VZCZCXRO9277
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHFL RUEHKUK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV
DE RUEHSM #0035/01 0161750
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 161750Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4047
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV IMMEDIATE 1296
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0304

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000035 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR IS SW
SUBJECT: SENIOR POLDIR ON IRAN AND GAZA 
 
REF: A. STOCKHOLM 23 
     ¶B. STOCKHOLM 14 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert J. Silverman for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (S) Summary: Swedish MFA Director-General for Political 
Affairs, Bjorn Lyrvall, told us January 15 that: 
 
-- On Iran, Sweden now backs an "intensified implementation 
of existing UN Security Council resolutions" that will result 
in EU designation of at least "one or two" more banks; 
 
-- It would be "very useful" for the new U.S. administration 
to use some of its political capital to seek a new UN 
Security Council resolution with additional sanctions on 
Iran.  If it is blocked by China and Russia, then the 
international community will have "called their bluff," and 
the possibility of the EU issuing autonomous sanctions 
increases; 
 
-- Sweden sees it as very important to maintain open 
communication with the Iranians so that they "get the 
message."  FM Bildt was "tough" on visiting Iranian DFM 
Safari on human rights and the nuclear program; 
 
-- On Gaza, the big question for Sweden is whether there can 
first be a temporary cease-fire and then a discussion of 
arrangements to make it durable. 
 
End Summary. 
 
Iran: EU Sanctions, Plus Need for a New UN Resolution 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶2. (C) On the topic of Iran, Lyrvall stated that he 
personally understood that "engagement from a position of 
strength" is necessary.  Lyrvall added that he recognized 
that there was a "time factor involved" from the reports he 
was seeing of Iran's low enriched uranium (LEU) production 
rates.  The Iranians will soon reach a "decision point"; if 
they attempt to produce highly enriched uranium (HEU), then 
all doubts would be erased internationally about their 
professed desire for a peaceful nuclear energy program.  In 
any case, he continued, the Iranians would be very attracted 
to the "carrot" of more direct engagement with the United 
States, even while the "3   3" proposal currently on the 
table is very good and must not be put aside. 
 
¶3. (C) As for "sticks," Lyrvall noted that in discussion with 
his EU colleagues, there was general agreement on a first 
step of "intensified implementation of existing UN Security 
Council resolutions."  Promising a more "intensive 
interpretation" of the existing UNSCRs, Lyrvall said the EU 
was poised to adopt a "tougher approach" to Iranian banks and 
entities.  He noted that there remained some hard questions 
over, for example, how many new banks would be designated. 
Lyrvall said his sense was that "some EU states" do not want 
to see a "blanket ban" on Iranian banks; rather, he 
predicted, "one or two more banks" may soon be designated by 
the EU. 
 
¶4. (C) Lyrvall continued that Sweden thought it would be very 
useful if the new U.S. administration were to go quickly to 
the UN and seek a new UNSCR with additional sanctions. 
Lyrvall stated that more would be achieved under a universal, 
international sanctions regime.  When the United States and 
EU sanction autonomously, "China and Russia just move in." 
Moreover, the attempt to pass a new resolution would be 
extremely important for intra-EU cohesion.  If the new 
administration's effort is thwarted by Russia and China, then 
"we have called their bluff," and there will be a "different 
situation within the EU with respect to autonomous sanctions." 
 
Iranian DFM Safari Visit to Sweden 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Lyrvall said he had met with Iranian Deputy Foreign 
Minister for Europe, Mahdi Safari, on January 13th (Ref A). 
Safari had discussed how Iranian trade with Asia had taken 
off during his time as DFM for Asia while trade with the EU 
had plummeted.  Now that he had taken over the Europe 
portfolio, Safari pledged to do for Europe what he did for 
Asian trade, according to Lyrvall.  Safari also stressed how 
Iran and the EU had common interests in dealing with the 
Taliban and in making clear that there was no military 
solution to Afghanistan.  Lyrvall described Safari as "very 
smart, but a carpet trader." 
 
¶6. (C) DCM commented on Safari's January 14 public 
presentation at the Stockholm International Peace Research 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000035  002 OF 002 
 
 
Institute (SIPRI), an MFA-funded think tank, noting that the 
Iranians frequently exploit the publicity they get overseas 
to enhance the legitimacy of the regime internationally and 
at home.  Lyrvall sidestepped, replying that it is very 
important to maintain channels of communication with Iran so 
that they "get the message."  Foreign Minister Carl Bildt was 
"very clear" with Safari in his criticism of Iranian human 
rights violations and his strong disbelief of Iranian claims 
about the nuclear program.  Lyrvall opined that the Iranians 
were getting clear signals from all of their EU 
interlocutors. 
 
Gaza: EU Can Monitor Borders, but Needs Help 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Lyrvall said that he saw an increased readiness from 
Hamas to consider a cease-fire in Gaza.  The question for 
Sweden, he continued, is whether there can first be a 
temporary cease-fire and then a discussion of arrangements to 
make it durable.  When pressed, he said he understood the 
difficulty the Israeli side had with respect to the 
possibility of Hamas re-arming itself during any temporary 
cease-fire.  When reminded about the need for enhanced 
security at the border crossing points, Lyrvall agreed that 
there needed to be a way for the EU to resume its 
border-monitoring mission and to be able to "deal with 
someone on the Gaza side other than Hamas."  Lyrvall said the 
EU should avoid accepting full responsibility for protecting 
the borders, a task that even the Israeli Forces could not 
achieve; rather, the EU would need a third country -- 
possibly Turkey or Norway )- to interface with Hamas local 
authorities, and it would also need Egyptian agreement for a 
monitoring mission. 
 
Transatlantic Talks on Middle East, Sweden's EU Presidency 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Lyrvall noted that he was talking with others in the 
EU about developing transatlantic relations further on 
additional topics, such as on the Middle East, through 
additional meetings of EU foreign ministers with the 
Secretary of State.  Lyrvall noted that he would try to 
travel to Washington in April to discuss transatlantic 
management of the Middle East and other issues during 
Sweden's EU Presidency. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (C) Lyrvall's statements confirm previous reporting (Ref 
B) that Sweden's position on Iran sanctions is evolving in a 
positive direction.  Predictably, Lyrvall was anxious to 
justify any new sanctions as intensified applications of 
existing UNSCRs and not as autonomous EU sanctions, per se. 
WOOD