VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSJ #0018/01 0142339
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 142339Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0406
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1141
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA PRIORITY 0052

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN JOSE 000018 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA, WHA/CEN, WHA/CCA; HHS FOR SECRETARY'S OFFICE 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2019 
TAGS: PREL CS CU PGOV PINR OVIP
SUBJECT: HHS LEAVITT VISIT: PRESIDENT ARIAS MUSES ON 
REGIONAL POLITICS; SIGNALS POSSIBLE OPENING WITH CUBA 
 
REF: A. A) 2008 SAN JOSE 1000 
     ¶B. B) 2008 SAN JOSE 629 (BOTH NOTAL) 
 
Classified By: DCM Peter Brennan per 1.4 (d) 
 
1.(C) SUMMARY:  HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt visited Costa 
Rica January 7 to officially open a regional FDA office 
(septel). The visit afforded the opportunity for the 
Secretary, Ambassador Cianchette and members of the 
Secretary,s delegation to meet with President Oscar Arias. 
After discussing FDA,s international program, the 
conversation turned to regional politics, with an 
obviously-engaged Arias giving a tour d,horizon.  On 
Venezuela, he believes that Chavez is now in a difficult 
economic position due to falling oil prices, soaring 
inflation, and unrealistic aid pledges to other countries. 
With Cuba, although still a strong critic of the Castro 
regime, Arias made clear he is contemplating re-establishing 
full relations. We anticipate that Arias may move soon, 
especially if the new U.S. administration makes a major 
gesture such as closing the Guantanamo facility or softening 
aspects of the embargo.  The President also said he had been 
in contact with Dan Restrepo of the transition team, on other 
issues.  HHS Leavitt and party did not clear this cable in 
advance.  END SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------------- 
THE REGION ACCORDING TO OSCAR 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Secretary Leavitt met with President Arias in the 
latter,s office.  The Ambassador, FDA Commissioner von 
Eshenbach, HHS Director Stieger and Econoff accompanied the 
Secretary.  GOCR Vice Minister of Health Ana Cecilia Morice 
joined Arias. 
 
¶3. (C) When Secretary Leavitt asked how Arias viewed current 
Central American politics, the President brightened and 
offered the following observations: 
 
-- El Salvador: the FMLN will win the 2009 national election; 
although the leading candidate (Funes) is a &moderate,8 the 
party itself is quite radical; 
 
-- Honduras: the Zeyala government is now working closely 
with President Chavez, in spite of critics within the country; 
 
-- Nicaragua: now a &borderline rogue state8; Arias also 
said, &you (the USG) would call it a failed state8.  Arias 
noted with matter-of-fact dryness that President Ortega 
&stole8 the last election.  Ortega has now gained control 
of most of the institutions except for the national assembly, 
but sidesteps this institution by governing by decree. 
Noting that the US and the EU had cut foreign assistance 
(because of Ortega,s attacks on Nicaraguan democracy), Arias 
lamented that the volatile politics and unstable economy in 
Costa Rica,s northern neighbor created an immigration 
problem for his country; and 
 
-- Venezuela: Chavez is experiencing difficult times given 
the current (low) price of oil and the BRV economy,s 
near-total dependence on oil exports.  Furthermore, saddled 
with the &highest inflation in Latin America, at 30 
percent8, Chavez cannot keep his promises to aid other 
countries.  Arias expected Chavez to continue to support 
Cuba, but the BRV would be &unlikely8 to maintain its 
commitments elsewhere.  VM Morice opined that Cuba had 
strengthened the  &weak8 BRV health system, with Cuban 
doctors first working in provincial areas and then moving to 
the cities. Secretary Leavitt noted that the &export8 of 
Cuban medical assistance is one of several reasons behind 
opening the FDA regional office in Costa Rica. 
 
------------------------------ 
EAGERNESS TO ENGAGE WITH CUBA? 
------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (C) Although not asked directly about Cuba, Arias voiced 
doubts about the &Bush policy of isolating governments who 
are opponents8.  He recalled that &dialogue was important8 
among opponents in Central America during the conflictive 
1980,s (when he served his first term as president).  As a 
&civilized country,8 the U.S. understands that talking to 
 
the opposition is key.  Military force should be the last 
resort, in Arias, opinion. 
 
¶5. (C) Given that Costa Rica is one of two countries in 
Central America currently without full diplomatic relations 
with Cuba, and is likely to be the lone country given the 
trend of the El Salvadoran presidential elections, Costa Rica 
must think carefully about its relationship with Cuba, Arias 
added.  Cuba might follow China,s path, he continued, with a 
&perestroika strategy8 leading to openness in the economy 
in the short term and political reforms later.  (Arias did 
not clarify who would pressure the Cubans for such reforms). 
 
 
----------------------- 
BUT WHO IN CUBA LISTENS? 
----------------------- 
 
 
¶6. (C) Arias proudly maintained that he was the only head of 
state in the region publicly critical of the Cuban regime. 
But, he wondered aloud, &does that serve any purpose?8 
Arias recalled that when he was outside of government (six or 
seven years ago), he wrote and personally delivered a letter 
to Fidel Castro, with recommendations for opening up 
democracy on the island.  Castro responded by letter, but 
said &no8 to all of Arias, suggestions.  Arias concluded, 
&Castro does not listen to anybody, not even to the Pope.8 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7. (C) Although still a strong critic of the Castro regime, 
Arias is clearly contemplating re-establishing full relations 
with Cuba; the idea has been simmering for months (Reftels). 
With a new U.S. administration just days, away, Arias was 
clearly comfortable hinting at the prospect with an out-going 
USG cabinet member.  We therefore would not be surprised if 
the GOCR moves quickly on Cuba, especially if the Obama 
administration makes a major gesture early in its term (such 
as closing the Guantanamo detention facility or easing some 
of the terms of the embargo).  With CAFTA EIF at last behind 
him, and national elections just 13 months away, Arias may 
welcome the chance to make a dramatic foreign policy gesture 
toward Cuba.  This would be in keeping with his desire to 
make periodic marks on the global stage, and the tendency for 
his administration to make short-notice &policy pivots8 as 
in the cases of opening relations with China (in 2007) and 
moving the Costa Rican embassy from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv (in 
2006). 
CIANCHETTE