VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKL #0004/01 0060555
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 060555Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2192
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS KUALA LUMPUR 000004 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
FOR EAP/MTS AND INR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MY
SUBJECT: UPCOMING PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION A LITMUS TEST 
FOR UMNO 
 
 Summary and Comment 
------------------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) In a local political contest that will be closely 
watched in the capital, the Malaysian constituency of Kuala 
Terengganu will hold a by-election on January 17 to determine 
the successor for the late Member of Parliament (MP) Razali 
Ismail.  The ruling United Malays National Organization 
(UMNO) and the opposition Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS) 
have each fielded capable but very different candidates to 
replace UMNO-member Razali.  Although an opposition victory 
will not shift the balance of power in parliament, this 
by-election remains very important: it will serve as a litmus 
test by ethnic Malays on the performance of the BN 
government, pitting UMNO's longevity against PAS's resurgence 
in this ethnic Malay stronghold.  UMNO, therefore, is 
investing substantial resources into this by-election, with 
Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak personally heading the UMNO 
candidate,s campaign operation.  End Summary and Comment. 
 
 
National Audience for a Local Race 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Razali Ismail, a two-term Kuala Terengganu UMNO MP 
who was also the Deputy Minister of Education, died of a 
heart attack three weeks ago.  When an incumbent MP dies in 
office within the first three years of a five year term, the 
Malaysian Constitution calls for a by-election to fill the 
vacant MP seat.  UMNO and PAS have each named candidates to 
contest the seat, along with one independent.  The candidates 
will officially begin their 10-day campaigning period after 
registering on January 6, culminating with the by-election on 
January 17. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The late Razali Ismail won his MP seat by only 648 
votes over his PAS opponent out of nearly 65,000 cast in the 
March 2008 general election.  The state of Terengganu, which 
is 95% ethnic Malay, has long been a battleground of Malay 
ideology between UMNO and PAS.  PAS controlled the state 
government from 1959-1962 and again from 1999 until 2004, but 
the state has otherwise been under UMNO control.  This 
particular constituency has the largest concentration of 
ethnic Chinese in the state, consisting of 10% of the 
population.  Although the Terengganu Chinese largely 
abandoned the BN in the March 2008 campaign, they also did 
not show up in great numbers to vote for the opposition.  If 
there is another close race, the voter turnout from the 
ethnic Chinese may tilt this race in favor of PAS.  The 
Democratic Alliance Party (DAP), an opposition party largely 
made up of ethnic Chinese, has vowed to campaign heavily 
within the constituency on PAS's behalf. 
 
 
The Opportunity and the Candidates 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The by-election presents an unexpected opportunity 
for PAS and the opposition coalition People's Alliance (PR), 
who have relatively little to lose and all to gain from a 
contest in this UMNO stronghold.  Public dissatisfaction with 
UMNO has only grown stronger since the March 2008 general 
elections, and an UMNO defeat in their own heartland would 
send a signal throughout Malaysia that ethnic Malays are fed 
up with UMNO.  UMNO clearly recognizes that their national 
reputation can be damaged by this single contest, as Deputy 
PM Najib Tun Razak personally named the UMNO candidate for 
the by-election, and embassy contacts told Poloff that Najib 
himself will personally oversee the election operations. 
Another contact informed Poloff that several weeks ago UMNO 
booked all of the hotel rooms in Kuala Terengganu for the 
week prior to the by-election, both to lodge the numerous 
supporters that they are bringing in to campaign on its 
behalf, and to prevent the opposition from doing the same. 
 
¶5. (SBU) UMNO has selected party stalwart Wan Ahmad Farid Wan 
Salleh as its candidate.  Farid recently ended his tenure as 
the Deputy Home Minister and as a Senator to run for MP. 
Farid, who is also the UMNO Kuala Terengganu division chief, 
is a nationally known politician with a lot of clout within 
UMNO.  (Note: He is a former US IVLP alumnus. End Note.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) PAS's candidate, Abdul Wahid Endut, is not 
nationally known but very highly regarded within Terengganu. 
A five-term state Assemblyman who double-hats as the PAS 
state treasurer, Abdul is an extremely popular leader at the 
grassroots level.  Abdul is considered a compromise candidate 
between PAS's moderate and conservative factions, which each 
initially proposed different candidates before agreeing on 
 
Abdul.  PAS hopes that this will be the first step to 
regaining power at the state level, where they lost control 
in 2004. 
 
¶7. (U) Poloff's will be in Kuala Terengganu for the run-up to 
the election, and will report on the results and national 
impact shortly thereafter. 
KEITH