VZCZCXRO4523
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #0030/01 0121021
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 121021Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9027
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000030 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG
SUBJECT: EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 12 
 
¶1.  (U) The items contained in this report consist principally of 
spot information from various sources.  This report is not 
exhaustive, nor can all the information contained therein be 
confirmed at this time. 
 
CNDP Internal Discord 
--------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) MONUC military officials recently discussed the 
Nkunda-Bosco split with members of the International Facilitation, 
including Goma PolOff.  According to MONUC G-2 sources in Goma, most 
of the top CNDP commanders have joined with Bosco.  (Note: Other 
sources claim the opposite, that Nkunda still has the loyalty of the 
majority of CNDP commanders.  End note.)  Bosco reportedly does not 
foresee a political or negotiating position for himself; he is 
apparently more comfortable in a military role.  He has, however, 
not put forward an alternative candidate to head the CNDP. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The G-2 and other officials noted to Goma PolOff that CNDP 
soldiers in the Masisi region have long been dissatisfied with 
Nkunda's leadership and are likely to support Bosco.  Separately, 
other sources claim that General Numbi enticed or bribed Bosco to 
break with Nkunda, while others have speculated that Kigali now sees 
Nkunda as a liability following release of the Group of Experts 
report. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) According to Goma sources, when the visiting UK State 
Minister for Development raised the CNDP rift with President Kabila 
on January 8, Kabila allegedly responded that Bosco now appears to 
be more reasonable, while Nkunda is seen as a "hardliner."  Kabila 
reportedly confirmed that Bosco has expressed a willingness to 
cooperate with the FARDC. 
 
 
Nairobi Talks 
------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) A member of the GDRC team at Nairobi sent Embassy Kinshasa 
a text message noting that the talks are continuing, with the 
government pursuing a strategy of informal discussions with the CNDP 
negotiators to determine more precisely the basis of CNDP demands 
and how to move forward in a constructive manner.  (Note: A more 
substantive readout has not yet been forthcoming, either because 
there is nothing more to report, or because of a need to keep the 
discussions close-hold.  End note) 
 
¶6.  (SBU) According to MONUC sources, Special Envoy Olesegun 
Obasajno's two-hour meeting with Nkunda on January 9 focused on 
Nkunda's demand to include the presidents of the DRC Senate and 
National Assembly in the Nairobi negotiations.  The two also 
discussed CNDP accusations that the FARDC had moved forward toward 
CNDP lines near Kibati. 
 
 
FDLR Issues 
----------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The Rwandan and Congolese Defense Ministers held a series 
of meetings in Goma and Gisenyi in recent weeks, though the 
discussions have been closely held.  Goma PolOff chaired a meeting 
of the Joint Monitoring Group Task Force on January 9, and requested 
a briefing on the discussions from the Rwandan and DRC 
representatives.  Neither official was willing to provide details, 
however, stating only that MONUC and the international community 
would be informed of the plan for operations against the FDLR at an 
appropriate time.  The International Facilitation team later 
speculated that Kinshasa and Kigali have come up with a plan to 
pressure the FDLR by using Bosco's forces, while Rwanda acts to 
isolate Nkunda. 
 
 
Security Issues 
--------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) General Lafontaine, commander of a Mai Mai group in the 
northern part of North Kivu, has reportedly established road blocks 
to collect "taxes" on travelers entering his militia's zone of 
control. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Several Mai Mai Pascal troops were reportedly killed by 
CNDP forces during skirmishes on January 8 in Magenge. 
 
 
LRA: Operation Lightning Thunder 
-------------------------------- 
 
KINSHASA 00000030  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶10.  (SBU) According to MONUC, the LRA staged a second attack on the 
town of Bangadi, northwest of Dungu, on January 4.  Most of the 
town's residents had already fled before the attack.  UPDF has 
informed MONUC that 25 LRA troops have been killed in the current 
campaign. 
 
 
Humanitarian Issues in Orientale Province 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) IDP estimates in Orientale Province vary.  OCHA reported 
an IDP population of 62,243, including more than 13,500 in the 
Doruma area and the majority of the remainder in or around Dungu 
town.  According to UNHCR, however, the December LRA attacks 
displaced more than 50,000 individuals, bringing the total IDP 
population since September to approximately 100,000. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) OCHA estimates that Tadu now hosts 3,500 individuals who 
fled Faradje following the December 25 LRA attack.  According to 
UNICEF, more than half of the population of Faradje, approximately 
12,500, has returned home. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) The USAID/DART Team Leader plans to travel with a 
humanitarian delegation to Kisangani to discuss with provincial 
authorities a "safe haven" strategy for delivering and distributing 
food and relief to displaced populations in Orientale Province. 
 
GARVELINK