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R 301137Z JAN 09 ZDS
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7191
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 6516
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 0642
RUEHJO/AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG 8863
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000182 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y  (PARA 1 & 5 MARKINGS) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KJUS PGOV SF
SUBJECT: UDM WELL-ORGANIZED, BUT LACKS SUPPORT NEEDED TO 
MAKE IMPACT IN ELECTION 
 
PRETORIA 00000182  001.6 OF 002 
 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (SBU)  The United Democratic Movement (UDM) ran a 
well-organized, nationally televised manifesto launch in 
Johannesburg on January 24 that on the face of it suggests 
Bantu Holomisa's party is ready to make inroads in the 
upcoming election.  The party drew roughly 5,000 supporters, 
almost all from the party's base in Eastern Cape, to the 
South African National Convention Centre on the weekend. 
Holomisa's promise that the party would focus on economic 
development, combating crime, improving education, fighting 
corruption, saving the environment, improving health care, 
and pushing electoral reform was televised across the country 
on the South Africa Broadcasting Corporation (SABC).  The 
emergence of the Congress of the People (COPE) and the lack 
of viable party candidates aside from Holomisa makes it 
unlikely the UDM will improve its fortunes drastically 
despite its successful launch.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------- 
UDM Launches Manifesto 
---------------------- 
 
¶2. (U)  The UDM held its policy manifesto launch at the South 
African National Convention Centre in southwestern 
Johannesburg on January 24.  The launch, well attended by 
both party supporters and journalists, was broadcast live on 
SABC.  (Note: The SABC's decision to broadcast the UDM's 
policy manifesto launch rather than the COPE manifesto launch 
in Eastern Cape drew condemnation from Mosiuoa Lekota's party 
even though the corporation stated its obligation to cover 
parties with at least one percent representation in 
Parliament.  Lekota boycotted a debate among political 
parties on January 25 because of the broadcasting service's 
decision.  End Note.)  UDM party leaders and media 
representatives gauged the crowd to be roughly 5,000.  The 
atmosphere was that of a family reunion, with nearly everyone 
in the crowd wearing party t-shirts adorned with Holomisa's 
photo.  (Note: Poloffs noted that most of the vehicles in the 
convention center's parking lot showed Eastern Cape plates. 
End Note.)  Despite a relaxed atmosphere from the crowd, 
there was very little dancing and the only music came when 
the party played its official election anthem on speakers. 
 
¶3. (U)  The UDM's launch was well-organized and efficient. 
Party volunteers ushered journalists and diplomats from the 
main auditorium to the VIP section for smaller discussions 
and refreshments.  The volunteers made sure every guest had a 
copy of the UDM manifesto and other party pamphlets.  Party 
leaders sat quietly on the main podium throughout all the 
speeches and the remarks started and ended on schedule, 
largely because of the time allotted to the party by the 
SABC.  Most of the leaders were relatively unknown to the 
journalists and diplomats at the event.  University of South 
Africa political scientist Dirk Kotze commented that the UDM 
launch was the most organized event he has attended this 
election cycle.  He said, "The speeches gave a clear 
indication of where this party wants to go."  (Note: Kotze 
also said the UDM is everything that COPE hopes to avoid -- a 
party formed as a protest against the ANC by a leader with 
support in the Eastern Cape.  End Note.) 
 
------------------------------ 
UDM Pushes Extensive Manifesto 
------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (U)  The UDM pledged to focus on economic development, 
Q4. (U)  The UDM pledged to focus on economic development, 
combating crime, improving education, fighting corruption, 
saving the environment, improving health care, and pushing 
electoral reform.  (Note:  For more information see the UDM's 
website at www.udm.org.za.  End Note.)  Holomisa went through 
each of the campaign issues during his speech, which was 
later used along with music as the party's official election 
anthem.  However, he spoke in generalities when he addressed 
the issues, offering few concrete examples of how the UDM can 
improve some of the country's most pressing challenges.  For 
instance, on corruption, Holomisa noted that the UDM has a 
"zero-tolerance approach to corruption and nepotism; South 
Africans must be able to trust their leaders in government." 
On the environment, he noted, "An environmental crisis is 
looming in South Africa."  The only issue on which Holomisa 
did present an alternative was on electoral reform.  He said, 
"For many years the UDM has advocated for a more accountable 
 
PRETORIA 00000182  002.4 OF 002 
 
 
electoral system -- a directly elected President and a mix of 
constituency-based and proportional representation in 
Parliament and provincial legislatures."  (Note:  The issue 
of electoral reform has taken off among political parties 
still upset over the forced recall of former President Thabo 
Mbeki.  End Note.)  Poloffs spoke with several UDM members 
about their reasons for supporting the UDM.  One member said, 
"I support the party because I support Holomisa.  We need 
change in this country and he can do it."  Another noted, "I 
think we have strong issues, but an even stronger leader." 
 
 
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Comment 
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¶5. (SBU)  The UDM's policy manifesto launch was 
well-organized and efficient, but those characterizations 
probably will not do much to improve the party's chances in 
the election.  Holomisa's party will be challenged by COPE 
because both are laying claim, along with the African 
National Congress (ANC), to broad support in the Eastern 
Cape.  There were signs of significant support for the UDM 
from the Eastern Cape, but there was little indication that 
the party is drawing enough support nationally to overtake 
the ANC or COPE.  The party also is challenged by the fact 
that it is still very much Holomisa's party, without many 
recognizable candidates beyond him.  The party for now seems 
to remain popular with those who identify with Holomisa and 
believe he can deliver change. 
BALL