  Were it to happen, which now seems unlikely unless Sambi 
agrees to postpone the referendum, the modalities of the February 27 
to March 4 Inter-Comoran Dialogue were agreed as follows: 
 
--  Discuss and recommend solutions for problems of institutions, 
governance, and the constitution; 
 
--  Include representatives of:  the Union (4), Grande Comore (3), 
Anjouan (3), Moheli (3), pro-Sambi politicians (9), opposition 
politicians (9), NGOs (6; two per island), unions (3; one per 
island), private sector (3; one per island), Imams (6; two per 
island), and traditional leaders "notables" (6; two per island); 
 
--  The African Union, United Nations, and La Francophonie would 
participate as facilitators; 
 
--  President Sambi would name a Dialogue Chairman, supported by 
five Vice-Chairs representing the Union, three islands, and National 
Assembly, who would organize commissions on topics, manage the 
agenda, and summarize recommendations. 
 
COMMENT: 
- - - - - 
 
¶8. (SBU) While disappointing, most of this would seem to be a new 
 
ANTANANARI 00000102  002 OF 002 
 
 
verse of the same old song.  However, Sambi may be overreaching. 
While most opposition leaders are stubborn and prone to 
exaggeration, Mchamgama is serious and reasonable - he works with 
Mayors because communities actually improve Comorans' lives while 
their Union and island fail them.  He gravely assured Comoros 
officer that Sambi's actions were "dangerous for the country." 
Mchamgama also suggested ominously that his opposition colleagues 
may take inspiration from the ongoing crisis in Madagascar.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
MARQUARDT