VZCZCXRO1613
RR RUEHBZ
DE RUEHLG #0029/01 0211434
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 211434Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0243
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0290
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBZ/AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE 0004

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000029 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI ELECTIONS UPDATE - DELAYS AND DISPUTES 
 
REF: 07 LILONGWE 701 AND PREVIOUS 
 
LILONGWE 00000029  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The latest extension in Malawi's voter 
registration process will delay completion of the exercise to 
January 28, pushing the deadline for Presidential and 
Parliamentary nominations into early February.  With no 
decision yet on Muluzi's candidacy, potential delays from 
legal challenges will further compress a quickly evaporating 
election schedule.  Some candidates have protested the rise 
in nomination fees, a twentyfold increase from 2004, but the 
Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) insists the fees are needed 
to discourage non-serious candidates.  The EU is close to 
becoming the first confirmed international observer mission, 
with a scoping visit scheduled for early February.  In the 
meantime, the MEC declined to offer official approval of the 
Malawi Electoral Support Network's (MESN) plan to perform  a 
parallel vote tally (PVT).  The government of Malawi also 
released a statement against the idea of a PVT, claiming it 
would be answerable to no one if it published false results. 
MESN continues to pursue its plans, however, and has tried to 
better explain the process of a PVT to political parties and 
the government.  Comment: With controversy already arising 
over domestic observation activities, it is critical that 
MESN have well-trained observers and technical assistance. 
Despite significant donor interest, however, little funding 
has been identified to support MESN's domestic observation 
efforts so far. End Summary. 
 
Registration Extensions Continue 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The MEC has added an eighth two-week voter 
registration phase that will conclude on January 28.  The 
additional phase was necessary merely to complete 
registration in the Rumphi district of Northern Malawi, but 
the MEC also reopened several registration centers in the 
Southern region to allow more people to register.  Statistics 
through the end of December showed over 4.6 million people 
have registered to vote.  The total accounts for 82.6% of the 
estimated eligible voters in districts where registration has 
been completed.  The MEC still expects well over 5 million 
voters will be registered once the process is completed. 
 
Pushing Nomination Deadline into February 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Continued registration delays forced the MEC to push 
nomination deadlines back again.  Nominations, originally due 
in early January, will now be accepted the first week of 
February.  The deadline further forestalls a decision 
regarding former president Bakili Muluzi's candidacy.  MEC 
chairperson Justice Anastasia Msosa recently told the 
Ambassador that the MEC has not reached a position on 
Muluzi's nomination.  In any event, she expects the MEC's 
decision to be legally challenged and the Constitutional 
Court to make the definitive decision.  It is still unclear 
how fast the courts will be able to act and the potential 
remains for a drawn-out legal battle that might jeopardize 
the May 19 election date. 
 
Some Candidates Protest Nomination Fees 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Some candidates, most notably independent aspirants, 
are disappointed with the MEC's decision to significantly 
increase nomination fees.  The MEC set fees at $700 USD for 
parliamentary candidates and $3500 USD for presidential 
candidates.  The fees are twenty times higher than in 2004 
and represent a substantial hurdle in a country with an 
annual per capita income of less than $300 USD.  The MEC 
defended the fees as a way to deter marginal candidates who 
have a history of withdrawing just before the election.  The 
MEC hopes preventing these late withdrawals will lower the 
number of spoiled ballots which accounted for over 10% of all 
votes cast in some constituencies in 2004.  The MEC agreed to 
refund the nomination fees to any candidate that receives 
over five percent of the votes cast.  Malawian courts 
rejected a challenge over fee levels and upheld the MEC's 
right to set the fees as it saw fit. 
 
EU Close to Finalizing Observer Mission 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) A six-member European Union scoping mission will 
visit Malawi in early February to assess the potential for an 
international observer mission.  EU Head of Delegation 
Alessandro Mariani said the scoping mission was the final 
step before approval of an observer mission.  Mariani told 
the Ambassador that the potential EU observer mission would 
 
LILONGWE 00000029  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
include approximately 100 observers.  The MEC has already 
extended a formal invitation to the EU inviting the observer 
mission to come to Malawi. 
 
Parallel Vote Tally Plan Starts Controversy 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) After initially offering positive responses 
regarding domestic observation and a potential parallel vote 
tally (PVT), on January 7 the MEC informed the Malawi 
Electoral Support Network (MESN) that a PVT should not be 
conducted.  MESN had notified the MEC of its intent to 
organize a PVT in November and sought to sign a memorandum of 
understanding.  The MEC cited the implications of a PVT 
"particularly when there are differences in the results" as 
its reason for denying the request.  The MEC asked for MESN 
to continue to work together with the MEC at all stages of 
the elections, however. 
 
¶7. (SBU) After the response, the Ambassador discussed the 
utility of PVTs and other forms of domestic observation with 
Msosa in a January meeting.  The Ambassador highlighted the 
recent successful use of PVTs in Zambia and Ghana.  Msosa 
admitted that the MEC had no issue with MESN performing a PVT 
using official results, but it could not formally sanction 
the exercise.  Msosa believed that the lack of formal MEC 
approval could prevent foreign aid donors from funding MESN, 
effectively killing the PVT. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The MEC's response to MESN came after a late 
December media report on MESN's PVT plan.  The report led the 
ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) vice president, 
Khumbo Kachali, to say the DPP and the government would never 
allow a PVT.  In the press, Kachali further asked the MEC to 
reverse its acceptance of MESN's proposal.  At a January 13 
meeting between the MEC, MESN, and all political parties to 
address the issue, opposition parties, including the Malawi 
Congress Party (MCP) and the United Democratic Front (UDF), 
condemned Kachali's position.  At the meeting, all parties 
(including the DPP representative) supported a PVT as a way 
to ensure all stakeholders are satisfied with the MEC's 
results management.  However, the next day the government 
issued an official statement saying it was dismayed by plans 
to establish a PVT.  The statement from the Office of the 
President and Cabinet said a PVT would be answerable to no 
one if it published false results. 
 
 
MESN Will Press Forward With or Without Support 
----------------------- ----------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Comment:  We believe the government and the DPP 
still lack a complete understanding of what a parallel vote 
tally entails.  Kachali's comments indicated he believed MESN 
wanted to actually count ballots, rather than tabulating 
official polling center results.  MESN, for its part, has 
tried to reach out to all parties and the government to 
explain the process, but may require help to assuage fears. 
If the government does not relent, opposition parties will 
undoubtedly claim government interference with the MEC, and 
will be less likely to accept the official results in May. 
Post, along with the British, German, and Canadian aid 
organizations, remains interested in supporting MESN's 
efforts for domestic observation, including a potential PVT, 
but so far only Canadian funding for a National Democratic 
Institute (NDI) technical assistance scoping mission has 
materialized.  Even without donor funding or explicit MEC 
approval, MESN says it remains committed to running a PVT on 
polling day.  Given the level of controversy the topic has 
already raised, we believe the PVT must be well run and that 
support from an experienced and respected international 
organization such as NDI can go a long way toward 
guaranteeing its success.  End Comment. 
BODDE