VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0174/01 0480945
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 170945Z FEB 09
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0917
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8921
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0370

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000174 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS, OBAMA'S 
FOREIGN RELATIONS 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their 
February 14-17 news coverage on the possibility of signing a 
Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement between the two sides 
of the Taiwan Strait, on the Taiwan government's efforts to fight 
the island's mounting unemployment rate, and on the ongoing probe 
into former President Chen Shui-bian and his family's legal cases. 
Almost all Chinese-language and English-language papers reported on 
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's speech delivered at the 
Asia Society Friday, and on the remarks by U.S. Deputy Secretary of 
State James Steinberg and National Intelligence Director Dennis 
Blair, respectively, Thursday on the developments of cross-Strait 
relations.  The pro-unification "United Daily News" front-paged a 
banner headline Saturday reading "U.S. Intelligence Director Blair 
'Applauds Both Sides of the [Taiwan] Strait,'" while the 
pro-independence "Liberty Times" ran a banner headline on page four 
Saturday reading "U.S. National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair: 
the United States Needs to Assist Taiwan in Maintaining 
[Cross-Strait] Military Balance." 
 
¶2. Several editorials and commentaries over the weekend discussed 
the U.S.-China-Taiwan relations in the light of the remarks made by 
National Intelligence Director Blair and Deputy Secretary Steinberg 
on cross-Strait relations.  A "United Daily News" analysis singled 
out Blair's statement that Taiwan's "long-term security lies in some 
sort of agreement with China" and posed the question regarding if 
this is the 'real story' for both sides of the Strait that has yet 
to be polished by the Obama Administration.  An editorial in the 
conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post," 
however, called on Blair that "it's time to let the two sides deal 
with their differences peacefully."  An editorial in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" said the "support 
for Taiwan has been expressed by the head of the U.S. intelligence 
apparatus rather than by a president speaking off the cuff and 
apparently without institutional backup - as Bush did in his first 
term - bodes well for Taiwan's immediate future."  A separate 
"Taipei Times" op-ed piece, written by an Australia-based freelance 
writer, discussed the overall U.S.-China relations and concluded by 
saying that "U.S.-China relations are not likely to have an easy 
ride under the Obama administration."  An editorial in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News," on the other hand, 
discussed Secretary Clinton's trip to Asia and urged her to reaffirm 
the statement made by former President Bill Clinton in February 2000 
that "issues between Beijing and Taiwan must be resolved peacefully 
and with the assent of the people of Taiwan."  With regard to the 
Obama Administration's foreign policy, a column in the centrist, 
KMT-leaning "China Times" said the Obama Administration has yet to 
come up with a new policy toward North Korea.  A separate "China 
Times" op-ed piece, on the other hand, said Israel and Iran are like 
two vicious dogs dragging the United States in different directions. 
 A third "Taipei Times" op-ed piece, written by Hawaii-based 
freelance writer Richard Halloran, said security issues are high on 
Secretary Clinton's Asia agenda."   End summary. 
 
¶3. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
A) "Taiwan's Security Relying on China -- Are These Words Truly 
Meant by the United States?" 
 
Washington correspondent Vincent Chang noted in an analysis in the 
pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (2/14): 
 
"Judging from the February 12 remarks made by two major national 
security team members of the Obama Administration ... on 
cross-Strait issues, one can tell that stability and maintaining the 
status quo continue to dictate the cross-Strait policy direction of 
the new U.S. Administration. ...  Both [U.S. National Intelligence 
Director Dennis] Blair and [U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James] 
Steinberg called recent warming ties between the two sides of the 
Taiwan Strait 'very encouraging,' and Blair further approved of 
recent practices by leaders on both sides of the Taiwan Strait by 
addressing them as 'the most positive development over the past few 
years.'  It is thus evident that the Obama Administration strongly 
supports the way that both sides of the Taiwan Strait are resuming 
dialogue and reaching agreement on resolving issues of real 
substance. 
 
"Yet there were some ambiguous statements in Blair's remarks.  For 
example, when he said that Taiwan's long-term security lies in 'some 
sort of an arrangement' with China, and that it does not lie in 
military defense, he seemed to suggest that Taiwan needs to 'beg' 
for security from China. ...  Perhaps Blair was not very precise 
when he replied [to inquiries] on sensitive cross-Strait issues. 
But could it be that he was simply straightforward and told the 
'real story' that has yet to be polished by the Obama 
Administration?  This is something that deserves careful observation 
by both sides of the Taiwan Strait." 
 
B) "To Maintain Peace, Prepare for Peace" 
 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (2/17): 
 
"'Taiwan has to realize that its long-term security lies in some 
sort of an arrangement with China.  It does not lie in military 
defenses,' Dennis Blair, director of the U.S. National Intelligence 
Agency, said in his answer last week to congressional inquires. ... 
By calling recent warming ties between China and Taiwan 'very 
encouraging' and then saying 'we're going to have to help [Taiwan] 
some more in order to maintain a balance,' Blair seems to be 
swimming upstream.  If President Ma Ying-jeou has already been able 
to defuse tensions and expand economic ties with China in the past 
nine months without using one bullet from the U.S. arms deal, what 
then would be the rationale for a race to arm this island? ... 
Since you've observed that the two sides of the Strait are already 
on the right track, it's time to let the two sides deal with their 
differences peacefully, Mr. Blair." 
 
C) "A 'Status Quo' Boost for Taiwan" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (2/14): 
 
"'Taiwan should not be so defenseless that it feels it has to do 
everything that China says ... China cannot be so overwhelming that 
it can bully Taiwan.'  These words, uttered by US National 
Intelligence Director Admiral Dennis Blair at a US Senate committee 
hearing on Thursday, are intriguing. ...  But by implying that 
Taiwan is at risk of defenselessness and that China seeks 
unmatchable power in the region, Blair - and his hard-nosed 
intelligence apparatus - represents the 'bad cop' of US President 
Barack Obama's fledgling China policy against the 'good cop' of 
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the traditionally more 
congenial State Department.  Blair's immediate support for closing 
the growing gap in cross-Strait military capability and his 
identification of Chinese military strategy as an ongoing and 
unequivocal 'threat' to Taiwan is a very welcome tonic after years 
of obfuscation and scapegoating under former president George W. 
Bush.  Blair's statement can only irritate China, though it is 
likely that Beijing will hold its collective tongue until its 
officials meet Clinton on Chinese soil next week.  Blair's comments 
also offer a degree of relief to the Taiwanese military and 
opposition politicians who fear that cross-Strait detente would 
jeopardize military ties with the US and hurt future arms sales. 
... 
 
"Some people in the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) - those who 
negotiate with China, in particular - will be greatly irritated at 
Blair's unequivocal assessment of Chinese intentions and 
capabilities.  But for most, Washington's regrouping on cross-strait 
military matters will provide a boost in confidence.  The 'status 
quo' that so many people place faith in was looking quite ragged 
there for a while. Now, with election season over and Washington 
looking to fortify policy over the next four years, this strange 
slogan has had some life breathed into it at a time of considerable 
symbolic value.  That support for Taiwan has been expressed by the 
head of the US intelligence apparatus rather than by a president 
speaking off the cuff and apparently without institutional backup - 
as Bush did in his first term - bodes well for Taiwan's immediate 
future." 
 
D) "China Uneasy with New US Regime" 
 
Sushil Seth, a freelance writer based in Australia, opined in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] (2/15): 
 
"... However much China might want to deflect the issue of currency 
valuation and use the buying of US debt instruments as a pressure 
tactic, the issue will not go away.  Its undervalued currency, 
causing trade distortion and imbalance to US disadvantage, will thus 
be a thorn in US-China relations under the Obama administration. ... 
 As China specialist Kenneth Lieberthal has said: 'The Chinese are 
probably one of the few people in the world who were sorry to see 
President Bush go, and are nervous about his successor.'  They are 
also 'uneasy about [US Secretary of State] Hillary Clinton. She has, 
in their assessment, not been a friend of China.'  And they might as 
well be, as Clinton is seeking to broaden the agenda of US-China 
relations beyond the economy.  She has said that the US needed 'a 
more comprehensive approach.'  In her view, the strategic dialogue 
of the Bush administration 'turned into an economic dialogue,' with 
China benefitting from it. 
 
"Clinton didn't specify the issues that might feature in her 
strategic dialogue. But in any list, Taiwan and Tibet will feature 
prominently where China would like to buy US silence/support. And 
that will remain a problem.  Looking at it, US-China relations are 
 
not likely to have an easy ride under the Obama administration. Both 
sides, though, will be keen not to let things get out of control, 
especially in the midst of an ongoing global economic crisis." 
 
E) "Why Hillary's Trip Matters to Taiwan" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 
20,000] editorialized (2/16): 
 
"... Clinton's decision to make her first overseas visit to Japan, 
Indonesia, South Korea and the People's Republic of China is clearly 
aimed to explain Obama's priorities and respond to Asian worries 
that regional needs will be neglected due to the preoccupation of 
the new Democratic government with the festering legacy of the war 
against Iraq and simmering crises in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran 
left by the preceding neoconservative administration of ex-president 
George W. Bush. ...  Her choice of Japan as her first stop may aim 
to smooth feathers ruffled during the Democratic primary campaign 
when she highlighted the importance of the U.S.-China relationship, 
while her stop in Jakarta will highlight the importance placed by 
Obama, who spent much of his childhood in Indonesia, on links with 
Southeast Asia.  Clinton's last stop in Beijing will unveil the 
Obama administration's concept of 'strategic stakeholder' to guide 
its relations with the PRC and its focus on frank dialogue with 
Beijing on pressing issues such as climate change, currency policy 
and human rights, including the question of Chinese persecution of 
religious freedom in Tibet. 
 
"The intention of the Obama administration to introduce a new 
approach to the PRC merits closer attention from Taiwan, especially 
since the new concept is likely to boost the intensity and expand 
the scope of dialogue between Washington and Beijing. ...  Beneath 
the current surface calm lie currents of uncertain possibilities for 
diverse or even conflicting lines of authority involving the 
departments of State, Defense and Treasury, the NSC and even the 
office of Vice President Joseph Biden, but ultimately Obama himself 
will have the final say. ... 
 
"The transformation of the cross-strait relationship into an 
asymmetric game heavily weighted in the PRC's favor has finally 
sparked concern in the U.S. defense community, as shown by Director 
of National Intelligence Dennis Blair who said last week that 
Washington will continue to supply necessary and defensive-oriented 
arms sales to Taiwan in line with the Taiwan Relations Act to 
"balance" Beijing's military buildup.  Nevertheless, Clinton's call 
for the restoration of U.S.-PRC military exchanges suspended by 
Beijing after Bush sent a bill authorizing arms sales to Taiwan to 
the Congress last October is a worrisome sign that the Obama 
administration may follow in Bush's neo-conservative footsteps. 
 
"During the current 'window,' the KMT government and the opposition 
Democratic Progressive Party should intensify efforts to engage in 
dialogue with the State Department, other Cabinet level agencies and 
associated think tanks to encourage closer examination of the 
underlying problems in the recent cross-strait developments and urge 
the Obama administration to forge a balanced policy toward Taiwan 
that rejects Bush's 'false choice' between short-term expediency and 
America's democratic ideals by reaffirming Washington's commitments 
to Taiwan's security, democracy and rightful international space. 
We also strongly urge Secretary of State Clinton to reaffirm the 
statement made on Feb. 24, 2000 by former president Bill Clinton 
that the U.S. should 'make absolutely clear that the issues between 
Beijing and Taiwan must be resolved peacefully and with the assent 
of the people of Taiwan.'" 
 
¶4. Obama's Foreign Policy 
 
A) "Obama Has Yet to Come up with a New Policy toward North Korea" 
 
The "International Lookout" column in the centrist, KMT-leaning 
"China Times" [circulation: 150,000] wrote (2/15): 
 
"... South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has totally handed over 
his North Korean policy to Washington.  How is the United States 
going to respond?  Judging from the current situation, it appears 
that [U.S. President Barack] Obama has yet to come up with any new 
ideas.  If Obama were to repudiate the [former] Bush 
Administration's policy toward the Korean Peninsula, he will have to 
have a substitute policy.  Outgoing U.S. chief negotiator to the 
'Six-Party Talks' Christopher Hill indicated that there will be a 
change in [Washington's] policy, but no one knows how it is going to 
change.  Newly sworn-in Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the 
Six-Party Talks will remain a resolution, except that the United 
States will have to put on a tougher hat [Ed. Note: take a tougher 
negotiating stance].  It seems that she has not put full 
consideration as to whether the [new] hat will be tough enough to 
intimidate Pyongyang. ..." 
 
B) "Obama Being Dragged around by Israel and Iran" 
 
Deputy Editor-in-Chief Kuo Chen-lung wrote in the "International 
Column" of the centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" [circulation: 
150,000] (2/17): 
 
"Israel and Iran are like two vicious dogs, which are not only 
dragging the U.S. foreign policy in different directions but are 
growling at and fighting with each other, giving the Obama 
Administration a headache. ...  The Obama Administration is now 
evaluating its Iran policy, but it appears that Washington is 
[trying to] resolve Iran's nuclear problem by following the same 
pattern of the Six-Party Talks.  Six nations -- the United States, 
Russia, China, France, United Kingdom and Germany -- met in Berlin 
in early February and negotiated their strategies.  Not only did 
Obama want to [take advantage of such an opportunity to] pull back 
the two vicious dogs, but he also hoped to resolve the core problem 
in the Middle East -- Israeli-Palestinian problem -- at one stroke. 
...  [The realization of] such a distant but beautiful dream must be 
built on direct contact and negotiations between the United States 
and Iran.  But will Iran try to postpone [the talks] in order to 
strive for more time to develop nuclear weapons? ..." 
 
C) "Security Issues High on Clinton's Asia Agenda" 
 
Richard Halloran, a freelance writer based in Hawaii, opined in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] (2/15): 
 
"US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton embarks on her first trip to 
Asia today, with security issues high on the agenda. The public will 
be treated to lots of pretty diplomatic words as she confers with 
Chinese, Japanese, Indonesian and South Korean leaders. Those suave 
utterances, however, will mask stark underlying realities that 
affect the security posture of the US in Asia. ...  Clinton has 
indicated she plans to take a firm line with the Chinese. ...  Not 
on Clinton's itinerary is North Korea, but it will be lurking in the 
background. It has become clear that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il 
has no intention of giving up nuclear weapons. Moreover, he may 
order the test of another ballistic missile soon. And he has renewed 
his belligerence toward South Korea.  Indonesia, the world's most 
populous Muslim nation, may turn out to be the brightest stop on 
Clinton's journey. ..." 
 
YOUNG