VZCZCXRO1503
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHFL RUEHKUK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV
RUEHSR
DE RUEHSM #0005/01 0071555
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 071555Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4010
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000005 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR IS SW
SUBJECT: SWEDISH OFFICIAL ON IRAN: ELECTIONS, DOMESTIC 
OPPOSITION AND DIALOGUE 
 
REF: 08 STOCKHOLM 857 
 
Classified By: CDA Robert Silverman for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: In an initial call in December on the Swedes 
in their upcoming EU Presidency capacity (reftel), EUR/ERA 
Director Bill Lucas met with the MFA's Iran expert and deputy 
head of the Middle East and North Africa Division, Dag 
Juhlin-Dannfelt.  Dannfelt said: 
 
-- The EU3 has the policy lead, but Foreign Minister Bildt is 
fascinated with Iran; for instance, Bildt recently engaged 
MFA senior staff with non-governmental U.S. and Iranian 
experts to discuss different policy scenarios on Iran; 
 
-- Sweden would continue to take leadership positions on 
human rights in Iran and on the need for Iranian compliance 
with the IAEA; 
 
-- Sweden would welcome direct U.S. dialogue with Iran. 
 
End Summary. 
 
EU, Sweden and Iran 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Dannfelt said Iran is high on the foreign policy 
agenda in Stockholm, but acknowledged with irony that Sweden 
plays "second violin" to the "EU3 foreign policy machine." 
While the GOS cannot dictate EU policy towards Iran, it will 
push both for the EU to engage with Iran and Iran to comply 
with UNSCRs.  Normalization of Iran's relations with the EU 
is blocked by the nuclear issue.  As for the Swedes, "we are 
puzzled by Iran" and do not know how to confront the nuclear 
problem, Dannfelt told Lucas.  At Foreign Minister Bildt's 
request, on December 9 the MFA organized a day-long seminar 
on Iran with academics from Iran, the U.S. and Europe for a 
"competence-building" session for the MFA (including Bildt 
and State Secretary Frank Belfrage, the number two) and other 
government agencies.  The Swedes, led by Bildt, want good 
bilateral relations with Iran but the nuclear issue and human 
rights remain "problems."  Sweden has been a leader in 
pushing the human rights issue in international fora, 
Dannfelt observed. 
 
Domestic Iranian Issues and the United States 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Dannfelt said the Swedes would welcome direct dialogue 
between the U.S. and Iran, which would create a "dilemma" for 
a regime that thrives on confrontation with America. 
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is an ideologue who usually 
blames domestic problems on the "external enemy," but he has 
failed to blame his recent shortcomings on the West and his 
popularity has fallen.  Ahmadinejad won on a populist message 
of "more bread and butter", said Dannfeldt, but has "failed 
utterly on its delivery."  Iranians believe the economy has 
not been this bad since the eight year war with Iraq, so he 
would not be surprised if the regime "decided to dump 
Ahmadinejad."  As the election nears, Ahmadinejad will likely 
try to appeal to his "paranoid" populace by claiming the West 
created the "myth" that Iran is developing nuclear weapons in 
order to invade it, as happened with Iraq.  He may also seek 
to reawaken historical animosity against the United Kingdom 
and U.S. for alleged efforts to control Iran's oil fields. 
 
¶4. (C) If Mohammad Khatami were to win the June 2009 
elections and regain the Presidency, there would be a new 
window of opportunity for the international community's 
relations with Iran because he differs so much from 
Ahmadinejad.  Indeed, a broad spectrum of Iranians want 
normalization of relations with the U.S., said Dannfeldt. 
Due to historical events, the Iranians are "very 
conspiratorial in outlook" and "fear hidden agendas," 
although the international awareness of Iranians, including 
at lower levels of society, should not be underestimated. 
Some 40,000 Iranians visit Sweden every year, and roughly 
40,000 of the 100,000 Iranians resident in Sweden travel to 
Iran each year. 
 
Iran's Nuclear Calculus 
----------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Dannfelt said he would be surprised if the regime 
allowed nuclear inspectors prior to elections.  The regime 
has made a strategic decision to acquire at least the 
capability to assemble a nuclear warhead on short notice, if 
not to actually possess a nuclear device.  The leadership is 
probably grateful to the Israelis for bombing Iraq's Osirak 
reactor, assessing that Saddam would have used a nuclear 
warhead against Iran if he had had the capability.  Still, 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000005  002 OF 002 
 
 
criticism of Iran's nuclear program is prevalent among 
patriots and economically-minded citizens who believe that 
the government is spending too much. 
 
Iran on Iraq and Afghanistan 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Dannfelt said it will be impossible to stabilize 
Afghanistan without "some sort of accord" with Iran. 
Tactical cooperation against the Taliban in 2001-2 was a sign 
from the regime that it wanted reconciliation with the U.S., 
Dannfeldt argued, however, by 2004-5 "Ahmadinijad and his 
group" needed confrontation with the West to help them gain 
and hold on to power. "If there is no external enemy to blame 
problems on, then the regime's days are numbered," Dannfelt 
stated, "even though the regime has a much better network 
than the Shah ever had," enabling them to move quickly 
against potential challengers.  As for Iraq, the regime does 
not want to see total chaos there, but it also does not want 
the U.S. to have Iraq available as a "base" from which to 
attack.  "Controlled chaos in Iraq suits the Iranians just 
fine," he claimed. 
 
Israel/Palestine 
---------------- 
 
¶7. (C) The EU has tried to find a balanced compromise on EU 
policy towards Israel and Palestine, but the 27 members have 
difficulties agreeing, said Dannfeldt.  Sweden places 
priority on the peace process and hopes that the new U.S. 
administration will "be involved from the beginning."   The 
EU is not really a player, he added, "though it wants to be 
seen as having clout and influence."  Dannfeldt felt that if 
the Annapolis process had another two to three years it might 
have been a success and therefore President-elect Obama 
should continue the process.  Sweden believes the opening 
between Syria and Israel will "help in the long-run to unlock 
the Israel-Palestine conundrum" and have a positive effect on 
the whole region. 
 
Bio Note 
-------- 
 
¶8. (C) Dannfelt is the MFA's Iran expert, having served there 
twice. He maintains close ties to a wide range of Iranians 
through his Iranian-born wife.  We have noticed that his 
briefings to us are often repeated almost verbatim by his 
superiors in later weeks. 
 
¶9. (U) Mr. Lucas cleared this cable. 
SILVERMAN