VZCZCXYZ0003
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0111/01 0340802
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 030802Z FEB 09
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0825
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8902
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0354

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000111 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused February 3 
news coverage on the island's sagging economy and the Taiwan 
government's efforts to fight the soaring unemployment rate, and on 
the ongoing probe into former President Chen Shui-bian's legal 
cases.  In terms of editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the 
pro-independence "Liberty Times" criticized the Ma Ying-jeou 
administration for having only focused on easing cross-Strait 
tensions while doing nothing to enhance Taiwan's relations with the 
United States.  An editorial in the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" discussed possible developments in 
U.S.-China relations and concluded that "[T]he coming year will be a 
true test of leadership for Obama."  A "Taipei Times" op-ed piece 
discussed the inauguration of U.S. President Barack Obama and said 
if Obama sticks to what he said about America being a friend to any 
nation and anyone who seeks a future of peace and dignity, "he 
should strongly endorse Taiwan's desire to determine its own 
future."  End summary. 
 
A) "Staying Realistic and Disregarding Spurious Achievements Will Be 
the Key to Success of the Ma Administration" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 700,000] 
editorialized (2/3): 
 
"... Having added plenty of weight to the Chinese side of the scale, 
has the Ma Ying-jeou administration, since Obama took office, paid 
equal and corresponding efforts to balance the U.S. side of the 
scale in an attempt to establish and ensure sufficient trust and 
cooperation between Taipei and Washington?  [Does the Ma 
administration] regard its continuous practice of the so-called 
diplomatic truce and its passivity [as bettering U.S.-Taiwan 
relations]? 
 
"In contrast to [the decision made by] a majority of the Taiwan 
people in 2008 to 'give Ma a chance to try,' the Ma administration 
will be facing a more severe situation this year if it seeks to play 
the China card and disguise it as its administrative performance, 
when plenty of evidence has shown that China has not changed and 
offered anything [to Taiwan] at all.  In other words, voices coolly 
demanding that Ma be realistic and disregard all those sham 
achievements will certainly be mounting with irresistible momentum 
[in 2009].  Whether the government leaders will respond to public 
opinion and humbly examine their practices will be the key to 
determining the destiny of our nation." 
 
B) "The Cost of 'Constructive' Ties" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (2/3): 
 
"With North Korea again raising the specter of war in the Korean 
Peninsula, Afghanistan slipping out of control, continued unrest in 
Pakistan, a defiant Iran and a deepening global financial crisis, it 
was not surprising that US President Barack Obama and his Chinese 
counterpart, President Hu Jintao, would strike an amiable tone 
during their first telephone conversation late last week. ...  After 
all, if any of the challenges listed above - to which we might add 
counterterrorism and climate change - are to be resolved, a weakened 
US will need the help of the rising Asian giant. Aside from the 
economy, Afghanistan - a neighbor of China - stands out as a 
principal area where the US may need help, largely as a result of 
the impact of the global financial crisis on contributing NATO 
countries, many of which are nearing the end of their commitments to 
Afghanistan. Despite Beijing's reservations about intervening in the 
internal affairs of states, Washington could very well call upon it 
to lend an unofficial hand. 
 
"Hu, meanwhile, must have been at his charming best during the 
conversation, as Obama's first week in office showed signs - with, 
among others, the announced closure of the Guantanamo Bay detention 
facility and an end to questionable interrogation techniques by the 
CIA - that human rights could be at the forefront of his 
administration's policies. Beijing may also have been uncomfortable 
with US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who last week 
accused the administration of former US president George W. Bush of 
having placed too much emphasis on the economic sphere when dealing 
with Beijing, a hint that the new White House could very well be 
responsive to calls by Congress and rights organizations that 
Washington apply more pressure on China in the realm of human 
rights. 
 
"At this juncture, it is hard to tell which direction Obama will 
choose when it comes to China. It would not be the first time, 
however, for a new administration, fresh with revolutionary zeal, to 
see its ideals flounder on the shores of economic and geopolitical 
realities, which in today's circumstances is, sadly, the likelier 
scenario. The list of challenges is simply too long for an 
administration facing serious unemployment at home and a series of 
commitments abroad to risk alienating an important ally like China. 
 
...  Hu - and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, for that matter - are 
fully aware of Obama's dependence and will strategically apply the 
pressure whenever it suits their needs.  The coming year will be a 
true test of leadership for Obama. But one thing is certain: If 
maintaining smooth relations with China helps repair the ailing US 
economy, create much-needed jobs at home and alleviate the US' heavy 
burdens abroad, chances are that relations between Hu and Obama will 
be no bumpier than they were between Hu and Bush.  Human rights? 
Former US president Bill Clinton's administration put it best - it's 
the economy, stupid." 
 
C) "US Inauguration Inspires, Worries" 
 
Liu Shih-chung, a visiting fellow at the Washington-based Center for 
Northeast Asian Policy Studies of the Brookings Institution, opined 
in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] (2/3): 
 
"... An internally divided Taiwan may not serve as an asset to 
Obama's call for 'a new era of responsibility,' particularly in the 
international arena. Preoccupied with two wars, regional conflicts 
and other daunting challenges, Asian affairs are expected to be 
sidelined as long as a minimum stability is maintained in the early 
months of the new administration. This is where anxiety comes from. 
The temporary detente across the Taiwan Strait no doubt meets US 
interests. The Obama government will encourage the Ma Ying-jeou 
administration to continue its efforts to engage Beijing. Washington 
is therefore expected to favor a policy of 'ambiguity' rather 
'clarity,' or to 'talk and do less' to cross-strait relations unless 
something worrisome comes up. 
 
"The irony is, Taiwan may show self-restraint and shoulder 
responsibility to support Obama's call, but what the county has been 
facing, even under the KMT government, is a regime that relentlessly 
demands a unilateral acceptance of the 'one China' principle as a 
precondition for negotiating with Taiwan's future and its 
international presence. ...  If Obama sticks to what he said, that 
'America is a friend of each nation and every man, woman and child 
who seeks a future of peace and dignity, and that we are ready to 
lead once more,' then he should strongly endorse Taiwan's desire to 
determine its own future." 
 
WANG