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FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3126

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 000013 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01//09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) When will Lower House be dissolved? In April, July, September? 
Psychological war going on with eye on political realignment 
(Sankei) 
 
(2) Watanabe's possible leaving the party have a minor impact: LDP 
(Nikkei) 
 
(3) Visit to Hiroshima by President Bush considered in 60th postwar 
year (Mainichi) 
 
(4) Japan still locked in Cold War mentality (Mainichi) 
 
(5) Finance Ministry to set up intellectual property protection fund 
for developing countries in cooperation with WCO (Nikkei) 
 
(6) Japan, South Korea joint poll: 51 PERCENT  of Japanese 
respondents feel friendship toward South Korea, compared to 37 
PERCENT  of South Koreans (Mainichi) 
 
(7) TOP HEADLINES 
 
(8) EDITORIALS 
 
(9) Prime Minister's schedule, January 3 (Nikkei) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) When will Lower House be dissolved? In April, July, September? 
Psychological war going on with eye on political realignment 
 
SANKEI (Page 1) (Full) 
January 4, 2009 
 
In the 171st ordinary session of the Diet to be convened on Jan. 5, 
deliberations will focus on the second supplementary budget for 
fiscal 2008 and the fiscal 2009 budget. Prime Minister Aso Taro has 
pledged to make Japan the world's first country to emerge from the 
global recession by implementing after the budgets clear the Diet 
government-drafted fiscal and financial measures totaling 75 
trillion yen in projects. However, Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) 
President Ichiro Ozawa intends to force an early dissolution of the 
House of Representatives, saying: "The public will not be troubled 
if the general election is held in January." As such, the ordinary 
Diet session will be turbulent from the beginning. With an eye on 
Sept. 10, when the terms of the Lower House members expire, the 
question is when Aso will make the decision to dissolve the lower 
chamber for a snap election. 
 
Visiting at Aso's private residence in Kamiyama-cho, Shibuya Ward, 
the LDP's Election Strategy Council Deputy Chairman Yoshihide Suga 
said on the afternoon of Jan. 3: 
 
"In any case, since the Lower House must be dissolved by the end of 
September, let's lock horns with the opposition camp from the 
beginning (of the ordinary session). You must not make any 
concessions." 
 
Aso then nodded his head. Aso relaxed at home during his winter 
vacation. He was quoted as showing strong confidence the budgets 
would pass. 
 
TOKYO 00000013  002 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01//09 
 
 
The government and ruling parties intend to get the second 
supplementary budget through the Lower House in mid-January. Set off 
by this, chances are strong that maneuvering will intensify between 
the ruling and opposition camps. The reason is because there is a 
possibility that the opposition will drag out deliberations on the 
supplementary budget in the House of Councillors in order to prevent 
the prime minister and ministers from attending deliberations on the 
fiscal 2009 budget, which will start in the Lower House. 
 
There is more time left in terms of the Diet schedule, since the 
budgets are naturally enacted 30 days after they are passed by the 
Lower House. In order to enact the bills related to the budgets 
before the end of the current fiscal year, however, it is necessary 
to get the budget-related bills pass through the Lower House by the 
end of January with an eye on Article 59 of the Constitution, which 
allows for a bill to be sent back to the Lower House if rejected by 
the Upper House or if the bill has not been voted on within 60 days 
after being presented to the upper chamber. In addition, in a bid to 
pass the fiscal 2009 budget before the end of fiscal 2008, the Lower 
House must pass the fiscal 2009 budget within February. If the Upper 
House continues deliberations during the daytime, there will be no 
choice for the Lower House but to hold deliberations from the 
evening through midnight. 
 
If the flat-sum cash-payout plan is not implemented, the Aso cabinet 
will suffer a serious blow. If the ruling coalition fails to manage 
the Diet schedule until February as planned, the possibility of the 
Lower House being dissolved in April through talks with the 
opposition may move closer to reality. Under this scenario, Aso 
would promise to dissolve the Lower House in return for quick 
passage of the budget bills by the Upper House. It is questionable 
whether Aso would accept this scenario, since there is a possibility 
that Aso's resignation would become a condition. A strategy of 
holding the budget bills hostage will bring a huge risk to the 
opposition camp, as well. As a result, a war of nerves will continue 
between the ruling and opposition camps. 
 
(2) Watanabe's possible leaving the party have a minor impact: LDP 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
January 5, 2009 
 
Yoshimi Watanabe, former state minister in charge of administrative 
reform, has decided to leave the ruling Liberal Democratic Party 
(LDP) if his call for scrapping the flat-sum cash-payout plan is not 
accepted. Watanabe's decision underscores the extent of the decline 
in Prime Minister Taro Aso's hold over the LDP. Senior LDP members 
predict that Watanabe's leaving would only have a minor impact on 
the party. However, because the ordinary Diet session is about to 
convene, Watanabe's possible resignation from the LDP will likely 
create waves in both the ruling and opposition camps. 
 
Having in mind the possible formation of a new party before the next 
House of Representatives election, Watanabe appears to be intending 
to gather together supporters from both the ruling and opposition 
parties. LDP Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda said in a meeting 
last night of senior ruling coalition members: "Watanabe will be the 
only LDP member leaving." Asked by reporters about his view on 
Watanabe's call for scrapping the flat-sum cash-payment plan, New 
Komeito leader Akihiro Ota said: "It is only natural to implement 
what we have decided. I want him to handle that responsibly." 
 
TOKYO 00000013  003 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01//09 
 
 
At his first press conference of the year, Democratic Party of Japan 
(DPJ) President Ichiro Ozawa refrained from commentating on 
Watanabe's move in detail by saying: "I haven't talked with him 
directly. He is still an LDP lawmaker. I'm not in a position to make 
a comment." 
 
On Dec. 24 last year, Watanabe defiantly voted for a DPJ-backed 
resolution calling for an immediate dissolution of the Lower House. 
Even after he was punished by the LDP, receiving a warning, he has 
continued criticizing the Aso administration. Citing the flat-sum 
benefit plan, totaling 2 trillion yen, which he says has a bad 
reputation among the public, he has indicated that unless revisions 
are made to the government-drafted fiscal 2008 second supplementary 
budget and related bills, he will again defy the Aso government. 
 
(3) Visit to Hiroshima by President Bush considered in 60th postwar 
year 
 
MAINICHI (Page 1) (Almost full) 
January 3, 2009 
 
Takahiro Takino 
 
The U.S. Embassy in Tokyo studied in 2005, the 60th year after the 
end of the war, the possibility of a visit to Hiroshima by President 
George W. Bush, an embassy source revealed. 
 
A U.S. President has never set foot in any atomic-bombed city. There 
has never been any sign of Japan strongly seeking such a visit, 
either. If accomplished, it would have played up the maturity of 
Japan-U.S. relations 60 years after the war and been seen as an 
attempt to overcome an unmentionable taboo. 
 
The intention of having President Bush stop over in Hiroshima before 
or after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum 
scheduled for November 2005 in South Korea's Busan was also to send 
a message to North Korea about its nuclear ambitions. Japan's 
relations with China and South Korea were chilly due to then Prime 
Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine. Given the 
situation, the United States forwent the Hiroshima plan to avoid the 
misunderstanding that it had sided with Japan. 
 
According to an U.S. Embassy source, the United States studied a 
similar plan in 1995, the 50th anniversary of the end of the war. 
The plan did not materialize because a schoolgirl in Okinawa was 
raped by three U.S. Marines in September that year. The 
Smithsonian's National Air and Space Museum planned that year to 
exhibit A bomb-related materials, but that, too, was cancelled due 
to fierce objections from U.S. veterans and Congress. The source 
said: "The problem was that the organizer's approach had been poor. 
There was plenty of possibility for the event to have taken place." 
 
 
Momentum continued even after the milestone years. Lower House 
Speaker Yohei Kono visited the USS Arizona National Memorial in 
Pearl Harbor in late December 2008. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi 
(of the Democratic Party), the third in line for the Presidency 
after the Vice President, also visited the Peace Memorial Park in 
Hiroshima in September. 
 
Further, in response to a question by a Japanese reporter 
 
TOKYO 00000013  004 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01//09 
 
immediately before the Lake Toya Summit last July about the 
possibility of his visiting Hiroshima, President Bush said: 
"Although I have never heard of such, it's an interesting idea." The 
envisaged visit was defined as an opportunity to pay tribute to the 
victims of the atomic bombing rather than to offer an apology for 
the dropping of the atomic bomb. 
 
Momentum to scrap nuclear weapons built in the United States last 
year. The Democratic Party at its national convention in August 
adopted a platform specifying a plan to pursue the ultimate 
abolition of nuclear weapons. President-elect Barack Obama has 
announced that he would appoint Harvard University Prof. John 
Holdren to serve as Assistant to the President for Science and 
Technology, the post that has been vacant over the last eight years. 
He is the person who gave the acceptance speech for the Nobel Peace 
Prize in 1995 on behalf of the Pugwash Conference on Science and 
World Affairs. 
 
On the night of December 18, 2008, at the Imperial Hotel in Tokyo, 
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) President John 
Hamre, a candidate for defense secretary, made this request to 
Japanese ruling and opposition party leaders, including former Prime 
Minister Shinzo Abe and former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike of the 
Liberal Democratic Party and former President Seiji Maehara of the 
Democratic Party of Japan: "The first Strategic Arms Reduction 
Treaty (STARTI) expires in 2009. The year 2009 will be an important 
year for the nuclear issue in view of the fact that the Nuclear 
Nonproliferation Treaty (NTP) will be re-discussed in the following 
year. The United States will conduct broad-based nuclear arms 
reduction talks with Russia. I would like to see Japan's support." 
 
A visit to Hiroshima by President Obama would do much to bring about 
closure to the postwar period. It also would probably be seen as 
symbolic of America's new nuclear policy. 
 
2009 will be the 49th year since the revision of the U.S.-Japan 
Security Treaty (in 1960). For Japan to maintain influence in the 
Six-Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear issue, the key is in 
finding a way to bring the U.S. along. Japan, as the only country 
that suffered atomic bombings, will now be tested. 
 
(4) Japan still locked in Cold War mentality 
 
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Abridged slightly) 
January 3, 2009 
 
Takashi Sudo 
 
Throughout the postwar period, while working to deepen their 
bilateral alliance, Japan and the United States have been avoiding 
facing up to the paradox between the legacy of the atomic bombings 
of Japan and the U.S. nuclear umbrella covering Japan. Although 
Japan has aimed at the abolition of all nuclear weapons, it has 
never pursued the United States' "crime against humanity." 
 
But given the passage of over 60 years after the end of the war, a 
multi-polarized world, and the global trend of nuclear 
nonproliferation, a day may come in the tenure of President Barack 
Obama to turn the unforgotten historical page for a true 
reconciliation between Japan and the United States, with nuclear 
security as the lever. 
 
 
TOKYO 00000013  005 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01//09 
 
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Hiroshima last September, 
and Japan's Lower House Speaker Yohei Kono laid a wreath at Pearl 
Harbor in December. Their acts largely reflect their political 
beliefs. As seen in the release of the Kono Statement that offered 
an apology by acknowledging the Imperial Japanese Army's involvement 
in the forceful recruitment of the so-called "comfort women," Kono 
has special feelings toward Japan's historical events. Pelosi is a 
liberal from San Francisco who attaches importance to human rights. 
 
Although some think that their visits carried little diplomatic 
significance, it is a fact that the events went down in the postwar 
history of Japan-U.S. relations. They have produced a momentum for 
reciprocal visits to those sites by the Japanese prime minister and 
the U.S. President. 
 
In January 2007 and January 2008, the Wall Street Journal ran 
proposals calling for the abolition of nuclear weapons, signed by 
former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and George Shultz and 
other foreign affairs heavyweights. Support has spread among 
scholars, as well. People have begun discussing an argument for 
nuclear abolition as a pragmatic policy approach to stop nuclear 
proliferation. 
 
At the same time, a Cold War mentality is still very much alive 
among Japanese lawmakers. A party-head debate took place in July 
2007 between the heads of the Liberal Democratic Party and the 
Democratic Party of Japan. In the session, DPJ President Ichiro 
Ozawa asked: "Don't you have a plan to ask the United States for an 
apology for dropping the atomic bombs?" Prime Minister Shinzo Abe 
replied: "I don't think it's proper to seek a U.S. apology while our 
country is relying on its nuclear deterrence." 
 
Although he advocated breaking away from the postwar regime, Shinzo 
Abe, as the prime minister of Japan, which is still under the U.S. 
nuclear umbrella, remained locked in a Cold-War mentality of shying 
away from pursuing the United States' "crime" of having dropped 
atomic bombs on Japan. 
 
Despite growing calls for nuclear abolition in the United States, 
there are no visible moves in Japanese political and diplomatic 
circles to go beyond the framework of the Cold War-era nuclear 
strategy. 
 
There is no doubt that a visit to Hiroshima by President Obama would 
give the world an impression that change has come to U.S. nuclear 
policy. Whether the nuclear disarmament trend can help bring about 
reconciliation between Japan and the United States in the postwar 
era depends on the conceptual ability of Japanese diplomacy. 
 
(5) Finance Ministry to set up intellectual property protection fund 
for developing countries in cooperation with WCO 
 
NIKKEI (Page 3) (Full) 
January 4, 2009 
 
The Finance Ministry will help developing countries protect their 
intellectual properties. To that end, it will set up a new fund 
under the World Customs Organization (WCO), an international 
organization of customs houses, to develop the capabilities of 
customs officers of developing countries by using this fund. 
Contributing funds for the purpose of protecting intellectual 
properties at the water's edge is an unusual step. The Finance 
 
TOKYO 00000013  006 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01//09 
 
Ministry will seek cooperation from other countries, as well. It 
will aim at stopping articles that violate intellectual property 
rights from being exported by tightening restrictions at customs 
houses in emerging and developing countries. 
 
The WCO is a Brussels-based international organization of customs 
houses with a membership of about 170 countries. The Finance 
Minister will establish possibly before the end of the month a fund 
specified for protecting intellectual properties as part of the 
WCO's customs house cooperation fund and disburse approximately 200 
million yen. It will continue to provide funds in fiscal 2009 and 
beyond. It will call on the U.S. and European countries to also 
contribute funds. 
 
Kunio Mikuriya, a former Finance Ministry official, on January 1, 
2009 took office as secretary general of the WCO. He is the first 
Japanese WCO secretary general. The Finance Ministry wants to 
support the new Mikuriya setup with financial contributions. 
 
The fund will be used for the training of customs officers of 
developing countries who inspect goods being imported or exported. 
To be precise, the Finance Ministry plans to dispatch WCO officials 
and customs officers of industrialized countries, such as Japan, to 
developing countries to teach local customs officers the features 
and kinds of fake brand-name goods and products carrying fake names 
of manufactures, and how to crack down on trade in such goods. The 
WCO will conduct a fact-finding survey to determine the level of 
customs officials and the situation of the violation of intellectual 
properties in about 10 developing countries a year so as to 
determine the capabilities of customs houses of those countries. 
 
Goods that violate intellectual property rights, such as China-made 
motorbikes carrying the trademarks of Japanese makers, are being 
traded among emerging and developing countries, causing much damage. 
There has also been a report of a case in which medicines pretending 
to be a magic bullet for AIDS were exported to Africa and Latin 
America where the patients administered those medicines died. The 
perception that it is necessary to protect intellectual properties 
at the water's edge is spreading in emerging and developing 
countries, as well. 
 
(6) Japan, South Korea joint poll: 51 PERCENT  of Japanese 
respondents feel friendship toward South Korea, compared to 37 
PERCENT  of South Koreans 
 
MAINICHI (Page 1) (Full) 
January 4, 2009 
 
Mainichi Shimbun and Chonsun Ilbo, a newspaper published in Seoul, 
carried out a joint poll last December. Asked whether they felt 
friendship toward the other country, Japanese with such feelings 
toward South Korea totaled 51 PERCENT , adding those who felt great 
friendship and those feeling somewhat friendly. In contrast, 37 
PERCENT  of South Koreans felt friendship toward Japan, indicating 
that more Japanese felt friendly toward that country in Japan than 
did South Koreans toward Japan. 
 
This is the fifth time for the joint survey, which was launched in 
¶1995. Mainichi Shimbun conducted it on December 6 and 7, while the 
Chonsun Ilbo made its survey on the 20th and the 21st. The responses 
totaled 1031 and 1052 responses, respectively. 
 
 
TOKYO 00000013  007 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01//09 
 
The previous poll in July 2002, right after the joint hosting of the 
2002 Soccer World Cup, produced the highest rates of friendship 
between the two countries: 77 PERCENT  for Japan and 42 PERCENT  for 
South Korea.  The rate having dropped 26 points since that peak year 
has now returned to the level of the 1999 poll, when it had reached 
48 PERCENT . 
 
In the South Korea poll, those feeling no friendship toward Japan 
stood at 62 PERCENT . However, for young persons between 19 and 29, 
those with friendly feelings toward Japan reached 49 PERCENT , 
probably reflecting the popularity of Japanese pop music and anime 
cartoons. Fifty one percent of that age bracket felt no friendship 
toward Japan. There are marked differences in views toward Japan 
depending on the age bracket. On the question of North Korea's 
nuclear weapons program, 46 PERCENT  of the Japanese thought 
pressure on that country should be increased, while 39 PERCENT 
wanted priority given to dialogue. In South Korea, 75 PERCENT  gave 
priority to dialogue, three times the 23 PERCENT  who thought 
pressure should be increased. 
 
(7) TOP HEADLINES 
 
Asahi, Mainichi, Yomiuri, Sankei &Tokyo Shimbun: 
Israel begins ground attack on Gaza 
 
Nikkei: 
Government eyeing patent law revisions to include software 
 
Akahata: 
Food, clothing and housing, as well as jobs must be secured 
 
(8) EDITORIALS 
 
Asahi: 
(1) Lower House election should be conducted quickly 
(2) Alcoholics on increase among the elderly 
 
Mainichi: 
(1) Global economic recession: Cooperation is the prescription for 
recovery, create joint projects in East Asia 
 
Yomiuri: 
(1) Fundamental change needed to lift economy 
 
Nikkei: 
(1) Make the environment, energy leading players in bringing about 
economic recovery 
 
Sankei: 
(1) Good opportunity for constitutional review 
(2) Why should Tokyo host Olympics? 
 
Tokyo Shimbun: 
(1) Thoughts at beginning of the year: Obama's era and the East 
European revolution of 1989 
 
Akahata: 
(1) Crisis of Japan-U.S. alliance: In order to carry out 
international contribution, Japan-U.S. Security Treaty should be 
abolished 
 
(9) Prime Minister's schedule, January 3 
 
TOKYO 00000013  008 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01//09 
 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
January 4, 2009 
 
11:00 Had a walk around his private residence in Kamiyamacho. 
15:49 Met LDP Election Strategy Council Vice Chairman Makoto Suga at 
his private residence, joined in by Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura 
and his wife. Kawamura stayed on. 
17:30 Placed a telephone call to Palestinian leader Abbas in the 
presence of Kawamura, Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi, and 
Foreign Ministry Middle Eastern and African Affairs Bureau 
Director-General Suzuki. Kawamura stayed on. 
 
Prime Minister's schedule, January 4 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
January 5, 2009 
 
09:09 
Met at the Kantei Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsumoto, joined 
in by LDP presidential special assistant Shimamura. 
 
10:00 
Held a New Year press conference. Afterward met Chief Cabinet 
Secretary Kawamura. 
 
11:10 
Departed from JR Tokyo Station on Nozomi No. 23, accompanied by MAFF 
Minister Ishiba, Administrative Reform Minister Amari, Deputy Chief 
Cabinet Secretaries Matsumoto and Konoike. 
 
12:51 
Arrived at JR Nagoya Station, received by LDP Aichi chapter chairman 
Omura. 
 
12:57 
Met Aichi Gov. Kanda and others in the Kintetsu VIP room. 
 
13:10 
Departed from the station on a Kintetsu express. 
 
14:33 
Arrived at Kintetsu Ujiyamada St., received by Mie Gov. Noro and 
others. 
 
14:40 
Arrived at Ise Shrine. Paid homage at Outer Shrine. 
 
15:08 
Paid homage at Inner Shrine. 
 
15:46 
Received bouquets in front of Shrine Office from the Boy Scout 
Association of Japan Ise 7th Group and the Girl Scout Association of 
Japan Mie 1st Group. 
 
16:24 
Departed from Kintetsu Ujiyamada St. on a Kintetsu express. 
 
17:42 
Arrived at Kintetsu Nagoya St. 
 
 
TOKYO 00000013  009 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01//09 
 
17:45 
Met JR Tokai Chairman Kasai and others in the JR Nagoya Station VIP 
room. 
 
18:14 
Departed from the station on Nozomi No. 140. 
 
19:56 
Arrived at JR Tokyo St. 
 
20:15 
Dined at a Hotel Okura Japanese restaurant with LDP Secretary 
General Hosoda, Policy Research Council Chairman Hori, Diet Affairs 
Committee Chairman Oshima, New Komeito Representative Ota, Secretary 
General Kitagawa, in the presence of Chief Cabinet Secretary 
Kawamura. 
 
21:10 
Returned to his private residence in Kamiyamacho. 
 
SCHIEFFER