VZCZCXRO6671
RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCI #0022/01 0280947
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 280947Z JAN 09
FM AMCONSUL KOLKATA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2250
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/DIA FT BELVOIR
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 2754

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KOLKATA 000022 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SA/INS (FITZGIBBONS) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PTER SOCI PREL PGOV IN BG
SUBJECT: ASSAM ELECTORAL PRIMER - ETHNICITY, ALLIANCES AND TERRORISM 
 
REF: KOLKATA 302 
 
KOLKATA 00000022  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Ethnicity and migration in the northeastern 
state of Assam will continue to be a key issue in the state 
during the upcoming national elections.  The Congress Party is 
confident of maintaining its current number of parliamentary 
seats in the state contingent; however, the relatively new 
regional party Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF) may cut into 
its Muslim voter constituency.  The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 
has reached an understanding with the regional party Asom Gana 
Parishad (AGP) to jointly contest the elections, but the AGP is 
privately concerned about the alienating effect of the BJP's 
Hindutva policies on its supporters.  State government 
officials, politicians and representatives from the business 
community are concerned about the possibility of external 
linkages in the October 30 bomb blasts and reduced level of 
national attention on Assam in the aftermath of the November 26 
Mumbai attacks.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Politicians, business leaders and journalists have 
identified migration from Bangladesh and ethnicity as key 
electoral issues in the upcoming national elections.  Assam is 
one of the most diverse states in India, with over 100 
ethnicities and three official state languages (Assamese, Bodo 
and Bengali) in addition to the national languages (English and 
Hindi).  Approximately two-thirds of the population is Hindu and 
a little less than a third is Muslim, with high Muslim 
concentrations in the state capital of Guwahati and the 
districts bordering Bangladesh.  The remaining population 
consists of small Buddhist, Christian and tribal animist 
minorities.  Ethnic Assamese constitute approximately one-half 
of the state's population, Bengalis one-quarter and tribals (one 
of which is the Bodo tribe) and other ethnicities the remaining 
one-quarter. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Various tribal groups have long advocated, both 
peacefully and violently, for political recognition and a 
greater share of the economic opportunities.  The state and 
central government have sought to appease numerous insurgent or 
separatist movements through tribal recognition and, in some 
cases, the creation of new Indian states.  In 1963 Nagaland 
separated from Assam and in 1972 Meghalaya, Manipur, Tripura, 
Arunachal Pradesh (then Northeast Frontier Agency) and Mizoram 
followed suit.  According to a think tank there are almost 40 
insurgent movements in Assam, 12 of which are active, with the 
United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the National 
Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) the most active.  Both ULFA 
and NDFB seek to create sovereign states outside of the Indian 
Union, based either on geography (ULFA - Assam) or ethnicity 
(NDFB - Bodos), and have employed violence to achieve their 
political objectives.  Although NDFB (since 2005) and a portion 
of the ULFA (since 2008) are currently observing a ceasefire 
with the GoI, individuals affiliated with the organizations are 
alleged to have been involved in several terrorist attacks in 
2008, including the October 2008 bombings (Reftel). 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The first large scale demographic changes in Assam 
occurred in 1841 when the British plantation owners brought 
laborers from Bihar for tea cultivation.  Bengali migration from 
adjoining areas, such as Mymensingh in eastern Bengal (now 
Bangladesh), began in the early 19th century with the British 
annexation of Northeast India.  Indian Independence in 1947 and 
the 1971 Indo-Pak war that resulted in the birth of Bangladesh 
prompted additional waves of Bangladeshis.  In the late 1970s 
ethnic Assamese, under the banner of the All Assam Students' 
Union, protested the significant increase in registered 
non-Assamese voters, which they contended were illegal 
immigrants.  This movement, popularly referred to as the Assam 
Agitation, resulted in the 1985 Assam Accord whereby the 
organization agreed to March 1971 (they had previously insisted 
on 1951) as the cutoff date for determining legal residency.  In 
2005 the Supreme Court struck down previous Assam-specific 
immigrant friendly legislation guaranteed by the Assam Accord as 
unconstitutional and re-affirmed the Foreigner's Act of 1946 
which places the onus on the individual to prove his legal entry 
and right to remain in country. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Today, there are no reliable estimates of the 
percentage of legal versus illegal Bangladeshis in Assam.  There 
is a growing concern amongst the ethnic Assamese community, 
which is overwhelmingly Hindu with a small Muslim minority, that 
the increase in Bangladeshis through alleged illegal migration 
is threatening the state's sense of identity.  Post contacts are 
also concerned by the porous border with Bangladesh and the 
alleged cross-border travel and support that northeast insurgent 
groups receive from Bangladesh-based individuals and 
organizations. 
 
Congress Confident of Success in Parliamentary Elections 
 
KOLKATA 00000022  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) The Congress Party led by Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi has 
been in power in the Assam state government since 2001.  Assam 
has 14 Lok Sabha (lower house) parliamentarians (Congress 9, AGP 
2, BJP 2 and independent 1).  On December 11, representatives 
from the Assam state Congress Party confidently told Poloff that 
they expected to retain their nine Lok Sabha seats in the 
upcoming national elections.  They opined that the AGP's 
electoral alliance with the BJP would alienate some of the AGP's 
supporters.  They acknowledged that the AGP had recently made 
inroads with tea laborers, a firm Congress constituency, but 
maintained that they would still win 90 percent of the votes 
from this group.  While the vice president of the state Congress 
Party emphasized the Congress-led national government's 
accomplishments, including the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear 
Agreement, other party functionaries present at the meeting 
acknowledged that the agreement would not be used in the 
campaign as it had little relevance to the common man in Assam. 
 
BJP and AGP Reach an "Understanding" 
 
¶7. (SBU) In a meeting with PolOff, the BJP claimed to have 
reached an electoral alliance with the regional AGP for the 
upcoming national election.  In contrast, the AGP described 
their agreement as an "understanding" rather than "alliance" 
with the BJP, expressing concerns about the BJP's Hindutva 
policies possibly alienating voters.  Neither the BJP nor the 
AGP predicted electoral gains for their parties and appeared 
more interested in preserving their existing number of seats. 
The AGP, both in public and in private, has railed against 
Bangladeshi migration and the failure of the Congress-led state 
government to conclude its investigations into the October 30 
blasts and improve the state's internal security.  The leader of 
the opposition, AGP's Chandramohan Patwary, told PolOff he is 
particularly concerned about the fall-off in national interest 
in the October 30 terrorist attacks.  He claimed that his recent 
trip to Delhi was instrumental in mobilizing the AGP's December 
10 walkout from national parliament and the successful call for 
a separate parliamentary debate on Assam (which was held on 
December 15.) 
 
AUDF - Not an Islamic Party 
 
¶8. (SBU) The AUDF is perhaps the most optimistic of the 
political parties operating in Assam about its electoral 
prospects.  Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, a businessman, founded the 
AUDF in October 2005 to serve the interests of the ethnic and 
linguistic minorities in Assam.  The AUDF working president 
Hafiz Rashid Choudhury stressed to PolOff that the AUDF is not a 
"Muslim party" and that two of its ten state assembly members 
are non-Muslim.  The working president confided that in the 
event that AUDF wins one or two parliamentary seats it will 
consider expanding its presence to other states, such as Uttar 
Pradesh, with large "ethnic or linguistic" (i.e., Muslim) 
minorities.  Mohammed Salim, (CPI-M) MP from West Bengal and 
member of the party's Central Committee, told Poloff in January 
2009 that the AUDF had approached the CPI-M about jointly 
contesting the elections in Assam; however, the CPI-M was not 
interested in the prospect.  (Note: The CPI-M may be intrigued 
by the short-term electoral gains possible by an AUDF tie-up in 
Assam; however, it appears reluctant to do anything that would 
encourage a minority or regional party in the neighboring state 
that could threaten its stronghold in West Bengal.) 
 
"External Engineering" in the October 30 Terrorist Attacks 
 
¶9. (SBU) On December 12 a state minister, who also serves as the 
official government spokesman, privately told Poloff that the 
government is convinced that there was "external engineering" in 
the October 30 terrorist attacks in Assam with the ULFA or NDFB 
providing logistical support.  He questioned an apparent Indian 
double standard in the importance of confronting cross-border 
terrorism on the western front with Pakistan and the eastern 
front with Bangladesh.  Poloff's business, political and media 
contacts during the December 2008 trip uniformly cited some type 
of external assistance (inferring, but never explicitly 
mentioning, support from individuals based in Bangladesh); 
however, none were able to provide definitive proof. 
 
Comment 
 
¶10. (SBU) The ethnic Assamese community continues to be 
concerned that an expanding Bengali Muslim population from 
Bangladesh threatens Assamese identity.  While terrorists have 
generally avoided targeting religious establishments in Assam, 
there is a potential for communal violence in Assam if Hindu or 
Muslim religious or community venues are targeted in future 
terrorist attacks in order to exploit this underlying ethnic 
 
KOLKATA 00000022  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
sentiment.  There is a belief, perpetuated by some of the Indian 
media, that individuals based in Bangladesh (but not sanctioned 
by the Government of Bangladesh) are equipping or training 
northeast insurgent groups; however, there has been no official 
GoI pronouncement on the matter.  The opposition AGP and BJP 
parties may include terrorism in their campaign platform and 
blame the state government for its inadequate response. 
However, it is not clear how effective this strategy will be 
because the public anger and revulsion in this northeastern 
state is directed against the insurgent groups and those 
allegedly providing them assistance across the border.  To win 
in Assam, Congress needs to demonstrate that it can provide law 
and order and maintain broad-based secular appeal to prevent the 
regional parties (AGP and AUDF) from siphoning off voters based 
either on ethnicity or religion. 
PAYNE