VZCZCXRO9105
OO RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #0107/01 0161548
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161548Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8261
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHMV/AMEMBASSY MONROVIA 0346
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUZEFAA/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 000107 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S Frazer 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - Precarious Calm in Mogadishu Following Ethiopian 
Withdrawal 
 
REF: 08 Nairobi 2755 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  Following the eagerly awaited withdrawal by 
Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) from Mogadishu, to date, 
there has been no intense fighting in Mogadishu by al-Shabaab or 
among rival armed groups.  The calm is attributable to Mogadishu's 
complex clan dynamic, public pressure, and intense lobbying by 
elders, religious leaders, and Alliance for the Re-liberation of 
Somalia (ARS) and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) officials to 
prevent various armed groups from renewing conflict.  TFG militia 
moved to occupy one abandoned ENDF position, while various armed 
factions directly or loosely allied with Sheikh Sharif's (ARS-D) and 
Hassan Dahir Aweys' Asmara (ARS-A) factions immediately occupied the 
others, promising to maintain security and calling the displaced to 
return to their homes. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Summary Cont'd.  Militias of the two ARS factions are 
patrolling separate neighborhoods, but reportedly crossing paths 
without violence.  With one exception in Mogadishu's Karaan 
district, neither faction has attacked the TFG.  On January 13 and 
14 residents poured into the streets to celebrate Ethiopia's 
withdrawal.  The TFG and ARS jointly organized a farewell ceremony 
for ENDF commanders at Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein's office. 
There is free movement of people and traffic throughout the city. 
On January 16, approximately 3,000 people assembled for a prayer 
service in Mogadishu stadium calling for an end to violence. 
Control in many areas is falling along the same clan lines that 
existed prior to the Ethiopian presence.  All agreed that 
international support is necessary to "reward" the calm and to 
maintain Mogadishu's precarious peace.  End Summary. 
 
All Celebrate ENDF Withdrawal 
----------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Between January 13 and 14, ENDF completed its withdrawal 
from Mogadishu.  Residents of northern Mogadishu poured into the 
streets to celebrate an Ethiopian departure that few believed would 
occur.  Although ENDF promised that it would inform the TFG-ARS 
Joint Security Committee (JSC) of its timetable, early morning on 
January 13 ENDF forces reportedly vacated some key positions in 
Huriwaa and Yaqshid neighborhoods in northern Mogadishu unannounced. 
 Also on January 13, Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein "Nur Adde" 
held a farewell and recognition ceremony for ENDF at his Mogadishu 
office.  The ceremony was jointly organized by the ARS and the TFG 
and was attended by high-level TFG, ARS, ENDF and AMISOM 
representatives.  Prime Minister Hussein welcomed ENDF withdrawal, 
terming it an "historical" moment for Somalia and cautioning against 
Somalia reverting into the path of bloodshed. 
 
¶4. (SBU) At the ceremony, Hassan Siyaad "Qorgab", ARS representative 
and Deputy Chairman of the JSC also welcomed ENDF withdrawal from 
Mogadishu.  In an apparent reference to the Djibouti Process, Siyaad 
said Ethiopia entered Somalia when the country was divided and ENDF 
is now leaving when it is united.  He also expressed appreciation to 
the international community for its support and urged Somalis to 
welcome ENDF withdrawal by allowing the forces an honorable and 
smooth exit.  ENDF force commander Gabre Yohannes Abate stated that 
the Ethiopian government intervened to support the Somali people and 
will continue to support them.  Yohannes stated that ENDF is 
withdrawing on the basis of the Djibouti Agreement.  Finally, the 
AMISOM Deputy Commander emphasized that there is no more excuse to 
shed more blood in Somalia now that former President Yusuf resigned 
and Ethiopian forces are leaving the country. 
 
Mogadishu Calm in Wake 
Of ENDF Withdrawal 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) With the exception of Digfer Hospital, which the TFG 
immediately occupied, armed militias identifying themselves as Union 
of Islamic Courts (UIC) immediately occupied all other positions the 
ENDF vacated.  These UIC militias were generally allied Sheikh 
Sharif's ARS-D faction or Aweys' ARS-A faction.  Contrary to some 
reports, these militias are not all "anti-government groups."  With 
one exception of a clash between an ARS militia commander and TFG 
police in Karaan, neither ARS faction has attacked the TFG.  The 
militias have not engaged in any armed confrontation between the 
various factions. 
 
 
NAIROBI 00000107  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) In preparation for the ENDF withdrawal, clan elders, 
religious leaders, and representatives from both the TFG and the ARS 
reportedly intensely lobbied the various armed factions in Mogadishu 
to avoid violence following the ENDF withdrawal.  In one example of 
Mogadishu residents publicly supporting peace, a group Hawiye/Haber 
Gedir women's leaders met on January 14 to promote the message that 
with Abdullahi Yusuf and Ethiopia gone, there is no more excuse for 
fighting.  Somali radio call-in radio shows have centered on 
prospects for violence if and when ENDF left the country.  Major 
media outlets have encouraged peace. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) On January 16, approximately 3,000 people assembled for a 
prayer service in Mogadishu stadium organized by a group calling 
itself "Peace and Mediation Clerics." All parties mixed freely and 
religious elders called for an end to violence.  The Islamic Courts 
Union (ARS-A and ARS-D) are reportedly jointly providing security 
for the event.  (Comment:  This cooperation between the ARS factions 
does not necessarily indicate reconciliation.  All our interlocutors 
told us this arrangement is only temporary, and relations among the 
groups could rapidly deteriorate in the coming days.) 
 
Public Calls for Reconciliation 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) With ENDF withdrawal, alliances in Mogadishu have shifted 
while groups are attempting to mend fractured relations.  Sheikh 
Abdirahim Isse Adow, the prayer meeting's primary organizer, spoke 
on behalf of "the Courts," and called for all Somalis to forgive the 
TFG for its alliance with Ethiopia.  Adow was responding to an 
announcement by the Banadir administration that it would assist all 
IDPs to return to their homes.  In another example of new-found 
tolerance, Sheikh Yusuf Mohamed Siyad "Indha Adde," a warlord and 
UIC defense secretary allied to Aweys's ARS-A, addressed Mogadishu 
residents at the Pasta Factory, a former ENDF stronghold.  Sheikh 
Abdikadir Ali Omar, Sheikh Sharif's deputy under the former UIC and 
an influential commander of an ARS-D allied militia, publicly 
addressed the same gathering just minutes later.  With ENDF 
withdrawal, there is little public support for continued violence by 
al-Shabaab, Ras Kambooni Brigade and other armed extremists in 
Mogadishu.  These groups, made up mostly of non-Hawiye, are 
perceived as "foreigners" to Hawiye-dominated Mogadishu. 
 
Fighting Could Quickly Resume 
----------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Despite this apparent detente, those like Indha Adde are 
unlikely to remain peaceful for long.  Though reportedly unpopular 
in Mogadishu, Aweys was purportedly seen in the capital, armed with 
a rifle and dressed in military fatigues.  Also calling himself a 
representative of "the Courts," Indha Adde remains opposed to the 
TFG, the ARS-D faction, and the Djibouti Process.  While some 
al-Shabaab are surely in Mogadishu, the group is not on the 
offensive.  On January 14, al-Shabaab leader and spokesman Mukhtar 
Robow announced that with Ethiopian withdrawal, al-Shabaab will turn 
its guns against AMISOM until it also leaves Somalia. 
 
Control Falling Along Clan Lines 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) According to our interlocutors in Mogadishu, with the 
Ethiopians gone, clans are reasserting control over their 
traditional neighborhoods. Both Qeybdiid and Salat Ali Jelle, TFG 
Deputy Minister of Defense, explained that militia loyal to ARS-A 
and ARS-D have positioned themselves in areas previously controlled 
by their sub-clans under the former UIC.  Habr Gedir/Ayr militias 
under Ethiopian nemesis Indha Adde have re-taken neighborhoods 
between the Livestock Market and Mogadishu Stadium.  Similarly, Habr 
Gedir/Salaeebaan militias allied to Sheikh Sharif have re-claimed 
the Wardhigley and northern stretches of Howl Wadaag neighborhoods. 
A Hawiye/Duduble sub-clan militia, led by Djibouti-based trader and 
Al-Barakat company chairman Ahmed Nur Ali Jumale, controls Bakara 
Market and its environs, strengthening his strategic interest in the 
business sector.  Hawiye/Abgal Sheikh Abdirahim Isse Adow, Sheikh 
Sharif's spokesman, is in southeast Mogadishu's predominantly Abgaal 
neighborhoods of Karaan and Abdi-Aziz. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) According to TFG Police Commissioner Abdi Hassan Awale 
"Qeybdiid", his and other TFG-allied Abgaal, Morasade and Habr 
Gedir/Sa'ad  militias control a swath of downtown Mogadishu from 
 
NAIROBI 00000107  003 OF 003 
 
 
Hodan district to the waterfront neighborhoods of Waberi, Hamar 
Jab-Jab, Hamar-Weye, Shingani, and Abdi-Aziz, including areas around 
the presidency and all five AMISOM bases.  Qeybdiid told us that the 
situation remains stable because Hawiye clan elders and clerics have 
discouraged Indha Adde and his ilk from fomenting violence.  But 
Qeybdiid warned that the situation could change quickly.  Abdirahman 
Dhagahtur, Banadir governor and Mogadishu mayor, lamented to us that 
AMISOM declined their request to deploy forces to areas vacated by 
ENDF, citing personnel constraints.  He appealed for urgent 
deployment of additional international troops or other security 
assistance to maintain the current calm and ensure violence doesn't 
resume. 
 
RANNEBERGER