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O 271429Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8322
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHMV/AMEMBASSY MONROVIA 0352
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUZEFAA/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000146 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND Acting A/S CARTER 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - BAIDOA FALLS TO ISLAMISTS 
 
REF A: Djibouti 50 
REF B: Djibouti 60 
REF C: 08 Nairobi 2032 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  On January 26, Ethiopian troops departed Baidoa, 
the seat of the Somali parliament, setting off local clan 
in-fighting that facilitated the relatively peaceful entry of 
al-Shabaab militia loyal to Mukhtar Robow "al-Masur."  In meetings 
with local clan elders and local militia leaders, Robow helped 
restore order to Baidoa and reassure the population.  Baidoa's fall 
is unlikely to affect political progress toward a unity government 
(refs A and B).  As was the formula for al-Shabaab's takeover in 
Kismayo in August (ref C), in Baidoa the extremists capitalized on 
local inter-clan rivalries to take over the city.  End Summary. 
 
ENDF withdrawal sparks chaos 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Early January 26, as part of a broader withdrawal from 
Somalia, the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) departed 
Baidoa, the seat of Somalia's parliament.  Most parliamentarians 
were in Djibouti taking part in deliberations to form a unity 
government and elect a new president (Refs A and B).  Media contacts 
tell us that, to prevent a security vacuum, the ENDF left behind 
surplus and previously confiscated weapons and vehicles to Baidoa's 
main militia leaders, including that of Acting President and 
Parliamentary Speaker Adan Mohamed Nur "Madobe," Hassan Mohamed Nur 
"Sharti Gudud," and TFG Transport Minister Mohamed Ibrahim Habsade. 
According to our contacts, absent Ethiopia's usual mediation between 
the local groups, negotiations over how to divide the weapons 
degenerated into city-wide fighting.  As the fighting spread, first 
the public, then the militias themselves began looting the offices 
of the presidency and parliament.  Clan elders tried in vain to 
separate the militias and halt the looting.  The rival local 
militias eventually abandoned the city as al-Shabaab entered. 
 
Al-Shabaab Capitalizes on Clan Affiliations 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Just hours after the ENDF forces withdrew, al-Shabaab 
militia in small numbers converged on the city unopposed, halted the 
looting and restored calm, according to our contacts.  Rahanweyne 
clan elders, including Habsade, who had remained in the city, 
reportedly met with al-Shabaab Spokesman and fellow Rahanweyne 
clansman Mukhtar Robow "al-Masur."  Together, al-Shabaab leaders and 
clan leaders toured the city and reassured the population.  With 
Robow's permission, Habsade, his personal security contingent and 
several TFG and prospective ARS MPs left Baidoa bound for Djibouti 
to participate in the formation of a unity parliament. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Subsequent reports are that Robow addressed Baidoa's 
residents in the town's soccer stadium.  He reassured them of their 
security, pledged not to harm TFG civil servants and officials, and 
offered a two-day grace period to return looted property.  TFG 
officials also seem to have called a truce: media report that 
Mohamed Omar Dalha, TFG deputy speaker, down-played al-Shabaab's 
takeover of Baidoa, terming them "fellow Somalis." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Comment:  Baidoa's capture by al-Shabaab is a 
disappointment, but not wholly unexpected, and is unlikely to affect 
efforts at political reconciliation taking place in Djibouti (refs A 
and B).  MPs tell us they had moved their possessions out of the 
city before leaving for Djibouti, with the expectation the city 
would fall to insurgents.  Although Baidoa was the seat of Somalia's 
parliament, the legislature has facilities to meet in Mogadishu, the 
seat of government. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Comment, continued:  As it did in Kismayo last year (ref 
C), in Baidoa a reportedly small al-Shabaab force capitalized on 
local inter-clan rivalries to take over the city.  In addition to 
its military might, Ethiopia secured Baidoa by keeping a lid on the 
competitive impulses of the city's warlords.  When the ENDF left, 
the knives came out, and al-Shabaab moved in.  Furthermore, Baidoa's 
clan makeup favored Robow and his forces, and contributed to the 
 
NAIROBI 00000146  002 OF 002 
 
 
ease of their success.  Rahanweynes dominate the Bay region and its 
capital Baidoa, and they view Robow as one of their own.  Many of 
Robow's al-Shabaab fighters are also Rahanweynes.  In a media 
interview shortly before al-Shabaab entered Baioda, even TFG 
Minister Habsade reportedly said the town shouldn't fear an 
al-Shabaab take-over, as they were not "outsiders."  Barring an ENDF 
return to Baidoa, and until a Somali unity government can mount a 
credible security force, Robow's thin al-Shabaab presence will 
likely be sufficient to control Baidoa for the foreseeable future. 
End Comment. 
 
Was this report useful?  Send comments and questions to 
Somaliawatchers@state.sgov.gov. 
 
RANNEBERGER