VZCZCXRO5137
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0094/01 0261423
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 261423Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2768
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000094 
 
DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/C 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: NCP ALLEGEDLY ARMING ITS DARFUR ALLIES AS ICC LOOMS 
 
REF: A) KHARTOUM 92 
B) 08 KHARTOUM 1745 
C) 08 KHARTOUM 1387 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: In preparation for potential unrest in Darfur, 
several sources reported that the NCP has begun a large-scale arms 
distribution program in all three states of Darfur.  In Nyala, an 
SPLM official alleged that the NCP is paying families to accept 
Kalashnikovs.  Meanwhile, Fur IDP leaders expressed fear about 
potential retribution following the announcement of an ICC arrest 
warrant against Sudan's president.  In El Fasher, an NCP political 
activist boasted that the GOS distributed over 1,000 pistols to 
students and government employees in January.  A report from El 
Geneina indicated the government has begun a similar program in West 
Darfur as well. End summary. 
 
------------------------ 
NYALA: JIHAD FOR USD$150 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) On January 23, Omer Abdelrahman, Minister of Agriculture in 
South Darfur and a member of the opposition SPLM, told poloff that 
NCP officials began officially rearming its Popular Defense Forces 
in South Darfur in January in preparation for possible unrest 
following the upcoming announcement of an ICC arrest warrant against 
Sudanese President Omar El Bashir.  In addition to the thousands of 
janjaweed militiamen already recruited to the Central Reserve Police 
and the Border Intelligence Forces in late 2008 (reftel B), the 
local government has begun approaching Arab civilians within Nyala 
to enlist them as potential armed allies, according to the outspoken 
opposition politician.  "They say you should have to go for jihad, 
and then swear on the Koran to the NCP," Abdelrahman said, relating 
that each consenting family is paid 300 Sudanese pounds (about 
USD$150) and given one Kalashnikov.  "Now I must carry my 
Kalashnikov with me, because I don't know if I will return," he 
said, fearful for his own life and the potential for an NCP 
overreaction.  "In defense against Khalil Ibrahim and Minni Minnawi, 
we will kill ourselves fully!" 
 
¶3. (SBU) Meeting with poloff in Nyala on January 22, a group of Fur 
leaders expressed fear of the renewal of intra-tribal warfare led by 
the NCP following the announcement of the ICC arrest warrant.  Dr. 
Salahedeen Mohamed, who had served as the NCP-designated Maqdoum 
(Viceroy) of the Fur tribe before breaking with them over the August 
25, 2008 Kalma IDP camp massacre , told poloff that he was "worried 
and afraid" that the GOS would mobilize Darfuri Arabs to enact 
revenge against Darfur's African tribes "worse than before."  Having 
recently severed his association with the NCP, Mohamed said he puts 
no faith in UNAMID to protect the Fur people either in the IDP camps 
(such as happened when 33 IDPs were killed by SAF at Kalma camp in 
August,) or in vulnerable rural areas.  Dr. Mahmoud Adam Daoud, a 
Fur intellectual and professor of French at the University of Nyala, 
and two other Fur leaders in attendance, repeated what SPLM leader 
Abdelrahman had told poloff.  They claimed that the distribution of 
arms to janjaweed and Arab allies in South Darfur had begun in 
January; one added that even his Arab neighbor had received a 
Kalashnikov this month. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
EL FASHER: 1000 PISTOLS FOR STUDENTS AND BUREAUCRATS 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Abdel Nur Mohammed Adam, an NCP political activist in North 
Darfur, told polasst in El Fasher on January 25 that in the first 
week of January, the NCP distributed weapons to university and 
secondary students belonging to the NCP's youth branch, asking them 
to defend the government in the wake of civil unrest following the 
ICC arrest warrant's issuance.  Adam alleged that the government had 
distributed approximately 1,000 pistols in and around El Fasher, and 
should unrest break out in El Fasher, Adam predicts that the NCP 
will overreact.  The NCP intends to call on students, government 
employees and the Sudanese Armed Forces to protect the president and 
NCP members.  As justification for the weapons distribution, Adam 
added that the NCP claims members of Hassan al-Turabi's People's 
Congress Party in El Fasher have weapons as well, and that they are 
expected to attack the NCP when the ICC announces its decision. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Speaking with poloff in El Fasher, two Darfuri civil 
society activists voiced their fear over the coming months for IDPs 
and civilians in North Darfur.  Khalil Tukras, a lawyer and 
well-connected human rights activist in El Fasher, said that while 
the majority of NCP allies in North Darfur are already armed, 
weapons have been distributed since September 2008 to NCP-allied 
tribes currently living in IDP camps.  Tukras added that he was 
"sure the GOS will react like they did at Kalma camp" (reftel C). 
Ahmed Adam Yousif, a lawyer and director of the independent human 
 
KHARTOUM 00000094  002 OF 002 
 
 
rights NGO Ajaweed, was visibly concerned when he told poloff, "The 
GOS is insisting on fighting to the end."  While noting that some 
Arab militias have begun to turn against the NCP, and that IDPs had 
already begun to celebrate the ICC decision, Yousif lamented that 
"there is no light at the end of the tunnel. There is no solution in 
the near future." 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
EL GENEINA: REPORTS INDICATE SIMILAR DEVELOPMENTS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶6. (SBU) On January 25, poloff was briefed by Bastienne Karel, a 
Sudan watcher for the Netherlands MFA who had recently returned from 
El Geneina and found similar developments regarding the wide-scale 
distribution of arms in West Darfur.  According to Karel, a drastic 
deterioration in security is expected following the ICC announcement 
because the GOS has begun rearming Arab militias.  Karel passed 
along reports that the GOS has flown in arms "on a large scale" 
through the new airport and is currently arming NCP-allied sheikhs 
in the IDP camps, relying on them to distribute arms to their IDPs 
(Note: Darfur's IDP camps are riven by ethnic rivalries with 
smaller, weaker African tribes allying with the NCP because of fears 
of more numerous and better armed tribes, such as the Fur and 
Zaghawa. End note).  Karel added that Arabs not formally part of the 
GOS security apparatus are now receiving military personnel serial 
numbers in addition to weapons, although payments for future 
services reportedly have not commenced. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Even regime allies are wondering if things may be spiraling 
out of control. Notorious janjaweed warlord Musa Hilal told CDA 
Fernandez on January 20 as much by phone in Darfur (some accounts 
say Hilal himself has been involved in weapons distribution, a 
charge he vociferously denied).  Hilal cryptically noted that 
"everyone is getting ready to defend what they have from everyone 
else" in the coming weeks. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment: As usual in Darfur, hard evidence is hard to come 
by, and much of this information should be evaluated carefully as 
many of our contacts' claims appear to be based on rumor and 
conjecture.  But the prevalence and frequency of these claims in all 
three states of Darfur is concerning.  While the GOS attempts to 
weaken its opponents (especially JEM) and demonstrates its military 
might by conducting aerial and ground attacks in South and North 
Darfur, UNAMID remains incapable of acting as a stabilizing force. 
If the allegations reported in this cable are true, the addition of 
new weaponry to the mix in Darfur will undoubtedly lead to more 
bloodshed in the long run and may even strengthen the rebels as it 
will fuel the region's arms trade. There is also no guarantee that 
Darfur's alienated and fractious Arab tribes, currently allied by 
naked self-interest with the NCP, will remain loyal. While we do not 
expect the doomsday scenarios to come true, an uptick in violence is 
quite possible in the coming months, and it will be important for 
the international community to urge restraint on all sides in the 
aftermath of the ICC announcement. End comment. 
 
 
FERNANDEZ