VZCZCXRO5832
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHTV #0099/01 0131644
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131644Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0014
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000099 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PTER IS KPAL KWBG PINR
SUBJECT: LEFT-WING GENERALS ON GAZA SITUATION 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Retired IDF General Daniel Rothschild, President 
of the Council for Peace and Security, briefed the diplomatic corps 
on January 12 at Peace Now on the background and future of the Gaza 
operation.  Rothschild believes that Operation Cast Lead has 
achieved deterrence, and Israel is ready for a ceasefire.  The two 
biggest obstacles, he explained, are the Hamas leadership in 
Damascus (Hamas-Damascus) and the Egyptians; Hamas-Damascus because 
it does not feel the same pressure as Hamas in Gaza, and Egypt 
because it is not pushing Hamas enough for fear of appearing to be 
Israeli collaborators.  Looking to the future, Rothschild believes 
that in six months either Iran will increase its influence in Gaza, 
or there will be anarchy fueled by armed gangs.  In a separate 
conversation on January 12, retired General Amnon Lipkin-Shahak told 
the Embassy that Israel will continue to fight until Hamas accepts 
an unlimited  ceasefire, and will not leave troops in Gaza after the 
ceasefire.  Both Lipkin-Shahak and Rothschild are highly respected 
former IDF generals now associated with the left, and while neither 
hold a government position, both remain influential thinkers. End 
SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Damascus Preventing a Ceasefire; Egypt Could Do More 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Rothschild told the diplomatic corps based in Israel that 
he believes Israel has achieved a significant deterrent and could 
end Operation Cast Lead, although he admitted some in the government 
seem to disagree.  At the strt of the operation, Rothschild 
explained that Haas had 18,000 security forces, but 14,000 were 
plice forces focused on repressing the population, eaving only 
4,000 hard-core militants.  He also aid that while Hamas started 
the war with thousads of Qassams, it only had about 150 long-range 
Cinese-made Grad rockets (Note: IDF reports Hamas hs fired 
approximately 90 Grad rockets since the beginning of the conflict). 
Hamas has now suffered considerable losses among their hard-core 
militants and their weapons stocks. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Rothschild said that while the Hamas leadership in Gaza is 
ready to agree to a ceasefire to survive, Damascus-based Hamas 
leader Khaled Mesha'al is willing to fight until "every last Hamas 
member in Gaza is dead."  In addition, he said, Iran is pressing 
Mesha'al to reject a ceasefire. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) According to Rothschild, Egypt could also do more to get a 
ceasefire but it has conflicting interests.  While Egypt wants a 
ceasefire, it also would like to see Hamas completely defeated, and 
it must be careful not to seem like an Israeli collaborator. 
Furthermore, Rothschild thinks Egypt is enjoying being the center of 
the negotiations.  Because of these factors, and the internal 
Israeli debate over how far is far enough, he does not believe there 
will be a ceasefire within the next few days. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Hamas Damaged, But Diplomatic Solution Still Needed 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In a separate conversation on January 12, Lipkin-Shahak 
told the Embassy that considerable damage had been done to Hamas and 
its military wing, and the IDF would do considerably more if Hamas 
failed to go to a ceasefire.  However, he cautioned that there is no 
military solution to Hamas in Gaza, and in the end a political 
defeat will be needed.  For that to happen, he said that the PA will 
need finish making itself into a real government, and deal with 
reform and corruption.  He assessed that Hamas had won the 2006 
elections because it was not corrupt. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Lipkin-Shahak explained that Israel needs a comprehensive 
strategy that addresses its security and the situation within the PA 
and in the Gaza Strip as a military and political problem.  He said 
that the failure to make more significant economic progress on the 
West Bank constituted a lost opportunity for Israel to have 
sharpened the differences between the two regimes in the eyes of the 
Palestinians. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Finally, Lipkin-Shahak's assessment was that there is no 
reason for the IDF to remain in Gaza after a ceasefire (with the 
possible exception of the Philadelphi corridor).  It would leave the 
IDF exposed, and would not offer any real advantages.  Israel could 
just as easily observe from the periphery and launch attacks from 
outside Gaza as needed.   He also dismissed talk of carving out 
security zones to prevent rocket launches, saying it didn't much 
matter, given the short distances, where exactly rockets were 
launched.  While holding no official position, Lipkin-Shahak is 
still close to IDF leaders, and said he heard from good sources that 
the IDF does not intend to remain in Gaza after conflict ceases. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Rothschild: Gaza's Future Looks Bleak 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) In his briefing, General Rothschild underlined that Gaza 
will be almost totally destroyed once Israel withdraws.  At that 
 
TEL AVIV 00000099  002 OF 002 
 
 
point, he said a race will start between Western countries and Iran 
to win hearts and minds by rebuilding, just as in Lebanon in 2006. 
Unfortunately, Rothschild said that the West will always lose this 
type of race.  Western governments, with their bureaucracy and -- 
reasonable-- demands for transparency cannot compete with Iran's 
suitcases full of cash. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The other alternative, he said, is that there will be a 
power vacuum created by the fall of Hamas and the armed gangs in 
Gaza will take over, creating anarchy.  Despite this, he also 
underlined that there is absolutely no chance the IDF will remain 
inside Gaza following a ceasefire.  (COMMENT: The "day after" 
comments were directed specifically at Embassy Poloff, and 
Rothschild was likely hoping to influence the USG response following 
the conflict.  END COMMENT.). 
 
--------- 
Bio Notes 
--------- 
 
¶10.  (U) Major General (ret.) Daniel Rothschild was the commander of 
Israeli forces in Lebanon in 1985, and was the head of COGAT from 
1991-1995.  Rothschild participated in the negotiations with 
Palestinians from the preparations for the Madrid Conference to the 
second Camp David talks.  He is currently President of the Council 
for Peace and Security, a non-partisan, left-of-center think tank of 
over 1,000 former security officials. 
 
¶11. (U) Lieutenant General (ret.) Amnon Lipkin-Shahak is a 
highly-decorated commando and former IDF Chief of General Staff 
(1995-1998).  As a co-founder of the now-defunct Center party, he 
served in the Knesset from 1999-2001 as both Minister of Tourism and 
Minister of Transportation (from 2000).  Lipkin-Shahak was also 
active in Palestinian negotiations during the second Camp David 
talks.  He is currently the chairman of El Al Airlines. 
 
CUNNINGHAM