VZCZCXRO7684
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDA #0012/01 0510934
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 200934Z FEB 09
FM AMCONSUL ADANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4710
INFO RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1253
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 1053
RUEHKB/AMEMBASSY BAKU 0020
RUEHYE/AMEMBASSY YEREVAN 0015
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0146
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 1315

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADANA 000012 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY:  ADANA'S MAYORAL RACE - PERSONALITY VS. PARTY 
 
ADANA 00000012  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY.  With five weeks before the voting, three 
candidates are in the running for Adana's mayoralty, but 
four-term incumbent Aytac Durak is still the man to beat.  Durak 
is running from MHP (his fourth party affiliation) after being 
publicly dropped from his former perch in AKP.  His most serious 
rival is AKP candidate Mehmet Ali Bilici, who hopes his 
(justifiable) criticism of Durak's tenure and AKP's strong 
organization will prevail.  Cranky CHP leftist Umit Ozgumus' 
only hope is for a close three-way contest in which he gains a 
large number of protest votes.  A Durak win would be bitter 
medicine for AKP, which could have won easily by keeping the 
incumbent in its camp.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Marriage of Convenience Ends in Messy Divorce - and Another 
Loveless Match 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U)  Adana's four-term, septuagenerian mayor Aytac Durak 
sent shock waves through the local political scene in early 
December 2008 with his abrupt resignation from the ruling 
Justice and Development Party (AKP).  Durak, sensing that AKP 
plans to conduct a local caucus to select the most popular 
candidate was a ploy to push him aside, denounced AKP's "affront 
to the people of Adana" as he pointed to results from his own 
polls showing over 70% support for his candidacy.  A hostile 
exchange with the AKP party leadership played out in the papers, 
with Prime Minister Erdogan's parting shot of "Good Luck to you, 
Durak" featured in the headlines and the observation that, back 
in 2004, he and Durak had agreed on one more term, not two. 
Durak never fit in with the AKP's religious conservatives, nor 
did he allow any AKP loyalists on to his team. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Shortly after this rift, Durak joined the Nationalist 
Movement Party (MHP), his fourth party.  Even contacts who 
respect Durak's political acumen believe he may have erred in 
linking himself with the ultra-nationalist MHP, which is 
repellent to many Kurds, Arabs and Alevis, who comprise more 
than half of Adana's population.  One local contact expressed 
surprise Durak chose a "third-tier opposition party," but others 
have said Durak knows exactly what he's doing.  Durak believes 
personal loyalty, cultivated with all Adana's communities, will 
trump party labels - his campaign (buttressed by his media 
holdings) feature billboards of him posing like an esteemed 
uncle at weddings and other ceremonies under clichid slogans 
such as "We are all family."  MHP is never mentioned.  While 
contacts tell us it's "all about the candidate," some Kurds have 
told us, Durak or no Durak, they will never vote for MHP. 
 
AKP Nominates Change Candidate, CHP Opts for Anger 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
----------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Durak's main rival is AKP nominee Mehmet Ali Bilici, 
a 58-year-old businessman and farmer, and three-term 
parliamentarian under the Motherland Party (ANAP).  Bilici lacks 
the charm of Durak, but his gentle style and eloquence make up 
for this deficiency; more importantly, he represents the 
nation's ruling party which has deep pockets and a strong 
organization.  Bilici's campaign has been in full force, with 
billboards, radio spots, and music-pumping vehicles circulating 
around the city.  What will most damage Durak is Bilici's 
criticisms of Durak's failings as a city manager, arguments that 
resonate with many middle-class residents frustrated with 
Adana's unplanned urban sprawl, traffic congestion, air 
pollution, and lack-luster services.  Many in Adana believe 
Durak is partly responsible for Adana's loss of prestige and 
economic clout; though it is Turkey's 5th largest province, 
Adana now ranks 10th in income levels.  Bilici hopes his slogan, 
"Adana needs change" will convince voters that it's time for the 
charming Durak to retire. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  In a political blunder, the leftist Republican 
People's Party (CHP) decided to dump its original candidate, 
40-year-old Soner Cetin, only a week after introducing him with 
great fanfare.  CHP forced Cetin to withdraw, citing the need 
for a higher profile candidate, and nominated Umit Ozgumus, 
president of the Chamber of Industry.  Protests erupted in front 
of CHP party headquarters, and banners accused Ozgumus of buying 
his candidacy while Cetin supporters told the media they would 
not vote for Ozgumus.  One Consulate contact quipped that 
Ozgumus "would pick a fight with anyone, including himself." 
Indeed, Ozgumus regularly publishes diatribes against the EU and 
the U.S. using worn out nationalist/leftist rhetoric; he and the 
Chamber of Commerce president don't speak to each other. 
 
ADANA 00000012  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Despite Ozgumus' negatives, contacts observe that voters fed up 
with Durak and AKP may give their protest ballot to CHP, making 
Ozgumus a potential dark horse. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  COMMENT.   We are told the latest polls conducted by 
AKP show Durak leads by 11 points, though everyone cautions that 
a lot can change in the remaining five weeks.  Although this 
election is "provincial" (in many respects), a Durak victory 
would have national significance as it would deal AKP a loss in 
a region where it has shown steady growth since 2002.  Moreover, 
it would constitute a personal setback for PM Erdogan, who 
gambled that the AKP brand could defeat the longest-serving 
mayor in Turkey. 
GREEN