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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000147 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID SO
 
SUBJECT: Somalia - Elections in Somaliland May Be Delayed 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY.  Somaliland's presidential elections, currently planned 
for March 29, may be delayed for approximately two weeks.  As agreed 
by all stakeholders, the Somaliland elections are to be held after 
the conclusion of a comprehensive voter registration process.  The 
October suicide bombings in Hargeisa caused a delay in the voter 
registration process and it will not be completed before March 15. 
The one-month campaign period cannot begin until the voter 
registration list is accepted by all parties.  Although the National 
Election Committee is professionally weak, and there have been some 
irregularities, all observers agree the highly sophisticated 
registration process, including facial recognition and fingerprints, 
has gone reasonably well.  In a January 15 meeting with the 
Ambassador, opposition candidate Ahmed "Silanyo" Mohamed Mohamud 
said the process has been embraced by all Somaliland citizens, 
especially in the rural areas, and appealed for more engagement by 
the U.S. to ensure free, fair and transparent elections.  End 
Summary. 
 
Election Process Behind Schedule 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The Somaliland electoral process is proceeding relatively 
smoothly, but behind the original schedule due to the October 29 
Hargeisa suicide bombings.  The presidential elections are planned 
for March 29, but our NGO partners facilitating the process told us 
this date is likely to slip at least two weeks.  If everything goes 
according to plans, the voter registration will be fully complete by 
March 15, vice mid-February as originally planed.  The voter 
registration list must be accepted by all three parties before the 
one-month campaign period can begin.  Our partners said that because 
of the pre-election activities that must occur under the law, there 
is no way the presidential elections can take place on March 29. 
Any delay beyond mid-April would require an act of parliament. 
 
High Turnout for Registration Process 
But Some Irregularities 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) While in general, all stakeholders agree that the voter 
registration process has been successful, impressive in terms of its 
scope and reach.  Many held concerns about actually getting people 
out to register, yet the turn out has been tremendous.  Opposition 
leader Ahmed Silanyo told the Ambassador that many, especially in 
the rural areas, were seeing their photograph for the first time. 
When their neighbors saw the voter registration/identification card, 
it demystified the process, and they too wanted to take part.  The 
most significant difficulties have occurred in the disputed Sool and 
Sanaag regions where on January 4 two electoral officials and senior 
military officer were killed. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) There have also been some irregularities in the process, 
with multiple registrations as the most common problem.  With 
fingerprints and facial recognition software build into the 
registration, any duplicates should be eliminated once the 
electronic system validates the data.  Some warn that since this is 
the first time a computerized process has been employed, the public 
may not be willing to trust the automated system. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Our NGO partner Interpeace is working with the National 
Electoral Committee (NEC) to produce a code of conduct detailing 
agreed terms for handling non-fingerprinted registrants and the use 
of facial recognition software.  The code is to be signed by all 
three parties and the NEC.  A draft of the code of conduct has 
already been sent to the NEC for review and once it is signed, then 
preparations for compilation of the final voter list will get 
underway.  All three parties must review and approve this final list 
before they launch their formal campaigns. 
 
Weak National Electoral Committee 
Undermining Process 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Interpeace expressed major disappointment with the work of 
the NEC.  Interpeace told us that all of the seven members are 
generally incompetent and not able to address challenges in a 
professional manner.  Their concerns are shared by the opposition 
parties and to some extent, the president.  Many fear that if the 
elections are managed by the current NEC, it would be disastrous. 
The NEC has proved itself incapable of basic strategic planning and 
 
NAIROBI 00000147  002 OF 002 
 
 
management, as demonstrated by the NEC's poor management of the 
voter registration process and the lack of any tangible preparations 
for the elections.  All of our contacts in Somaliland told us that 
if it were left only to the NEC, neither the registration process 
nor the election preparations would have moved forward.  In case of 
a close election, a dysfunctional NEC could make erratic decisions 
that could create serious problems. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The key stakeholders agree that there needs to be a 
reconstituted NEC, comprised of competent members.  (Note: The NEC 
is comprised of seven of members, representing each of Somaliland's 
three political parties. The opposition parties are willing to 
appoint new representatives to the NEC and Interpeace is confident 
that the government would agree to the same provided there was 
sufficient internal/external pressure.  Interpeace told us that a 
new NEC can be constituted and the elections can still take place 
with only a 2-3 week delay.  President Riyale's term expires on May 
6, 2009 so elections must be held before April 6. 
 
Opposition Leader Calls for 
Increased U.S. Engagement 
--------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) On January 15, the Ambassador met with leading opposition 
candidate Ahmed "Silanyo" Mohamed Mohamud.  (Note: Silanyo lost the 
2003 presidential election by a very small margin.  All agree that 
his concession of the election was a major achievement in 
Somaliland's democratic development.)  Silanyo told us that there is 
great excitement about the upcoming elections, especially in rural 
areas.  He said that Interpeace has been "excellent" and praised 
U.S. support for the organization.  (Note: Interpeace has been a key 
facilitator of the voter registration process, going as far as to 
send a staff member to India with the hard drive containing all the 
voter registration information when a travel ban to Somaliland by 
the Indian government made it impossible for Indian technicians to 
fix some technical glitches with the system.)  He also thanked the 
U.S. for supporting the political parties through programs with the 
International Republican Institute, yet noted that all party offices 
outside the capital remain weak.  Silanyo noted that his Kulmiye 
party has a high level of involvement by women who are major drivers 
of the voter registration process. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Silanyo asked the Ambassador to consider sending U.S. 
Government officials to be part of the international observer 
mission to Somaliland to help ensure transparency in the process. 
Silanyo said that he believes his party has an excellent chance of 
winning the election because "The current regime has been tested and 
they have failed - people are not happy."  Silanyo appealed for more 
visible U.S. support to the electoral process, using the media and 
other outlets to stress the importance of a free and fair 
presidential election.  He told the Ambassador that the U.S. remains 
incredibly popular with the public and a strong message would make a 
great impact of the conduct of the elections.  He acknowledged that 
smooth elections will be a cornerstone of Somaliland's case for 
recognition, which he said remains a top priority for all 
Somalilanders. 
 
Was this report helpful?  Send comments and questions to 
SomaliaWatchers@state.sgov.gov. 
 
RANNEBERGER