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P 071524Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 000005 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV HR
SUBJECT: PARTIES BEGIN PREP-WORK FOR 2009 LOCAL ELECTIONS 
 
REF: ZAGREB 000953 
 
SUMMARY 
------ 
 
¶1. (SBU) While active campaigning for local elections is not 
expected until early Spring, political parties across 
Croatia's political spectrum have begun jockeying for 
position and adjusting party strategies to a new law on local 
elections.  This political maneuvering primarily entails 
announcing candidates, negotiating pre-election partnerships 
for joint tickets, and lobbying Zagreb for cash in the 2009 
budget.  The new system, including for the first time the 
direct election of mayors, will provide citizens more of a 
voice in local governance and may test the strength of the 
current coalition government at the national level.  END 
SUMMARY 
 
New Local Election Process Improves Accountability 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) In late 2007 the Croatian Parliament passed a package 
of legislation providing for direct election of mayors, 
county prefects (zupans), and their deputies.  Previously, 
these officials have been chosen by the elected members of 
the local councils or assemblies.  In addition to the direct 
election of these officials, the new law obligates candidates 
to declare the amounts and sources of their campaign funding, 
and bans contributions from public institutions, state-owned 
companies and foreign entities.  The new system stipulates 
that potential candidates must collect voters' signatures for 
their nominations, ranging from 50 in small municipalities to 
5,000 in the city of Zagreb.  The elections will be held on 
May 17, 2009, but if no party ticket -- mayor and deputies or 
county prefect and deputies -- wins an outright majority of 
votes, then there will be a runoff election between the top 
two party slates two weeks later. 
 
What Local Elections Will Mean for the Political Scene 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) The new law means these elections will require a more 
personal touch from candidates.  Gone are the days when 
parties could run a slate of candidates headed by prominent 
party officials, a prime minister for example, with no 
expectation that head of the party slate would actually 
assume a position in the local government.  Because of this, 
local elections will be less of a referendum on the ruling 
national coalition, but a bigger test of party 
infrastructure.  Additionally, the largest opposition parties 
-- the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Croatian 
People's Party (HNS) -- operating without the burden of 
managing ministries can use some of their most notable 
parliamentarians to run for mayors or county prefects. 
Campaigns can be expected to focus on the economy -- creating 
jobs, raising wages, and attracting investment to localities 
-- even though many aspects of these issues are managed out 
of Zagreb.  Mayors and county prefects that have established 
track records for good management of the economy are likely 
to have an edge, as will candidates who are also members of 
the national parliament (Sabor), which is typically viewed as 
advantage an lobbying for discretionary funds. 
 
HDZ's Coalition Strategy for Local Elections is Critical 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) In general, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) 
hopes to recreate its national coalition at the local level 
by luring local branches of the Croatian Social Liberal Party 
(HSLS) and the Croatian Peasants' Party (HSS) into 
coalitions.  HDZ party officials publicly state that they 
have assurances of forming this coalition in nearly 90 
percent of the municipalities, districts and counties.  The 
smaller two coalition partners, however, have preferred to 
keep their options open in several key races.  This is 
particularly the case for the HSS, which is currently in 
local coalitions with parties other than the HDZ in several 
locales.  This public caginess was re-enforced in a private 
meeting with former HSS General Secretary and current HSS 
member of parliament Stanko Grcic, who noted that despite 
overtures for the HDZ and the personal animosity between HSS 
leader Josip Friscic and SDP leader Zoran Milanovic, local 
branches would be free to make coalitions deals as they saw 
fit.  Grcic noted that the HSS currently has more local 
coalition deals with the SDP than with the HDZ, and argued 
that this was an accurate representation of HSS supporters' 
political feelings towards the two main parties. 
 
SDP Plans to Focus Their Campaigns and Build Upon Past Success 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
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¶5. (SBU) The SDP plans to build upon its strength in urban 
areas, where it already controls the governments of Croatia's 
first and third largest cities, Zagreb and Rijeka, and hopes 
to add control of the second largest, Split.  In the 2005 
local elections, the SDP won a plurality of seats in the 
Split city council, only to be outmaneuvered by the HDZ in 
forming a majority coalition, resulting in an HDZ mayor. 
Arsen Bauk, young SDP parliamentarian and party strategist, 
told PolOff that the SDP has spent considerable time studying 
the pre-election polling, exit polling, and electoral results 
from the last general election, and have devised a more 
targeted campaign strategy for local elections that will 
allow them to focus their spending on districts and counties 
where they can energize their base and sway the outcome. 
Figuring into this strategy will surely be the HDZ's 
inability to deliver on most of its past campaign promises -- 
7 percent GDP growth, 7 percent capital investments, and 
unemployment of 7 percent. 
 
The Big Prizes 
------------ 
 
¶6. (U) Zagreb: The SDP's to Lose: 
Croatia's capital will see the SDP's powerful Milan Bandic 
most likely facing a relatively unknown HDZ candidate, Jasen 
Mesic, and possibly some smaller party candidates.  Bandic, 
with a strong SDP base to cultivate and a city whose fortunes 
have largely risen as Croatia makes steady progress toward 
the EU, will be tough to beat.  His one vulnerability is in 
lingering allegations of corruption and insider dealing 
within the city government.  While many SDP supporters cringe 
at the authoritarian, and at times secretive, manner in which 
Bandic runs the city, Zagreb represents a source of strength 
for the party and showcases the SDP's ability to govern 
successfully.  The HDZ's strategy is to court the HSLS and 
HSS to support the HDZ candidate and cultivate as much 
anti-Bandic spirit as possible. 
 
¶7. (U) Split: The Independent Candidate Could Surprise 
Split may see the most dramatic changes in its governance due 
to the changes in the election law.  The current coalition 
government is a good example of the murkiness that can result 
from the old election system, as it is largely the result of 
back-room business deals.  The SDP and HNS have joined forces 
in Split in backing high ranking SDP member Ranko Ostojic for 
mayor, with SDP and HNS figures in the two deputy slots.  The 
HDZ is rumored to be nominating incumbent Ivan Kuret for 
mayor, but no announcement has been made as the HDZ attempts 
to court other parties to support the ticket.  Complicating 
the picture is the likely candidacy of local business magnate 
Zeljko Kerum, owner of a popular retail and supermarket 
chain, as an independent, as well as a possible run by 
well-known former mayor and ex-HSLS member Nikola Grabic. 
 
Rijeka: Even with Help the HDZ is Unlikely to Prevail 
¶8. (U) The SDP and its local partner the Istrian Democratic 
Party are backing long-time mayor and SDP heavyweight Vojko 
Obersnel for mayor.  Obersnel's candidacy, already strong in 
this social-democratic stronghold, would seem all but assured 
if the local SDP branch can lure in the support of the local 
HSS and HSLS chapters.  The HDZ was rumored to support the 
director of the Rijeka Port Authority, Bojan Hlaca, for 
mayor, but the HDZ has been scrambling at the national level 
to find a way to salvage the prospects for Rijeka's May 3rd 
shipyard.  The shipbuilder lumbers under the cloud of 
potential bankruptcy and closing of its doors by mid-2009, 
which could further sour many Rijeka voters on the HDZ. 
 
Other Notable Municipal Races 
-------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) Osijek: Rightwing Heavyweights Face Off 
Croatian Party of Rights (HSP) leader Anto Djapic announced 
on December 5 that he is seeking his party's backing to run 
for mayor of Osijek, setting the stage for the clash of 
rightist ideologues in the city with Croatia's least 
attractive cast of local politicians.  Leader of the rival 
right-wing party HDSSB Branimir Glavas, currently on trial 
for war crimes, has already announced his candidacy. 
Djapic's HSP has been courting HDZ support by offering to 
back their candidate for county prefect.  Glavas for his part 
is hoping to retain the support of the HSS, which is 
currently in coalition with the HDSSB in the district 
government. 
 
¶10. (U) Varazdin: HSLS Set to Keep the Mayorship; County 
Prefect Up for Grabs 
The HSLS party's national vice president, Ivan Cehok, looks 
poised to win re-election as mayor of Varazdin.  HDZ support 
for Cehok is a key pre-condition to gaining the HSLS's 
support for HDZ candidates in other areas of the country. 
 
ZAGREB 00000005  003 OF 003 
 
 
Coalition combinations will also be critical in determining 
the outcome of the country prefect race.  If the HDZ, HSS, 
and HSLS combine on a joint ticket, past election results 
suggest that they should both control a majority of county 
assembly and win the county prefect race. 
 
¶11. (U) Dubrovnik: Tourist Town Should Remain in HDZ Hands 
In Dubrovnik, the SDP and HNS will also partner together and 
have backed former minister of health and current director of 
the city hospital, HNS member Andro Vlahusic, with the SDP's 
local leader in a deputy-mayor slot.  The two opposition 
parties have been courting the support of the local HSLS 
chapter, which is rumored to be sympathetic to Vlahusic's 
candidacy.  However, some pressure is expected to be brought 
from the Zagreb for the local HSLS branch to reconsider its 
stance.  Two-term HDZ mayor Dubravka Suica sometimes faces 
criticism for her less-than transparent business deals that 
tend to go to associates or other party-friendly figures, and 
is probably facing her toughest election fight to date.  But 
Suica can also campaign on the city's recent economic 
development, as well as her efforts to preserve the city's 
unique cultural identity. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) These local elections will provide another test of 
the strength and resiliency for many of the smaller parties 
in Croatia, which across the political spectrum all suffered 
electoral setbacks to the benefit of the of the two largest 
parties -- the HDZ and the SDP -- in the last general 
election.  The direct election of mayors, prefects and their 
deputies, and the requirement that victors win an absolute 
majority of votes cast, is likely to cement the growing 
dominance of the two major parties in Croatian politics. 
Slowing economic growth and a somber public mood should 
provide the opposition SDP with an opportunity to expand its 
base beyond the major urban centers and into other areas 
where voters may be interested in sending the ruling HDZ a 
message.  But the HDZ may still be able to stem its losses if 
it is able to recruit support from smaller parties.  END 
COMMENT 
BRADTKE