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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 NAIROBI 000013 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER 
DEPT FOR H, PLEASE PASS CODEL FEINGOLD 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SOCI PINR SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - SENATOR FEINGOLD'S MEETINGS ON SOMALIA 
 
REF: 08 Nairobi 2781 
 
¶1.  (U) SUMMARY.  From December 19-21 Senator Feingold met in 
Djibouti with Somalia and Somaliland politicians, the UN Secretary 
General's Special Representative as well as NGO and private sector 
representatives.  The meetings occurred at a critical juncture as 
progress in the UN-led Djibouti Peace Process is being undercut by 
continued feuding among the Transitional Federal Government's (TFG) 
leadership and threatened by al-Shabaab's steady advances on the 
ground.  The United States is playing a leading role to promote 
unity and peace, and Senator Feingold's meetings underscored this 
commitment to the Djibouti Agreement and a more comprehensive U.S. 
approach to Somalia, coordinated with regional and international 
organizations.  End Summary. 
 
Prime Minister Moving Forward: 
Despite Spoilers on All Sides 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Senator Feingold's meeting with Prime Minister Nur Hassan 
Hussein "Nur Adde" began with the Senator underscoring U.S. support 
for the embattled Prime Minister and the Senator's appreciation for 
the work the PM has done to promote reconciliation.  (Note: The 
long-running feud among the TFG's top leadership took a dramatic 
turn for the worse when TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf issued a 
decree on December 14 dismissing the Prime Minister.)  The Prime 
Minister acknowledged the weakness of the TFG, opining that the 
international community has not provided the necessary support. 
Hussein said that the growing strength of al-Shabaab is directly 
linked to TFG weakness; the armed group is taking advantage of the 
TFG's failures at every turn.  Yet he emphasized that there are 
spoilers within the Transitional Federal Institutions who are as 
much a challenge to the Dibouti peace process as al-Shabaab. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Hussein told the Senator he intends to move forward on 
plans for an enlarged parliament including the Alliance for the 
Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS), civil society and business leaders, 
and an inclusive unity government.  Hussein said these plans are a 
threat to those who currently hold leadership positions.  The PM 
assured the Senator that if President Yusuf was removed, presumably 
through the impeachment process initiated in the parliament, Yusuf's 
Darod clan would be represented in an inclusive government of 
national unity.   The Prime Minister said he would mobilize the 
people and the media to bridge the divide between the high level 
peace process and the everyday problems on the ground.  The Prime 
Minister expressed his commitment to moving the peace process in the 
right direction and using it to implement the key transitional tasks 
to prepare for elections.  PM Hussein declared that with a free and 
fair election, there would be no more need for the 4.5 clan 
representation system and that Somalia would usher in a new era of 
"one person, one vote." 
 
TFG Weakness: 
Stumbling Block for All 
----------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  During his meeting with the UN Secretary General's 
Special Representative for Somalia (SRSG) Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, 
Senator Feingold asked about the effects of TFG internal crises. 
The SRSG replied, "We can manage the TFG infighting."  Ould-Abdallah 
also said that he favors targeted sanctions against all those 
blocking peace and to ensure that there are no double standards. 
The SRSG emphasized that Somalia needs a functioning government and 
that a bottom-up approach, while useful, cannot proceed with the 
current level of insecurity. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In the Senator's meeting with the Somalia Business and 
Investment Council (SBIC), the business leaders complained that they 
are paying taxes to the TFG, but getting nothing in return.  The 
Chairman of the Banadir Business Association estimated that they pay 
at least USD 1.25 million the TFG each month, while at the same time 
they are forced to pay for their own private security to protect 
their operations.  The business leaders appealed to the Senator for 
security assistance because "the TFG cannot protect us." 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Both the civil society and business leaders noted that 
their operations would be facilitated by a strong government, yet 
the TFG is unable to provide any services, especially the security 
they need most.  All of the Somali interlocutors agreed that 
 
NAIROBI 00000013  002 OF 006 
 
 
insecurity is at the root of most of Somalia's difficulties and that 
as long as the government remains weak, there will be no effective 
control in the country.  When the Senator asked about the 
relationship between the business community and the TFG, the 
businessmen responded that "on the ground, the TFG is nonexistent -- 
a non-factor in any of our operations."  Somaliland President Dahir 
Riyale Kahin told the Senator, "The TFG is not a government for me; 
the TFG is not a government for themselves." 
 
ARS Remains Committed 
To Unity Government 
--------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Sheikh Sharif, Chairman of the moderate Islamist 
Djibouti-based wing of the ARS and the most important ARS figure in 
the Djibouti Process, told the Senator that despite the challenges, 
he remains committed to the Djibouti Process and a unity government. 
 Sharif's ARS faction is making concrete steps on the ground to move 
the peace process forward.  (Note: On December 10, the ARS Chairman 
and more than twenty ARS leaders relocated to Mogadishu, this time 
they say to stay, in an effort to blunt by their presence some of 
al-Shabaab's momentum and begin reconciliation among elements of the 
former Islamic Courts Union.)  He welcomed the increased attention 
of the United States toward Somalia over the last two years and USG 
efforts to strengthen the peace process that "has excellent chances 
to succeed."  Sharif maintained that success is possible, despite 
the weakness of the Djibouti process -- Ethiopian withdrawal, TFG 
weakness, the lack of funds for a joint security force, and ongoing 
humanitarian issues.  Sharif told the Senator that the ARS is 
engaged in a process of government building and that "We should all 
be focused on a unity government rather than the former TFG." 
 
The al-Shabaab Threat: 
Real but Potentially Weakened 
----------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) In all of his meetings, the Senator expressed his concern 
with al-Shabaab's recent territorial gains.  (Note: Since September, 
the fundamentalist armed group has seized control of the key 
southern ports of Kismayo and Merka and controls most of the regions 
in southern and central Somalia.)  In response to Senator Feingold's 
question about the linkages between the ARS and al-Shabaab, Sharif 
said unequivocally that the ARS has nothing to do with al-Shabaab 
and that there is no connection between the two groups.  Sharif also 
stated that while al-Shabaab would like to have links with al-Qaeda, 
the links do not currently exist. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The ARS Chairman went on to tell the Senator that there 
are five distinct al-Shabaab groups, but that the population does 
not support any of them and that as a whole, they are receiving less 
financial support than in the past.  Sharif opined that al-Shabaab 
funds come from Merka and Kismayo port revenues and most 
importantly, from Eritrea.  Sharif said that based on his presence 
in Mogadishu, he is confident that security can be brought back. 
Sharif emphasized that the first step in defeating al-Shabaab must 
be support for Somali unity government forces.  This could be 
achieved by an empowered joint TFG-ARS security force, increased 
AMISOM capacity, and help and support from civil society. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Although al-Shabaab controls much territory, even the 
civil society leaders maintained that if the joint TFG-ARS security 
force was immediately established and funded, al-Shabaab could be 
defeated.  They maintained that because al-Shabaab is offering 
security, the group is being welcomed in many communities, but that 
al-Shabaab offers no other social services and cannot hold the 
alliance of the communities it controls, except by force.  Many 
noted that as al-Shabaab is getting bigger, it is becoming less 
disciplined and the training of its troops has suffered.  The 
business leaders were pragmatic in their approach, stating that they 
are forced to have contact with al-Shabaab because they must deal 
with the authorities in the areas they conduct business.  "They have 
extremist ideas and were marginalized, but now they have taken 
over."  The businessmen, like the majority of Somalis, do not like 
al-Shabaab, but as long as the group has control, the Somalis have 
no choice. 
 
Ethiopian Withdrawal: 
Risky But Necessary for 
Successful Peace Process 
 
NAIROBI 00000013  003 OF 006 
 
 
------------------------ 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Senator Feingold explored the various perspectives on 
Ethiopia's plans to withdraw its troops by the end of December.  The 
Prime Minister noted Ethiopian frustration with the TFG's inability 
to develop institutions and exert control over security and 
territory.  The PM was measured in his assessment of its impending 
withdrawal, stating that Ethiopian withdrawal is key to the Djibouti 
Agreement, yet it must occur only if bridging security forces have 
been deployed in sufficient numbers. The PM told the Senator that 
unless there is an urgent package that provides for security 
assistance, Ethiopian withdrawal could unleash a disaster and the 
"TFG might die." 
 
¶12.  (SBU) On the other hand, ARS Chairman Sheikh Sharif emphasized 
that immediate withdrawal of Ethiopian forces, at least from areas 
within Mogadishu, is vital to any hope for ARS success in the 
Djibouti process.  (Note: Sharif, the ARS, and others believe the 
Ethiopian occupation has aided al-Shabaab by providing a cause -- 
the ouster of Somalia's historical enemy -- that al-Shabaab and 
others use to recruit Somalis from all clans to join in combat 
against "foreign" forces and their allies, including the TFG.) 
 
¶13.  (SBU) The civil society leaders agreed that despite the risk, 
Ethiopian withdrawal is critical to a successful peace process.  The 
civil society leaders called for an immediate deployment of 
peacemaking/peacekeeping forces to stop the advance of extremist 
armed groups.  They told the Senator that as long as Ethiopia 
remains in Somalia, al-Shabaab and the other radical groups are 
getting stronger.  At least one civil society leader likened Somalia 
to "the next Afghanistan." 
 
Peacekeeping Operation: 
UN Undermining All Prospects 
---------------------------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) SRSG Ould-Abdallah said that in order for the peace 
process to work, Ethiopia must leave Somalia and AMISOM must stay. 
He said that while the AMISOM troop contributing countries were 
ready to stay, UN internal debates have undermined all efforts to 
secure a peacekeeping operation (PKO).  He said that the UN 
Department of Peacekeeping Operations "forced" the Secretary General 
to say that he is against a PKO, thus discouraging any potential 
troop contributing countries from pledging their support.  The SRSG 
also noted that the UN standards for troops are unrealistic and "so 
high that even the United States military would not qualify."  He 
said that it is critical for the UN to address the emergency at hand 
- Ethiopia is leaving and there is nothing yet to fill the vacuum. 
 
 
Humanitarian Situation: 
Worse Than it Has Ever Been 
--------------------------- 
 
¶15.  (SBU) The Prime Minister acknowledged the scope of the 
humanitarian crisis and said that deteriorating security is the root 
cause of the problem, as it hampers access and makes aid delivery 
difficult on land and because of piracy, on sea as well.  PM Hussein 
stated unequivocally that security is key to solving the 
humanitarian crisis.  ARS Chairman Sharif also acknowledged the 
humanitarian catastrophe and expressed his regret for the targeting 
of aid workers and kidnapping of foreigners.  Sharif said that in 
order to address the humanitarian crisis, the U.S. must support 
immediate implementation of the Djibouti Agreement.  Accelerated 
humanitarian assistance should be targeted to the communities who 
have demonstrated support and are implementing the peace agreement. 
"Anyone who opposes the agreement should have sanctions placed on 
them," Sharif concluded. 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Civil society leaders operating in Somalia described to 
Senator Feingold the deteriorating security situation that is 
challenging humanitarian access and shrinking the space for NGOs to 
work.  These leaders, many of whom have been working in Somalia for 
decades, said security is as bad as it has ever been.  The 
representatives appealed for more humanitarian aid to address the 
millions of Somalis in need.  While they highlighted the myriad 
challenges, they also described the opportunity to use the Djibouti 
peace process to immediate open doors.  They cautioned that if this 
process fails, al-Shabaab will take over.  At the same time, they 
 
NAIROBI 00000013  004 OF 006 
 
 
emphasized that there are "many Somalias" and it is important to 
focus on the places where there is peace and on the programs and 
initiatives that have worked. 
 
Peace Process Only Game in Town 
------------------------------- 
 
¶17.  (SBU) SRSG Ould-Abdallah, who has been the driving force behind 
the Djibouti Agreement, told Senator Feingold that "After twenty 
years of war, if we do not push the Djibouti process, it will not 
work."  The civil society leaders agreed, telling the Senator that 
the Djibouti process is different from all others because it is the 
first Somali process managed and run by civil society.  Noting that 
Prime Minister Hussein comes out of the humanitarian community, the 
Djibouti process has a significant representation by civil society, 
they said.  One implored us to insist on an increased presence of 
women in the peace talks and in any unity government noting that at 
present, women are absent from political decision-making and at both 
at the local government level and the high level processes.  This 
sentiment was echoed by others who insisted that to be successful, 
the process must focus more on engaging at the grassroots.  The 
representatives urged the Senator to help lead the U.S. 
administration to focus more on issues of justice, human rights, and 
development, and less on counter-terrorism.  They agreed with the 
Senator's conclusion that civil society is a key nexus to bring a 
country together. 
 
How Inclusive Should the Process Be? 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶18.  (SBU) Senator Feingold asked his interlocutors who should be 
included in the Djibouti process, in particular if ARS-Asmara leader 
Sheikh Dahir Aweys should or could be brought in.  SRSG 
Ould-Abdallah said that he has no problem with Aweys being brought 
into the process, but that "he should not be given veto power."  The 
Prime Minister responded that if Aweys is removed from the list of 
terrorists, his collaboration would be possible.  Sharif said that 
he and his group could open discussions with Aweys once Ethiopian 
forces withdraw.  Sharif said that Aweys could potentially be a 
positive force -- "We will be forced to work with him to achieve 
peace."  Sheikh Sharif noted that civil society is represented in 
all aspects of the peace process and that there are seats reserved 
for civil society and business leaders in a unity government. 
 
U.S. Engagement and 
Military Strikes 
------------------- 
 
¶19.  (SBU) The Prime Minister was surprisingly positive in his 
assessment of the effects of U.S. military strikes against high 
value targets inside Somalia.  He told the Senator, "The strikes 
have been positive and without them, the TFG would not be alive 
today."  He continued, "Aden Ayro was a threat to the TFG and his 
elimination was timely and appropriate."  (Note: Ayro was killed in 
a May 2008 strike in Dusamareb.) While he acknowledged that there 
was anti-American sentiment, the PM said that it is not related to 
U.S. military strikes.  The SRSG was equally supportive stating, 
"Ayro was killed, and it was good for all Somalis - we still need to 
go after terrorists.  If they would like to join us, they are 
welcomes, but we must continue to address impunity." 
 
¶20.  (SBU) By contrast, the civil society leaders were more critical 
of this U.S. approach.  One representative cautioned that military 
strikes have a direct negative effect on perceptions of U.S. NGOs 
operating in Somalia.  He cautioned that if there is another 
military strike, all of the remaining American NGOs would likely be 
forced out of the country. 
 
Anti-U.S. Sentiment Can Be Countered 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶21.  (SBU) The Prime Minister told the Senator that contrary to 
popular belief, support for the United States in Somalia is 
increasing.  PM Hussein cited the lack of a strong government, 
poverty, and Eritrean behavior as key determinants in increasing 
radicalism in Somalia.  In order to stem the growth of what they 
said was growing anti-American sentiment, civil society leaders 
recommended a solid and robust commitment to Somalia by the next 
administration.  They told the Senator that it is the perceived 
 
NAIROBI 00000013  005 OF 006 
 
 
connection between Ethiopia and the United States that is at the 
root of most negative views toward the U.S.  With 80 percent of 
Mogadishu's 100,000 students out of school, these ideas are being 
magnified in the streets they said, because they are no institutions 
left. 
 
¶22.  (SBU) One civil society leader noted that anti-American 
sentiment is highest among Western-educated young men, and noted the 
extreme religious teachings being propagated in Somali communities 
in the U.S.  Many agreed that resentment is expressed by the top 
leadership but is not shared at the local level.  To stem the tide 
of radicalization, they recommended direct engagement with local 
elders and community religious leaders and working through the clan 
system to win hearts and minds. 
 
Living in Mogadishu 
Is Like Being Confined to Prison 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶23.  (SBU) The civil society and business leaders described the 
difficulty of living and working in today's Somalia.  Visits to the 
county were akin to living in prison, with many confined to their 
residences surrounded by armed guards.  The civil society 
representatives told us that at least one person has been killed in 
each of the organizations represented.  One stated, "My colleagues 
have been assassinated - we are a target because we can make change 
happen on the ground."  They told the Senator that both their 
personal and collective sense of security has been reduced.  The 
business and civil society leaders noted that life before the TFG 
disarmament in early 2007 meant that they could operate, because 
each had armed personal security details.  Now, the TFG does not 
provide the necessary security, but does not allow them or any of 
the humanitarian aid delivery organizations to do so themselves, 
leaving them completely vulnerable and an open target. 
 
Piracy: 
Are the Authorities Benefiting? 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶24.  (SBU) The Senator asked Prime Minister Hussein whether there 
was any truth to the accusation that TFG and Puntland authorities, 
in addition to insurgents are all benefiting from piracy.  The PM 
responded that he cannot deny these rumors, though it would be 
difficult to entirely confirm them.  He said that piracy is 
increasing every day and the huge ransoms paid are increasingly 
emboldening the pirates.  Hussein concluded that a strong government 
is critical to getting piracy under control. 
 
Business Community: 
Seeking Partnerships with U.S. 
------------------------------ 
 
¶25.  (SBU) Representatives of the Somalia Business and Investment 
Council (SBIC) estimated to that Senator that 60 to 70 percent of 
the remittances that flow into Somalia originate in the United 
States.  (Note: financial remittances are estimated at USD 1 billion 
per year.)  They also discussed Somali imports of sesame oil, 
textiles, and gold into the U.S., principally targeted at the 
Diaspora communities there.  These business leaders work across clan 
divisions and with the authorities on the ground in all areas and 
they expressed a keen interest in exploring commercial partnerships 
and opportunities with U.S. businesses. 
 
Somaliland: 
Making the Case for Recognition 
------------------------------- 
 
¶26. (SBU) Senator Feingold opened his meeting with Somaliland 
President Dahir Riyale Kahin by presenting condolences on the 
suicide bombings in Hargeisa on October 29.  President Riyale told 
the Senator that some of the bombers were from Somaliland, but that 
they had trained in southern Somalia.  Riyale said that the 
extremists are the same -- no matter where they are and where they 
are from, they all have the same agendas.  Now, he said that many 
Somalilanders are helping the police and fighting terrorism at the 
community level, sharing information to "identify and capture 
terrorists."  Riyale said that for Somaliland, the bombings were a 
"wake up call, like 9/11 for the United States."  The Somaliland 
President said that the authorities have captured ten suspects, 
 
NAIROBI 00000013  006 OF 006 
 
 
people with links to southern Somalia and potentially with al-Qaeda 
- "those who want a greater Islamic state." 
 
¶27.  (SBU) Riyale told the Senator that despite the bombings, 
Somaliland continues the progress it has made in establishing a 
functioning government since 1991, "While southern Somalia was at 
war and in a state of anarchy."  He described the success as a 
testament to the compromises of all Somalilanders because above all 
else, they "made a commitment to solve their own problems."  Riyale 
made the case for recognition noting that if they can get direct 
assistance, Somaliland will be able to counter the extremism being 
propagated through madrassas across the region.  He also said that 
if Somaliland is recognized, it can play a role in southern Somalia 
as another buffer zone for Djibouti and Ethiopia.  Riyale noted the 
hypocrisy in the international community recognition of Somalia and 
the TFG, neither of which are functioning, but which will not 
recognize the functioning "state of Somaliland." 
 
¶28.  (SBU) Riyale told the Senator voters have been registered in 
four of Somaliland's six regions and that the last two regions would 
be completed in approximately one week. The Somaliland President 
said that the registration process, with identification cards that 
include fingerprints, will ensure that the March 2009 presidential 
elections will be free, fair, and transparent.  In their meeting 
with the Senator, the civil society leaders cited Somaliland as 
evidence that focusing on democracy provides a "way out of the 
chaos." 
 
¶29.  (SBU) PM Hussein said that while Puntland would be integrated 
in a unity government, "Somaliland would require a special 
approach."  The Prime Minister praised Somaliland's progress and the 
positive steps it has taken on elections and its democratic process. 
 The Prime Minister concluded, "It would be our preference that 
Somaliland is part of Somalia, but let us solve the Somalia problem 
first, come together with Puntland, and then initiate a dialogue 
with Somaliland."  President Riyale was unequivocal when he stated 
that "Somaliland made the union and tested it and there is no 
possibility for a greater Somalia."  The PM said that, ultimately, 
the recognition question would be left to the popular will of the 
Somalilanders and that there was a "possibility" they would stay 
with Somalia" 
 
¶30.  (SBU) Riyale maintained that Somaliland is different from 
southern Somalia, which never tried to reconcile "even the most 
minor issues.  The problem with Somalia is that everyone is trying 
to be a leader, but at the same time, they think the solution will 
come from outside."  He said that Somalia has no "final solution - 
only trial and error."  President Riyale concluded, "Somaliland will 
never reunite with Somalia and if they ever tried to force this, we 
are ready to fight to the finish - Somalia could never take 
Somaliland by force."  Riyale concluded that instead, Somaliland 
wants to help, with Djibouti and Somalia's neighbors, be part of a 
solution for Somalia. 
 
Positive Press Coverage 
----------------------- 
 
¶31.  (U) Senator Feingold addressed the Djibouti National Television 
and Radio and the Somali language press and answered several 
questions from journalists.  He also provided a separate interview 
to Voice of America's Somali Service.  His statement was carried on 
Universal Television and in several Somali-language media including 
newspapers and websites.  The Senator's press statement, issued from 
his office was disseminated by Embassy Nairobi to all of our Somali 
media contacts. 
 
¶32.  (U) Senator Feingold and Embassy Djibouti have cleared this 
message. 
 
RANNEBERGER