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DE RUEHZP #0068/01 0221940
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R 221940Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
TO RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2886

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000068 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PM
SUBJECT: MARTINELLI SECURES 12 POINT LEAD OVER RULING PARTY 
CANDIDATE 
 
Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo   Reasons: 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Opposition candidate Ricardo Martinelli of 
Democratic Change (CD) has been declared the 
"absolute favorite" by the Panamanian media after 
gaining a 12 point lead over ruling Revolutionary 
Democratic Party (PRD) candidate Balbina Herrera, 
according to a recent Dichter and Neira presidential 
poll.  Businessman Juan Carlos Varela of the 
Panamenista Party receded further from view to an 
ever-distant third place, while former President 
Guillermo Endara's Moral Vanguard campaign appears 
on the verge of complete collapse. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
Martinelli Surges in the Polls While Rivals Lose Ground 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) When asked who they would vote for if the 2009 
elections were held today, Ricardo Martinelli won an 
initial 44.3 percent of voter preference, representing 
a three point gain from Dichter and Neira's December poll 
results.  Martinelli secured another three points last 
week, elevating him 47 percent of voter preference, 
based on the results of Dichter and Neira's weekly 
supplement of data collected January 9 and 10. 
Meanwhile, the Herrera machine idled at 31.3 percent, 
showing virtually no change from December's numbers. 
Panamenista Party candidate Juan Carlos Varela continued 
to flag in popularity with 14.1 percent of voter 
preference, losing 4.5 points since December.  Endara's 
campaign capsized at 2.5 percent, sinking below the 
poll's 2.8 percent margin of error. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Pollster Unimer also published new numbers 
this month in Panama City daily La Prensa, giving 
Martinelli a whopping 18 point lead over Herrera. 
According to Unimer, Martinelli rose 6.9 points, from 
36.2 percent in November to 43.1 percent in January. 
The first numbers from Unimer since Herrera named VP 
running mate Juan Carlos Navarro served to underscore 
the failure of any expected gains for the PRD, as 
Herrera suffered a 5.4 point drop in popularity, falling 
from 30.8 percent in November to 25.4 percent in January. 
Varela scored only 14.9 percent of voter preference 
in the Unimer poll, tying "blank vote" in Unimer's 
sample.  Endara teetered on the edge of oblivion at 
.9 percent. Unimer's poll included 1,210 participants 
and has a 2.8 percent margin of error. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Security Remains Top Voter Concern 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Since November, crime and insecurity have 
been cited consistently by respondents to Dichter 
and Neira's pollsters as the biggest problems in 
neighborhoods that warrant prompt attention.  In 
November, voters rated insecurity slightly higher 
than crime, at 26.8 and 24.5 percent, respectively. 
In December, crime took the lead with 25.7 percent, 
while insecurity fell 5 points to 20.8 percent. 
This trend continued in January, where 33.6 
percent of respondents now cite crime as the number 
one concern, an 8.1 percent increase since December, 
and 19 percent cite insecurity as the biggest problem 
in their neighborhood, a 7.8 point drop.  Garbage, 
unemployment and the poor state of the streets 
were rated third, fourth and fifth in matters 
of concern, while other issues were an even lesser 
concern, including lack of water, electricity, 
gangs and drugs. 
 
¶5. (SBU) When asked by Dichter and Neira what they 
considered to be the most serious problem 
confronting the country as a whole, 43.1 percent 
of respondents cited security, up 7.7 points from 
December.  Security has held steady as the issue of 
top national concern among respondents since 
November of 2008, followed by the cost of living, 
which fell 3 points from December, but still rated 
 
22.3 percent.  For the first time, juvenile violence 
outpaced unemployment as the third most pressing 
national concern, garnering 13.7 percent, a 5.7 point 
increase from last month. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Similarly, Panama City daily newspaper 
Panama America reported that according to the latest 
poll conducted by Ipsos for Telemetro (channel 13), 
insecurity, violence and crime were considered to 
be the most serious problems by 78 percent of 
respondents.  The numbers coincide with recent 
media reports that crime rose 34 percent last year, 
including an increase in the number of homicides 
by one third, from 444 in 2007 to 593 in 2008. 
 
----------------- 
Remedial Measures 
----------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Asked by Dichter and Neira if they 
believed that the state should apply tough measures 
against crime, 96.2 percent said yes, while only 
2.9 percent said no.  (Comment:  PRD candidate 
Balbina Herrera appears to have gotten on the wrong 
side of voter preference on this issue by publicly 
opposing a tough government approach (known as the 
"mano dura" policy), instead advocating a focus on 
social measures to combat crime.)  Interestingly, 
when asked if the police make frequent rounds 
past their house or neighborhood, 25.3 responded 
that the police make rounds several times a day, 
indicating a fairly strong police presence in many 
areas.  A total of 26.5 percent responded that the 
police made rounds in their area "occasionally", 
14.7 responded "once a day," and only 11.4 percent 
responded that they had never seen police making 
rounds.  When asked what should be done to improve 
security, the majority of those polled supported 
lengthening jail times (22.4 percent) and treating 
minors like adults under the law (20.4 percent), 
while others favored a combined approach (20 percent). 
 
--------------------------- 
Balbina Locks Down Her Base 
--------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) According to Dichter and Neira, A total 
of 76.5 percent of voters said they would "definitely 
vote" in the May elections, a number that has risen 
slightly over the last three months (from 72.9 
percent in November and 73.4 percent in December). 
Herrera continued to rally the greatest number 
of committed supporters with 83 percent who would 
"definitely vote" for her, representing a 6.6 point 
increase from 76.4 percent in December.  This number 
remained unchanged in the Dichter and Neira weekly 
supplement, reporting results from January 9 and 
¶10.  Supporters of Herrera appear slightly more 
committed than Martinelli fans, who initially 
scored 78.2 percent of definite votes in January, 
an increase of 6.5 points from 71.7 percent in 
December.  Yet Martinelli gained an additional 
2.8 points in the last week, bringing him up to 
81 percent. 
 
¶9. (C) Curiously, the greatest increase in voter 
support was initially seen among Varela enthusiasts, 
with 82.4 percent stating they would "definitely 
vote" for Varela, representing an 8.3 point surge 
from December.  However, this number was followed 
by a 12.4 point plummet last week, leaving Varela 
with 75 percent.  Similarly, Endara supporters 
also appeared to make an impressive rally, with 
77.4 percent saying that they would "definitely vote" 
for him, up an extraordinary 13.5 points from December. 
This number also crashed by a dramatic 13.4 points last 
week, however, bringing Endara's percent of definite 
voters down to its original 64 percent.  (Given the 
small number of Endara supporters, the margins of 
error for this question were  /-18percent and  /-18.9 
percent).  (Comment:  These whiplash movements on this 
tracking question with respect to Varela and Endara 
may be evidence of campaigns in their death throes as the 
most devote supporters are the last to abandon their 
preferred candidate, but, when they do, tend to move 
en masse.) 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) In summary, Herrera remains in the lead, 
securing 83 percent of definite votes, while Martinelli 
has steadily gained ground with 81 percent.  Varela and 
Endara have nosedived dramatically in the last week, 
now capturing 75 and 64 percent of definite votes, 
respectively. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Performance of the Current Government 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Dichter and Neira's January's numbers 
with respect to the performance of incumbent 
President Martin Torrijos remained similar to 
those of the last four months: 3.6 percent 
of voters rated his performance as "excellent", 
44.6 percent as "good", 38.9 percent as "bad" 
and 9.7 percent as "very bad".  These numbers 
virtually mirror the findings of the latest 
Unimer poll, where 49.1 percent of respondents 
said that the administration's performance had 
been bad or very bad, and 48.8 percent felt it 
was good or excellent.  Similarly, respondents 
expressed no marked changes in their opinion of 
the performance of the national government as a 
whole since October.  According to Dichter and 
Neira's January numbers, 2.6 percent found the 
performance of the national government to 
be "excellent", 38.6 percent as "good", 44.8 
percent as "bad" and 10.6 percent as "very bad". 
 
-------------- 
Technical Data 
-------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Second Dichter and Neira January poll: 
Dichter and Neira conducted 1,238 interviews of 
men and women over the age of 18 who are residents 
of Panama.  The poll was conducted nationally, 
except in the remote and difficult to reach Darien 
Province and indigenous people's autonomous 
regions (comarcas).  Interviews were conducted 
face-to-face in individuals' homes from Friday, 
January 9 to Saturday, January 10.  Sampling 
was multi-staged.  The first stage distributed 
the total sample according to population by 
province as well as rural and urban precincts 
(corregimientos), and in the second stage 
blocks were randomly selected and homes were 
first randomly and then systematically selected. 
The margin of error for the poll was assessed 
at  /- 2.8 percent with a confidence level of 
95 percent. 
 
¶13. (SBU) First Dichter and Neira January poll: 
Dichter and Neira conducted 1,243 interviews 
of men and women over the age of 18 who are 
residents of Panama.  The poll was conducted 
nationally, except in the remote and difficult 
to reach Darien Province and indigenous people's 
autonomous regions (comarcas).  Interviews were 
conducted face-to-face in individuals' homes 
from Friday, January 2 to Sunday, January 4. 
Sampling was multi-staged.  The first stage 
distributed the total sample according to 
population by province as well as rural and 
urban precincts (corregimientos), and in the 
second stage blocks were randomly selected 
and homes were first randomly and then 
systematically selected.  The margin of 
error for the poll was assessed at  /- 2.8 
percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. 
 
¶14. (SBU) December Dichter and Neira poll: 
Dichter and Neira conducted 1,200 interviews 
of men and women over the age of 18 who are 
residents of Panama.  The poll was conducted 
nationally, except in the remote and difficult 
to reach Darien Province and indigenous people's 
autonomous regions (comarcas).  Interviews 
were conducted face-to-face in individuals' 
homes from Friday, November 28 to Sunday, 
November 30.  Sampling was multi-staged. 
The first stage distributed the total sample 
according to population by province as well as 
 
rural and urban precincts (corregimientos), and in 
the second stage blocks were randomly selected 
and homes were first randomly and then 
systematically selected.  The margin of error 
for the poll was assessed at  /- 2.9 
percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. 
 
15 (SBU) November Dichter and Neira poll: 
Dichter and Neira conducted 1,200 interviews of 
men and women over the age of 18 who are residents 
of Panama.  The poll was conducted nationally, 
except in the remote and difficult to reach 
Darien Province and the indigenous people's 
autonomous regions (comarcas).  Interviews 
were conducted face-to-face in individuals' 
homes from Friday, October 24 to Sunday, October 
¶26.  Sampling was multi-staged.  The first 
stage distributed the total sample according 
to population by province as well as rural and 
urban precincts (corregimientos), and in the 
second stage blocks were randomly selected and 
homes were first randomly and then systematically 
selected.  The margin of error for the poll was 
assessed at  /- 2.9 percent with a confidence level 
of 95 percent. 
 
STEPHENSON 
GILMOUR