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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000105 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PTER IN EAGR
SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, JANUARY 12-16, 2009 
 
¶1.  (U)  Below is a compilation of political highlights 
from Embassy New Delhi for January 12-16, 2009, that did 
not feature in our other reporting, including: 
 
--  Budget Session February 12-26 
--  April-May Schedule Expected for Parliamentary Elections 
--  Jharkhand Chief Minister Steps Down 
--  Congress Youth Wave: Primetime for Priyanka in UP? 
--  Somnath's Return to CPM Up in the Air 
--  Badal's Son Appointed Deputy CM in Punjab 
 
 
Budget Session February 12-26 
- - - 
 
¶2.  (U)  The Indian Parliament will meet to discuss budget 
issues from February 12-26, the last session before national 
elections due by this year.  The ruling United Progressive 
Alliance (UPA) government will seek Parliamentary 
authorization to spend money beyond the end of the fiscal 
year on March 31, 2009, and until a new government is in 
place following the April-May national elections.  GOI will 
also present the following non-budgetary items: approval for 
the establishment of public universities, salary adjustment 
for high court and Supreme Court judges and changes to 
legislation relating to the Central Industrial Security Force 
to allow it to protect private sector facilities.  The 
government has also offered to amend count-terrorism 
legislation passed in the December session if need be to 
address critics. 
 
April-May Schedule Expected for Parliamentary Elections 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) While there has been no announcement yet, there is 
growing consensus that elections for the Lok Sabha (lower 
house of parliament) will take place in several tranches 
between mid-April and mid-May, with a new government expected 
in place by the first week of June.  A formal call for 
elections by the government is anticipated shortly after the 
abridged February 12-26 budget session.  The parameters of 
the election schedule are influenced by several 
organizational and legal compulsions.  First, the 15th Lok 
Sabha must by law convene by June 6 because the five-year 
term of the 14th Lok Sabha expires on that date.  Second, Lok 
Sabha rules require a minimum seven-day notice to newly 
elected members to assemble in Parliament.  Third, a 
reasonable rule of thumb is that the complexities of 
negotiations to forge coalitions and form a multi-party 
government require about two weeks.  Together, these 
conditions suggest that vote counting occur and election 
results be announced by May 15, at the latest. 
 
¶4.  (U) The massive security and organizational demands of 
the Indian election exercise require that the polls be 
staggered over a 3-4 week period, which suggests that the 
first phase of polling take place by the third week of April. 
 The legally mandated 24-day "notification" period means that 
Election Commission must formally "notify" (or announce) the 
elections some time before the end of March.  We expect the 
government to call for elections shortly after the end of the 
February parliamentary session, giving the Election 
Commission a few weeks in March to plan, schedule and notify 
the election. 
 
 
Jharkhand Chief Minister Steps Down 
--- 
 
¶5.  (U)  Shibu Soren stepped down as Jharkhand Chief Minister 
on January 11, a few days after losing a state assembly 
by-election in an upset to a political newcomer.  A veteran 
regional leader, Soren became CM in Jharkhand last August and 
was under constitutional obligation to contest state assembly 
 
NEW DELHI 00000105  002 OF 003 
 
 
elections within six months.  Journalist Harish Khare 
observed that Soren's resignation from office was a "victory 
for democracy," noting that local elections do result in real 
shift of power. 
 
¶6. (SBU)  In his forty-plus years in politics, Soren has 
served as the Indian Minister of Coal, MP of Jharkhand and 
founding president of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the 
UPA's coalition partner in the state and in Delhi.  His early 
years as a popular rabble rousing tribal leader have been 
overshadowed by numerous allegations of criminal misconduct 
and corruption, including bribery and murder. 
 
Congress Youth Wave:  Primetime for Priyanka in UP? 
--- 
 
¶7.  (U)  There is growing media speculation that Priyanka 
Gandhi, 35-year-old daughter of Sonia Gandhi, my contest 
upcoming Lok Sabha elections this year.  At least six 
districts in Uttar Pradesh have called for Priyanka's 
nomination.  All India Congress Committee officials on 
January 14 praised Priyanka as a "youth icon" who would bring 
welcome change to national politics. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Priyanka's prospective entry into national 
politics is the latest in a series of Congress Party 
announcements targeted at mobilizing India's youth ahead of 
parliamentary elections.  35-year-old Omar Abdullah's January 
5 inauguration as the Chief Minister of J&K played in the 
headlines for many days, followed shortly by Foreign Minister 
Pranab Mukherjee's highly publicized endorsement of Rahul 
Gandhi as the "future" Prime Minister of India.  According to 
press, Congress leaders want to cash in on Priyanka's 
popularity in her husband Robert Vadra's home district of 
Moradabad, Uttar Pradesh.  It is impossible to say what is 
driving the sudden calls for Priyanka to enter politics. 
Often, local Congress leaders use such exhortions to prove 
their fealty to the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty in the hope they can 
curry some small advantage over their rivals within the 
party.  At other times, the party leadership itself 
orchestrates such calls, which the members of the dynasty 
then pretend they are duty-bound to accept as acts of 
sacrifice rather than of self-interest. 
 
Somnath's Return to CPM Up in the Air 
--- 
 
¶9.  (U)  Ahead of hotly contested national elections this 
year, senior CPI(M) leaders have urged the party leadership 
to reinstate Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee into the 
party.  West Bengal minister for sports and youth affairs 
Subhas Chakraborty and several CPI(M) leaders sent a letter 
to party secretary Biman Bose last week endorsing 
Chatterjee's return.  Sources close to Chakraborty said that 
Chatterjee's years of national political experience and 
cross-party ties would benefit CPI(M) in national polls. 
 
¶10.  (U)  Chatterjee was expelled from CPI(M) after being 
accused of working against his party's directive during the 
July 2008 confidence vote in parliament on the U.S.-India 
civil nuclear deal and ignoring the party's demands to step 
down as the Lok Sabha Speaker.  CPI(M) leaders on January 15 
indicated that there was "no clear thought process" regarding 
Chaterjee's future with the party. 
 
Badal's Son Appointed Deputy CM in Punjab 
--- 
 
¶11.  (U)  Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal's son 
Sukhbir was appointed Deputy Chief Minister of State by the 
Shiromani Akali Daal (SAD) core committee on January 15. 
Sukhbir Badal is currently the party president.  Local press 
ran stories portraying some heartburn within the local unit 
of coalition partner BJP, with some officials complaining 
 
NEW DELHI 00000105  003 OF 003 
 
 
that CM Badal had not consulted with the BJP before making 
the decision.  They also laid claim to the the post of Deputy 
Chief Minister for someone from the BJP.  Badal said he had 
informed the BJP central leadership, including L.K. Advani 
and Rajnath Singh, of the impending move. 
 
¶12.  (SBU)  Political observers were not surprised by the 
move, noting that CM Badal has been grooming his son for 
the position for a decade.  Sukhbir has been widely credited 
with orchestrating the SAD's win in 2007 state assembly polls 
and is seen as the party's best option against Congress's 
state campaign leader and former CM Amarinder Singh in 
upcoming Lok Sabha elections.  Badal junior is widely 
expected to succeed his father when the elder Badal steps 
down.  Sukhbir was Indian Minister of Steel in the BJP-led 
NDA government from 1999 to 2004.  He studied at the 
prestigious Lawrence Sanawar boarding school and is a close 
friend of Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah. 
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